Advertisement

Football 301 Playbook: Lions' injuries have jarred open the NFC — and the Packers and Vikings can pounce

nate tice
Staff writer
·21-min read

The Detroit Lions were looking like a force. It was Dan Campbell’s magnum opus, with an offense hitting body blows against overwhelmed defenses before capping off drives with designer head shots and a defense that snuffed out running games and dared offenses to beat Detroit's tight man coverage.

But the Lions, unfortunately, have suffered from an injury bug that has seemingly sent every type of player at every position group to the infirmary. While the offense is still one of the best in the league, even potentially being able to withstand the loss of running back David Montgomery, the defensive improvement (currently ranked fifth in FTNFantasy’s defensive DVOA statistic) has been a key reason for their viability as a Super Bowl favorite. The Lions are still the betting favorites in the NFC and tied as the overall favorite (with the Bills) at +425 to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM’s book, which speaks to how good their offense has been and how they’ve been able to withstand previous losses.

The Lions have overcome losing star players like Aidan Hutchinson and key contributors like Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez among others. How they overcome the losses of more needle-movers like defensive tackle Alim McNeill (who played at an All-Pro level this season) and feisty cornerback Carlton Davis, a key component of their suffocating man coverage, will determine their viability as a contender.

The Lions' injuries have opened the door for other teams to jockey for position for not only the No. 1 seed in the NFC — which comes with a week to rest, heal and guarantee playing indoors for Jared Goff — but also for their own claim at another division title in the NFC North. The Eagles are nipping at the Lions' heels for conference favorite (currently +450 to win the Super Bowl) and currently hold a 41% chance at the No. 1 seed, according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator.

Philadelphia's fantastic defense, dominant run game and explosive pass game has built as good of a case as anybody as Super Bowl favorites, but I wanted to focus on two other teams in the Lions' division — the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers — and their own cases as contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.

Trailing the Lions and Vikings by two games with three to play and currently without tiebreakers to help, the Packers are essentially locked into being a wild-card team for the playoffs. Green Bay is comfortably the youngest team in the NFL, which provides a neat narrative framing for its improvement throughout the season, on both sides of the ball, especially since the Packers' Week 10 bye.

The Packers' offense is a pleasure to watch. They major in several different run concepts in the run game, and run each with equal aplomb. They can attack downhill with runs like Duo, and trust their line to get movement with double-teams and Josh Jacobs to burst through the open hole that presents itself.

They can attack on the outside with toss and zone plays, getting positive blocking from their tight ends (led by brawny Tucker Kraft aka Doomguy) and a wide receiver room that is willing to scrap. Christian Watson has become a pleasant surprise as a blocker, going from outright poor at it to someone who's willing to fit up on defensive backs at the point of attack.

The Packers also feature their wide receivers as runners, primarily with multi-threat Jayden Reed getting the touches. They lead all NFL teams with 10 rushing first downs and eight explosive runs (gains of 12 or more yards) on their designed runs to WRs this season. Three offenses are tied for second with four explosive WR runs. Reed himself has six.

These runs are offshoots and concepts that are great at controlling overzealous defenders who start honing in on the Packers' primary runs. And a way to tie into things like the Packers' spinner package, which features split backs, motion and plenty of backfield eye candy after the snap. Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich (whose head coach profile should be growing based on the past two seasons) do a phenomenal job of tying their plays together, and tweaking the motions and backfield action to change who gets the ball or who is just a ghost on a weekly basis.

It was difficult to narrow down the exact plays I wanted to showcase in this article. The Packers, especially lately, have put that much good stuff out there with their designs and execution. How their players and coaches answered when Jordan Love missed time with an injury and had to start Malik Willis — a player acquired in the same month before his first Green Bay start — was one of the better coaching jobs by any team this season. And the Packers didn’t just throw the run-heavy game plans in the trash when Love returned. Instead, they took pieces of their spin action series and implemented it into their base game plans. (And also inspiring every team that played against the Colts afterward to steal from the Packers' own Week 2 gameplan.)

On top of this varied and well-designed run game that ranks ninth in early down success rate since the Week 10 bye, there’s Love, the trick shot-addicted quarterback who has never faced a tight window that he doesn’t like to throw into. With Love, the Packers' offense ranks as a top-10 passing attack in terms of success rate (10th) and EPA per dropback (tied for eighth with the Eagles) and averaging the second-most overall yards per play on offense (6.3, behind only the Ravens). But this is a young team with a young offense, especially in the pass-catching room. And young teams and players take time to gel, grow and work through early season botches and missteps. The Packers neatly fit that narrative of an offense starting to put it together after a deep breath over the bye week.

How has that Packers passing game been performing since Week 10? I’m glad you asked. It’s been exceptional and the performance is matching the intent of this offense: a willingness to pound the rock, daring safeties to creep up, and then having their big-armed QB launch throws over, under and around defenses.

Since Week 10, the Packers rank first in explosive pass rate (a comical 20.2%, for reference), first in EPA per dropback, third in dropback success rate (behind only the Lions and Dolphins), and third in EPA per play (behind only the Bills and Lions) ... while also featuring a top-10 efficient run game and Love taking sacks at a minuscule 3% rate (third in the NFL among qualifying QBs). The latter is an astounding stat that speaks to Love’s sack avoidance, considering how aggressive the Packers' pass game is.

This is an offense with a formula for January, especially with pass-catchers like Watson, Kraft, Reed and Romeo Doubs all playing strong football in recent weeks (and tight end Luke Musgrave potentially returning soon). I trust this unit, even with its youth, to be up for the weekly task of facing playoff game plans, something the Packers proved capable of in last season's playoffs.

This unit has added even more layers to its game planning (and a more dependable run game with Jacobs). It’s not just an explosive and exciting unit that lives off highlight plays. The minutiae of this offense has solidified into something reliable — and scary for opponents to defend.

Packers' defense has also been sharp post-bye

The Packers' defense has also started to sharpen its play after the bye week. A unit that has relied heavily on turnovers (shoutout to safety Xavier McKinney) has started to figure out a formula, and particular players, that work.

The Packers currently rank eighth in defensive DVOA and sixth in weighted DVOA, which weighs recent performance more heavily. Since Week 10, the Packers rank second in the NFL in sacks (18) and eighth in defensive success rate. They are steady against the run and pass, too. These are underlying stats that match the eye test. It’s not all perfect, but it’s a unit that feels like it has found something that works.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has primarily been a single-high aficionado as a play-caller throughout his career. And while he still has majored in Cover 3 in his first season as the Packers' defensive coordinator, he also has started to use Cover 2 as his primary change-up. Actually, he’s been using Cover 2 so much since the bye — the Packers' use of Cover 2 nearly double from 15.8% to 27.9% (easily the highest rate in the NFL) after Week 10 — that it can be more accurately categorized as another fastball in Green Bay's arsenal.

Hafley, and especially his defensive backs, have been doing a great job of disguising their main coverage look, Cover 3, and then rotating to Cover 2 at the snap of the football. It’s a great way to dissuade defenses from trying to run the ball into what they think will be a loaded box. It’s also two coverage looks with completely different answers for the quarterback to find after the snap. The clips below against the Seahawks show how the Packers almost baited Geno Smith into a sideline throw, not anticipating that there would be a cloud (Cover 2-playing) cornerback in the flat.

And while the Packers' pass rushers aren't elite, they’re talented enough across the board to take advantage of any offensive line weaknesses. (There’s always at least one. Trust me. Ask the Seahawks, as the Packers' defensive tackles took turns on poor rookie right guard Sataoa Laumea). The Packers have toned down their blitzes on late downs, going from the seventh-highest rate before the bye week to tied for 20th after Week 10. That ties into what they’re trying to do on the back end: winning with sound coverage and trusting their pass rush rather than leaving themselves susceptible to big plays.

When you throw in the play of the Packers' defensive rookies like Edgerrin Cooper (Green Bay’s best linebacker) and Evan Williams, it’s a formula for an improving unit that looks like it can at least hold up against the better offenses as the weather gets colder.

The Vikings are also an exciting team on both sides of the ball, featuring the dice rolls of Sam Darnold and a defense that keeps quarterbacks and offensive line coaches from getting any sleep in the week leading up to a game.

Unlike the Packers, who are essentially locked into a wild-card spot, the Vikings have plenty to play for over the final three weeks. Their 12-2 record not only puts them in a position to snatch the division title from the Lions, but also a chance to nab the No. 1 seed with all of their remaining games being against NFC teams (Seahawks, Packers and a pivotal Week 18 matchup against the Lions).

It’s not a shock that a team with Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison would have an explosive passing attack. And the Vikings, sure enough, rank third in explosive pass rate this season. What is notable is how much better the Vikings' run game has been this season compared to years past.

They're running the ball at a higher rate than they ever have before under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Their 42.3% designed run rate ranks 14th this season, significantly above their 35.1% and 33.9% run rates of the previous two years that were among the lowest in the NFL. I like to attribute this to the Vikings adding the dynamic Aaron Jones this offseason and finally being able to take advantage of the soft boxes and cloud coverages (i.e. Cover 2 and Cover 6) that the Vikings get on a weekly basis because of the threat Jefferson provides.

A stat that I have liked to look at this year to encapsulate just how much more explosive the Vikings' run game has been is the max speed that Minnesota's running backs have reached on their runs. Vikings RBs have 58 runs in which they reached a max speed of 15 mph or greater in 2024, hitting that mark on 18% of their runs. In 2023, Vikings RBs had only 30 such runs the entire season, a 9.2% rate that’s essentially half of what (primarily) Jones has been doing this season.

And their run attack’s efficiency has seen an uptick as well. The Vikings are currently 10th in early down rushing success rate on RB runs, with their overall rushing success rate jumping nearly 2% from the previous two seasons. This has been key for this offense because it gives the Vikings the balance that is necessary to win in the playoffs as teams get hyperspecific with their gameplans and do their best to take away an opponent's main method of production. It’s also a way to help keep Darnold from spiraling into his worst tendencies.

Those tendencies, however, also make this Vikings team so dangerous, especially in the sudden-death world of the NFL playoffs. Darnold is willing and able to try just about every throw. Sure, he will take sacks, and he will get punished at times when he tries things he shouldn’t. But when Darnold is clicking, it’s a fireworks factory.

The Vikings' passing game can rapidly get the team back into games and Minnesota can barrage opponents with its downfield passing attack. When paired with the Vikings' bolo punch defense, it can lead to huge runs that are more akin to a basketball team that uses a full-court press the entire game. Sacks don’t cripple this offense as much as other teams because of O’Connell’s willingness to let Darnold shoot himself out of any problem. That keeps defensive backs on their toes even in third-and-extra-long situations.

Every metric with Darnold behind center this year has been better than when Kirk Cousins was at the helm. Some of this is because of the offensive improvement (Hockenson, Jones and Addison) and O’Connell’s own growth as an offensive play designer. But Darnold’s YOLO mindset actually fits a Vikings team that tries to pillage teams like their namesake.

While Cousins throws a beautiful deep ball (or at least did), the Vikings' explosive pass rate has jumped nearly 4% this season. Darnold has also been more efficient as a passer, too, with a dropback success rate also jumping from 45.6% on snaps with Cousins the previous two years to 48.6% this season with Darnold, which ranks seventh in the NFL.

This completely matches how this Vikings' offense feels. Which is dangerous. Sure, there are moments of too much aggression from this team, but at any time the lid might blow open and there’s Justin Jefferson catching a 97-yard touchdown. Like the Packers, this is a formula to win in January. A reliable run game that makes defenses honor rushing plays and a passing attack that can create chunks and first downs in any situation.

Darnold’s ability as a runner is also a new dimension to this offense that Cousins didn’t provide. Darnold has scrambled for 15 first downs this season. Cousins scrambled 16 times total over the previous two seasons. His 1.6% scramble rate in 2022-2023 just a third of what Darnold’s rate, which is around league average among QBs.

Darnold has been a beneficiary of favorable game scripts this season, how the Vikings have performed when losing (especially in recent weeks like in the second half in Week 13 against the Cardinals), and their lack of reliance on play-action. (The Vikings actually run play-action on 16% of their dropbacks this season, a slightly above league average rate. In 2023 with Cousins, the Vikings easily led the NFL in play-action rate at 21.2%.) That's all made me more optimistic of how this team will perform against a slate of tough opponents and when they have to use straight dropbacks more often.

The Vikings' offensive line in protection makes me a little bit apprehensive to just say everything is squeaky clean with Minnesota's new explosive run game and swashbuckling QB. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season-ending injury, which forced the Vikings to trade for Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson to shore up the blindside for their playoff push.

Robinson in pass protection as a Viking has been shaky, to put it mildly. Darrisaw’s one-on-one pressure rate allowed was 11%, slightly above the league average among NFL left tackles. Robinson’s pressure rate allowed as a Viking: 18.6%. That's the highest mark among all offensive tackles this season in Next Gen Stats’ database.

That’s not at all! While the interior of the Vikings' offensive line is more than solid in the run game, there is a definite weakness at their center and right guard positions and how they hold up in protection. Right guard Ed Ingram is a big glaring weak spot on this offensive line in particular, just like he’s been throughout his career as the Vikings' starter. Ingram has allowed the highest pressure rate among any guard in the NFL this season, a combination of mental lapses, inconsistent hand usage and the Vikings' appetite for big plays. Center Garrett Bradbury is slightly better, allowing the second-most pressures in 1-on-1 situations among his position. Only besting the Colts, who have played multiple rookies at center instead of a former first-rounder.

While the Vikings' downfield-heavy attack will naturally lead to more pressures as their offensive line has to hold up for longer, Ingram and Bradbury’s play this season correlates more with the pressure rates allowed in prior years than a schematic explanation. And when paired with this type of offense and a QB with a penchant for headhunting, this could be a bubble that pops the Vikings' playoff chances if their protection plan isn’t able to come up with something to mitigate any leakiness. (Further credit to the Vikings, and Packers for that matter, for how detailed and varied their pass protections are with their downfield passing despite a lack of elite offensive line talent. Other teams should be taking note of how they get it done.)

The Vikings' defense, meanwhile, has made it a slog to run against, taking away concepts to run because of how much they move after the snap. Daring offenses into whether they want to get into a boom-bust type of game when they run the ball or work to find more sustainable answers.

This unit ranks second in DVOA and sits in the top 10 of the alphabet soup of metrics that I like to look at. By now, everyone knows what Brian Flores likes to do: take advantage of protection rules and creating havoc and big plays for the defense, even against the better-coached teams.

Or fake blitzes enough that it causes offenses to fold upon themselves at the mere threat of bringing more than four.

I’m really keen on seeing what Flores will unveil in the playoffs and in the key games down the stretch. He’s already shown a penchant for adding adjustments based on who he goes against. But QBs willing to hang in the pocket, sort out the final coverage, and launch throws can give the Vikings issues. And while they don’t have to worry too much about facing that during the regular season, the playoffs are a different animal, and what knuckleballs and gyroballs that Flores comes up with has me just as intrigued as anything else in the NFL once those big games start getting played.

The Packers and Vikings are tied in Super Bowl odds as the current seventh-favorites. But these are two teams with the formula on offense: an efficient run game, explosive passing game, and inspired coaching, with the defenses that give them a chance to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NFC.

The Eagles are a wagon, the Lions still have a dominant offense and hard-playing defense, and whoever emerges from the NFC West will have an offense that can swing with anyone (especially the Rams). But I think that these two teams from the NFL's black-and-blue division have a formula, possibly the formula, to make a run.