Forget the group stage – Euro 2024 starts now

Spain are the only top side at Euro 2024 largely satisfied with how their group stage went, but everyone else would still nod along to manager Luis De La Fuente's message. That is to basically forget everything that has happened so far.

It’s a feeling deepened by the first real break of the tournament, following an intense start. After some squads packed three matches into eight days, teams like Austria now wait a full week for their next fixture. Managers have been glad of that, to the point it almost represents a break in the tournament, too.

“It is a new competition starting for us,” French manager Didier Deschamps said. It might almost be called the real European Championships now, right down to how it features just 16 teams in the way it used to. "We'll see the real potential of every team," De La Fuente added.

Given that over 70 per cent of the matches were used to eliminate just a third of the field, the modern group stage is almost less a final qualifying round than a warm-up. Except, this group stage has considerably conditioned how Euro 2024 now looks. It may also decide it.

If concentration of quality used to be the Euros’ best feature, there has never been so much quality concentrated on one side. It is arguably the most lopsided any international knockout stage has ever been, if also strikingly similar to last season’s Champions League. Germany, Spain, France and Portugal probably looked the best possible semi-final quartet after the second round of games, but only two can make it that far. They're all on that side, which also features the story of the tournament in Georgia, a recent contender in Belgium, as well one of the highly capable mid-tier teams in Denmark. Slovenia, as we have seen, aren’t exactly easy to play.

There are some obvious consequences to this. Big teams are going to go out early. Those who make it through could be exhausted.

On the other side, underperforming or unconvincing teams like England and Italy have more space to find rhythm and form. At least one country will enjoy a rare chance of a truly historic run and maybe something more, but it could even be two. There is a focused excitement in the Austria and Switzerland camps.

There will also be some unseen or unexpected consequences. As De La Fuente said, “I don’t think we’ve seen the real quality of certain teams yet”. It’s why he stresses to forget the group stage. Big games can suddenly bring out more in the biggest teams. If France are to meet Portugal in the quarter-final, for example, the challenge might prove the charge they need. Even a meeting with Belgium may be enough.

At the same time, the reason the draw is like this isn’t because of any quirk in the format. It’s because a lot of teams haven’t been that good. France should be on the other side but have struggled to score, and look like they’re almost suppressing their immense talent. The same has of course been said about England.

Deschamps would abrasively insist that approach is about getting through the competition and ensuring they have enough to play right to the end but there’s a fair question of whether he has simply overly restrained his players. “Potential” has been the word used by a lot of managers, including both De La Fuente and Deschamps. The draw may well now dictate whether certain teams can reach it, since a tough fixture at the wrong moment can abruptly stop a campaign.

All of this still points to a possible wider theme of Euro 2024. For all the fair talk of 24 teams diluting quality, there does look to have been a levelling out at this point. Very few of the top squads are fully convincing. All have issues which bring them down. Below that, however, a lot of mid-tier sides have this solid base of both tactical approach and technical quality that makes them much more competitive. Over half of the wins in the group stage, 12 of 22, were by just one goal. Only three featured victories by more than two goals. Two of those – Spain 3-0 Croatia and Romania 3-0 Ukraine – were more down to specific tactical circumstances rather than any gulf in quality. The only rout was Germany’s 5-1 evisceration of Scotland, and the hosts haven’t come close to the same level since.

Flaws have instead become apparent, as is evident with almost everyone so far except Spain. The Spanish, however, have been in this very position before and suddenly seen every single flaw come together at once. Their game against Georgia is one of the most eye-catching knockout ties, in how it’s the team of the tournament so far against that story of the tournament so far. That stands out along with Austria-Turkey as a game that could potentially have a lot of goals.

Otherwise, a lot of last-16 ties look like they might develop along that narrow path. It’s easy to see matches like Germany-Denmark, Portugal-Slovenia, France-Belgium and England-Slovakia becoming tough but hard-fought victories for the more fancied sides.

If they do come down to such margins and go later and later, however, that’s when upsets gradually become more likely.

Circumstances outside tactics and the pitch will have further influence. Another theme of this competition has been the noise and not just that surrounding problem squads like England and France. A lot of it has come from the welcome return of hundreds of thousands of fans travelling to a tournament, with many of those from countries experiencing rare qualifications. Georgia’s victory over Portugal was perhaps the event of Euro 2024 so far.

There’s then the effect of the break itself. Managers feel they finally have space to work with fully integrated squads for the first time. It may see tactical plans properly realised. It may bring surprises. “We've got a little break that will do everyone good,” Deschamps said.

And, just as there is a split in the tournament now, there is a split between the example of the two previous champions from the 24-team Euros.

In 2016, Portugal transformed, going from a team who couldn’t get going to one who developed this gradual momentum during the knockout stages. At Euro 2020, Italy immediately announced themselves as the team of the tournament from the opening game and pretty much stayed like that. They did falter later on but the force and confidence they’d developed kept them going.

All of the remaining teams have these precedents to draw on. They also know this is now something new.