England have had some tough results on the field lately and things are about to get even gloomier off it. Next Monday the Rugby Football Union’s council members will be formally presented with the annual accounts for the 2023-24 financial year amid expectations of potential record losses at what was once the world’s wealthiest union.

Among those awaiting the figures with particular interest is Francis Baron, who spent 12 years as the RFU’s chief executive and was at the helm when England won their first – and only – men’s World Cup in 2003. Since leaving Twickenham, Baron has become increasingly concerned about the state of the union’s finances and is predicting “very bad news for the game” when the figures are unveiled.

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While fewer home games – and thus less income – in a World Cup season has been an obvious contributory factor, Baron’s view is that the situation is fast approaching a critical point. “Things have got to change,” he warned this week. “I don’t know what the final figure is going to be but the lowest [predicted overall loss] I’ve heard is £36m. The game has got to wake up to the fact we’re not in a great position, to put it politely.”

In no particular order Baron points to a combination of mediocre management, over-priced funding agreements with the Premiership clubs, insufficient investment in stadium maintenance and the RFU’s supposedly gamechanging deal with the private equity firm CVC Partners. He describes the latter “as an appalling deal” and believes surrendering almost 15% of the union’s future broadcast revenues to a finance company will have increasing long-term effects exacerbated by declining TV rights values.

“If you continue making losses you rapidly lose the confidence of the banking market and your shareholders. Ultimately someone has to be held to account. I’ve been shown some long-term forecasts suggesting the RFU is not expecting to make a profit for almost 10 years. You can’t go on like this.

“The direction of travel is wrong – and has been clearly wrong from a business and financial point of view for a few years now. It isn’t getting better, it seems to be getting worse. That’s why I and others are alarmed. Everybody is too scared to go public on it. I am because it hurts me a lot to see the finances of the union in such poor shape. We should be the most financially secure union in the world. We were in my time, we clearly are not that now.”

The RFU will counter that a significant 2023/24 loss was expected and planned for as part of a four-year overall cycle and a spokesperson insisted this week the union “is in a strong financial position”. In September, however, it informed staff it would be making about 40 redundancies despite the uplift provided by the contentious rebranding of the iconic Twickenham name to Allianz Stadium in a deal worth over £100m. Sue Day, the RFU’s chief financial and operating officer, will also be leaving next month to join the Football Association.

Informed voices such as Baron, though, were calling for a major rethink at the union long before Covid turned everything upside down. “I became concerned in 2018 and so did a number of other former senior officers of the union,” says Baron. “I did a 50-page financial report analysing all the issues and my concerns and submitted it to Andy Cosslett, the chairman of the RFU board at the time. Andy did not disagree with my analysis and asked me to make some recommendations which he would take to the board. I don’t think they took up any of them. I then did a follow-up report in 2019 because the situation was clearly getting worse. And since then it’s been downhill all the way.”

The recently signed Professional Game Partnership with the leading clubs worth £264m is, in his view, another cautionary tale. “I’m sure there’s a lot of good stuff in there but the point is this: we can’t afford £264m. The last deal I did with the Premiership clubs in 2008 was worth around £90m over eight years. I was astonished when they signed a new one for £200m in 2016. It was almost double what we were paying before, for basically no major improvement in terms of player management. And this one is 30% more again.”

He says the aforementioned Cosslett warned six years ago in his 2018 report to members that the “PGA now appears costly”. In the 2017-18 financial year the RFU declared a loss of £30.9m, a “record” now poised to be overtaken, which led to the previous CEO Steve Brown leaving Twickenham.

“I believe the union has not been managed as well as it should have been,” says Baron. “They are ignoring advice they have been getting from a number of people, not just me. This is not a one-off. The history of loss-making has been going on for a number of years.”

With its stadium now in need of a multimillion pound redevelopment, due to start in 2027, and television revenues in decline, Baron also has first-hand experience of the increasing costs for England fans. Having had his entitlement to privilege membership removed in 2018, he recently bought four tickets for family members and friends to attend this month’s Test against New Zealand. “When the ticket office said ‘Francis, it’s going to be £229 each’ I thought they were pulling my leg. When you add on travel, food and drink it’s becoming a £1,200 day for four people. I don’t think that’s sustainable for loyal club members.”

It does not help, either, when England are losing but Baron’s concerns go well beyond the national team’s prospects against Japan this Sunday. “I’m worried about community game participation. You need a solid base to support all levels of the pyramid. With the community game’s share of investment having fallen from 50% to less than 30% the base of the pyramid is becoming a little shaky. Looking at the RFU’s current financial position, I can’t see where additional union support is going to come from. I spent 12 years at the RFU. Somebody has to speak up. It’s sad to see the state the union is in now.”