The four biggest challenges Nottingham Forest must handle in Champions League quest
Nottingham Forest find themselves in a good position with 25 games of the Premier League season gone.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are third in the table and have a realistic chance of securing European football. They are also only two wins away from a Wembley semi-final in the FA Cup.
Nevertheless, last weekend’s 2-1 loss at Fulham made it successive league defeats on the road for the Reds. It has led to questions about whether they have the staying power at the top end of the division.
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Forest will look to bounce back when they take on Newcastle United at St James’ Park on Sunday (2pm kick-off). Heading into the business end of the season, NottinghamshireLive analyses some of the challenges facing head coach Nuno.
Squad depth
When clubs named their updated 25-man Premier League squads earlier this month, the Reds had a couple of spaces spare. They were one below the permitted quota for the first half of the season anyway but with Andrew Omobamidele and James Ward-Prowse departing, and only Wayne Hennessey added, they are now at 23 players.
Under-21s do not count towards that total but Eric da Silva Moreira is really the only one among that group involved in the senior set-up. It has led to some debate over whether Nuno has the strength in depth to compete on two fronts.
More than once since the winter transfer window closed the Portuguese has insisted he doesn’t have any concerns on that front - as long as everyone stays fit. But the last few games have underlined just how little leeway Forest have.
It is in attacking areas where the Reds are particularly light. Taiwo Awoniyi’s absence at Craven Cottage meant the visitors did not have a striker to come off the bench. Much is hanging on top-scorer Chris Wood staying injury-free.
Other than re-signing Hennessey on a short-term deal and bringing in young defender Tyler Bindon as one for the future, Forest did not strengthen during the winter window. Doing no business was generally seen as being better than simply adding for the sake of it, but it does mean there is minimal headroom.
Tactical tweaks
After the final whistle in the capital, Nuno admitted his decision to switch to a back three “didn’t work out”. It was entirely understandable he had opted for that formation, given it worked perfectly in the 7-0 thumping of Brighton and Hove Albion, but the same XI yielded a very different outcome on Saturday.
Nuno has got plenty right this term. He has come out on top in numerous tactical battles, not least against title-chasing Liverpool boss Arne Slot at Anfield. Last weekend felt like a slight misstep, though, particularly as the change to a four-man defence came when the visitors were 2-1 down. It felt like a move that should have been made at half-time, when the score was 1-1.
“There are so many things I would do differently now. Now it is about looking at the game and preparing for the next one. It is always the same,” Nuno said in his post-match press conference.
For the most part this term, Forest have gone with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Going with three at the back has tended to come late on in games with the aim of seeing out a result. It would come as little surprise if the visitors revert to what has served them well for much of this season when it comes to Sunday’s clash.
If only it were as simple as choosing the right system every week, though. The Fulham defeat also showed how any kind of drop-off in standards can be punished in the Premier League.
Crucial run
Will the next few weeks be decisive for the Reds? Fulham marked the start of a sequence of league fixtures against teams Nuno’s men lost to in the first half of the season.
Newcastle are next up, followed by Arsenal and Manchester City at home. Next month’s FA Cup fifth round tie with Ipswich Town is also just around the corner.
Nothing will be decided or determined during that run of league games; there will still be plenty of points to play for at the end of it. Nevertheless, it does have the makings of being an important period.
The Magpies and the reigning champions are among the teams with designs on catching Forest in the table. Indeed, Pep Guardiola’s side are now just three points adrift.
Not so long ago, the Reds felt the benefit of momentum when they were on a six-match winning streak in the league. More recently results have swung one way then the other, with a heavy loss at Bournemouth followed by the hammering of Brighton and then defeat to the Cottagers. Getting a run going again is the aim for Nuno.
Handling expectations
Back in the summer, if Forest had been offered any kind of European football hands would have been speedily snapped off. After successive relegation battles, any kind of progress would have represented a good season - let alone the prospect of a European adventure.
Because the Reds have spent so long in the top echelons of the table, any hint of the team flagging might come with an air of slight disappointment for some. But it shouldn’t.
A place in Europe of any kind would still be an incredible achievement, regardless of how the coming months pan out. And in any case, it would be unwise to write Forest off for the Champions League.
This group of players have already shown they have got plenty of character, grit and determination. They are also a tight-knit bunch, and that team spirit will be vital.
Nuno has maintained a level head throughout. Whatever the result, his demeanour has been the same and his attention has quickly turned to the next task.
Calm heads will be needed in the run-in. Before then, Forest will be eager to get back to what they have been good at.
