Winning is the most reliable way to earn respect in international rugby union. Frustrating defeats and false dawns are ultimately empty. And, for all of Scotland’s promising progress over recent years, they now need to collect substantial scalps.

The nature of Test level, where margins are fine and certain styles trouble different opponents to varying degrees, means that teams will have their own views on any given rival. Scotland are on a riotous run of just one loss in seven against England, for instance. Speak to Ireland supporters, though, and they will tell you that Gregor Townsend’s charges are chronic underachievers.

Successive pool-stage exits at the World Cup have been a blight, even if the 2023 draw was farcical. There is the sobering fact that Scotland have never breached the top two of a Six Nations tournament. While they cannot change that over fixtures against Fiji, South Africa, Portugal and Australia, there is reason to believe this will be an autumn to launch them.

Silverware from last season is the first source of encouragement. Scotland boast a healthy contingent from Glasgow Warriors, who landed the United Rugby Championship thanks to two memorable play-off victories on the road. Munster were beaten 17-10 at Thomond Park before Franco Smith’s men laid siege to Loftus Versfeld in the final.

Translating sense of belief from club scene

Befitting the Warriors’ free-flowing traditions, slick tries punctuated both matches. Sebastián Cancelliere finished a wicked counter sparked by Tom Jordan, Rory Darge and Huw Jones against Munster. A week later in Pretoria, Jones capped off a team move that had travelled from left flank to right flank and back again.

A flinty, fit and well-drilled pack, however, proved to be the foundation. Forwards muscled up to bag two close-range tries against the Bulls and sealed the game by repelling a meaty drive from their hosts. Scott Cummings, the 27-year-old lock who started all five rounds of the 2024 Six Nations, was right in the thick of things.

Townsend will tap into the cohesion of a nicely balanced Warriors back row comprising Matt Fagerson, Darge and Jack Dempsey. Tighthead prop Zander Fagerson, like several colleagues, should make next summer’s British and Irish Lions tour. Sione Tuipulotu is another front-runner for that trip and has assumed the Scotland captaincy ahead of this campaign. A bristling carrier with polished passing skills and a cute kicking game, he is a complete centre.

Translating a sense of belief from the club scene, then, is where Scotland will begin. Front-line full-back Blair Kinghorn is another figure eager to catch that habit. He joined Toulouse from Edinburgh last December and promptly picked up a Top 14 and Champions Cup double. By sharing in pivotal moments in high-stakes contests with Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Thomas Ramos, Julien Marchand and others, Kinghorn is beginning to back himself more firmly.

“In a really big moment, you might think ‘I better not do that, it’s a bit 50-50’,” he says. “They [the Toulouse players] just back their confidence completely. They know their ability, they know players around them, they trust everyone. It’s just that sometimes they pull out moves from the training pitch in the biggest games.

“People will say ‘the French love to play rugby and chuck the ball around’, but that’s what they do in training, so it’s part of their skills and their mind-set and the way they get the best out of each other. It’s dead fun to be a part of, to be honest.

“We’ve got players in the [Scotland] squad that have the ability to do that,” Kinghorn adds. “The big thing I’ve noticed [at Toulouse] is players trusting their skills in big moments and not shirking it. That’s probably something I’ve been guilty of in the past; when it gets a bit tight in big games, getting a bit more reserved and not backing yourself as much. Something I’m learning from these boys is to trust yourself and play your rugby.”

Number of players should be reaching their peak

Finn Russell has been an emboldening influence for Scotland, yet the fly-half can only shoulder so much creative responsibility. Townsend hopes that the summer tour to the Americas, undertaken without Russell, will have proved beneficial as a depth-building exercise. Jamie Dobie, another Warrior, was involved in all four matches against Canada, USA, Chile and Uruguay. He started two on the wing and covered scrum-half, his primary position, for the others. The upshot is that Dobie, a strapping athlete, now seems a great option if Townsend fancies a six-two split of forwards on the bench.

At 32, Russell appears more measured than ever on the pitch. The return of Darcy Graham, now 27, adds another game-breaker to Townsend’s backline. Sione Tuipulotu and Kinghorn are also 27, with scrum-half Ben White a year younger. Duhan Van der Merwe is 29 and Huw Jones 30. A number of excellent operators should be close to their peak concurrently. Although Kyle Steyn is out, Kyle Rowe is in electric form.

Any lingering pain from last season’s Six Nations can be channelled as well. Three losses by four points or fewer, each of them going down to the last play, stung badly. Scotland are seventh on World Rugby’s rankings ladder at the moment, behind both England and Argentina – teams they would not fear.

Following this weekend’s opener against Fiji, where Townsend will be fielding Glasgow and Edinburgh players plus Dylan Richardson of the Sharks because of club release rules, an encounter with the world champions on Nov 10 represents a significant marker. Scotland went to the last World Cup ranked fifth, which made a mockery of the draw.

South Africa stifled them with a superb defensive display before Ireland sent them home. Yet, if it is any indication of how Scotland are regarded, the Springboks acknowledge their potential.

“They’re playing according to their DNA with a lot of flair but also the discipline to know when to kick and run,” explains Ox Nché. “You have a lot of their guys getting to maturity, with a lot of Test caps now. There’s new energy alongside experience. It’s going to be a very good challenge.”

Damian de Allende cites Glasgow’s defeat of the Stormers in Stellenbosch, a week after they rescued two bonus points from a loss to a loaded Sharks team, which included Eben Ezetebeth and Siya Kolisi as well as Nché, as more encouraging signs for Scotland.

“I’m excited to play against them and see the Edinburgh atmosphere again,” says De Allende. “It’s going to be physical, as it always is. I just think maybe they’ll risk it a bit more… maybe ‘risk’ is not the right word. Maybe they’ll have a go a bit more than they have done in the past.”

As De Allende suggests, this does feel like a season for Scotland to go from plucky banana skin to consistent force. It is time for them to cause a stir.