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Fantasy Football Traffic Cop: Week 16 lineup advice

scott pianowski
Fantasy analyst
·5-min read

The following is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo's fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, you can subscribe for free here.

Start-sit questions can be anxious for even the best fantasy managers. Here's a traffic-light report to help get you ready for Week 16.

✅ Green Light

It took a while for the Jaguars to steer into their best offensive player, but we're finally there. Thomas Jr. has absorbed a juicy 36 targets in the last three weeks, and he's turned that into a 22-267-3 return. The Raiders won't have DL force Maxx Crosby, and the Las Vegas secondary has fallen apart in recent weeks.

Isaac Guerendo isn't expected to play this week, which means the Niners move down yet another notch on their depth chart. Kyle Shanahan has regularly proven that he can scheme almost any back into fantasy relevance. Miami's rushing defense is an average matchup.

Although Mayfield's roster tag is close to 100%, he's still only being started in roughly half of Yahoo leagues. Let's fix that number. Mayfield averages 258.4 passing yards per game and his touchdown equity is safer now that Mike Evans is healthy again. The Cowboys have allowed the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks.

You'll want to do a cursory weather check, but otherwise it's all systems go for Goff, who's turned up the passing volume to combat all the injuries the Lions have on defense. And with David Montgomery out indefinitely, it's possible the Detroit playbook will have more passing plays ready at the goal line.

He's coming off his two best games of the year, rekindling the magic he and Davante Adams routinely showed in Green Bay. The Sunday matchup against the Rams has some pinball potential — forget how the Rams played last week, focus on the LAR-Buffalo game two weeks back.

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🫤 Yellow Light

It's a shame we can't put him in the green light section, but the Saints are massive underdogs at Lambeau Field and you worry about game script. Nonetheless, if Alvin Kamara (groin) is scratched as expected, Miller probably has a safe path to 12-15 touches, and he's looked decent in his opportunities the last two weeks. Running back touches are forever a fantasy currency.

He was locked up in the first meeting (just one catch), but I suspect OC Kliff Kingsbury will make key adjustments in the divisional rematch, McLaurin's sizzling form of late (20-248-5) makes him unbenchable in my mind.

Strange gobbled up 11 catches last week (we love that), but his long reception was merely nine yards (we shrug our shoulders). This is what a checkdown artist looks like. I figure Strange already has 5-6 catches in his back pocket this week, so if your league features some form of PPR scoring, Strange is in play as a sleeper tight end. There's nothing worrisome about the Las Vegas seam coverage.

It's not easy to trust the Chicago passing game, but at least the target tree is narrow — Allen has 41 targets in his last four games, and four touchdowns over that span. He got the Lions for 73 yards and two scores on Thanksgiving, and the Detroit defense has suffered even more injuries since then.

Normally this would be an auto-start play — Jeudy is on a heater and the Bengals struggle in the secondary. But it's possible the move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson unplugs the entire Cleveland passing game. Jeudy isn't a proactive pick for me in Week 16.

🛑 Red Light

He's been back for three weeks, but he's yet to shake Kareem Hunt — their usage was 50-50 last week against Cleveland. And with Patrick Mahomes surely less than 100%, the Kansas City offense won't have its usual buoyancy.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson at Bills: He's been sluggish since returning from a foot injury, and it's possible Antonio Gibson offers more juice in the passing game. With New England a heavy underdog at Buffalo, game flow could push Gibson (a legitimate sleeper) into more work this week.

The Niners have lost the skeleton key to Samuel's game— he's been outside the top 50 for five straight weeks, with a yardage high of 35. His last touchdown came in Week 6. Our game is about the numbers, not the names.

The Packers have been terrific since the bye but the focus has been the running game — Love is averaging just 23 passes per game over that five-week sample. New Orleans is 14-point underdogs on Monday, so game flow is unlikely to be Love's friend. His last top-10 fantasy game came in Week 7.

Two weeks ago Cooper absorbed a juicy 14 targets, but that number shockingly dropped to zero in the win at Detroit. Perhaps more alarming, Cooper was used as a rotational player, playing only 46% of the offensive snaps. The Bills are 14-point favorites over the Patriots, which suggests Buffalo can probably ice this game with a run-heavy approach.

The Falcons made the right move mercifully benching Kirk Cousins, but I suspect the Atlanta coaching staff will want to onboard Penix with a conservative, low-volume game. It's also possible the mediocre Giants won't put up much of a fight. The efficiency should be fine with Penix, but I'm concerned he'll throw about 20-23 passes, which caps his fantasy ceiling.