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From Deep: Did anyone see these 3 early-season fantasy basketball trends coming?

dan titus
Fantasy analyst
·4-min read

The three-ball has become arguably the staple of scoring in the NBA — so we figured we'd take some shots from way downtown, too. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down the three things fantasy managers need to know. Or, he'll break down multiple three-point pieces of advice, analysis and more — it just depends on how open he is From Deep.

In today's season debut edition, I'll discuss three teams doing three unlikely things through the first week (plus) of the NBA season.

The Bulls have been running the fastest-paced offense in the NBA through four games, a significant development under HC Billy Donovan.

Unlikely to the fullest.

Last year, the Bulls ranked 28th in the league (96.7) in Pace and were primarily middle-of-the-pack during Donovan's tenure.

So what's changed?

Not having to initiate offense in the mid-range through DeMar DeRozan is the first thing that comes to mind. The Bulls have been getting more possessions through quicker decision-making and ball movement, as their passes per game increased from 286.7 per game last season to 314.6 per game so far this season, per NBA Advanced Stats. While DeRozan's subtraction typically would result in more volume for Zach LaVine, Coby White and Nikola Vučević, their shot volume is consistent with last season. The difference is LaVine, White and company are attempting more 3s — a consistent theme we've seen this season across the NBA. The Bulls are averaging 44 3-point attempts per game, which is top-three in the league.

From a fantasy perspective, Vučević and LaVine's numbers are improving from a year ago, while White has established himself as a 19-4-4 player. Josh Giddey's playmaking and facilitating are working well, as he's pacing to have his best fantasy season. He's currently sitting at 122nd in per-game value in category formats.

The question is, will this fast-paced, 3-point-focused strategy be sustainable? We'll see!

It's easy to attribute Charlotte's early season success to the LaMelo Ball effect; the Hornets are a completely different team when Ball is in the lineup. The last time LaMelo Ball played in more than 50 games was the 2021-2022 season, and the Hornets finished eighth in Offensive Rating that year. When evaluating this season, however, a couple of areas stand out besides the phenomenal play from Ball — the Hornets' new-found commitment to offensive rebounding and second-chance opportunities.

Looking back at last season, the Knicks had an uncanny ability to clean the glass despite being bottom-10 in true-shooting percentage in the NBA. Those additional opportunities on offense helped the Knicks finish the year seventh in Offensive Rating.

With a retooled offensive unit getting a substantial boost from the play of fantasy waiver wire gems Tre Mann and Nick Richards, we have yet to see what this offense can look like when fully healthy. Brandon Miller is still nursing a hip injury, Miles Bridges isn't playing well, plus there's still nothing on Mark Williams' return from a foot injury.

And yet, this team is somehow top-10 in offensive rating.

Nick Richards is basically becoming the Isaiah Hartenstein of last season, pulling down 4.8 offensive rebounds per game. Interestingly enough, Richards and Mann are averaging the most second-chance points per game in the league, at 6.0 and 5.8, respectively.

If the Hornets continue putting in work on the offensive glass and get their main guys healthy, Charlotte could be one of the most unlikely fantasy-friendly teams this season.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Just over a week into the season, it appears that Orlando has switched up its offensive identity from a team that barely attempted 3s to one of the league's best. Last season, the Magic ranked 29th in the NBA in 3-point attempts and dead-last in makes per game. It's no surprise their 3-point percentage was bottom-10 in the league, too. The lack of 3-point shooting was a glaring weakness in their offense.

Fast-forward to this season, the Magic are attempting the sixth-most 3s (42.6) and are tied for seventh in 3s made (14.8) per game. Orlando brought in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to help with their spacing and 3-point shooting, but he's yet to get going, hitting just 11% of his four 3-point attempts per game. The most apparent improvements have come from Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Between the trio, they had been attempting six more 3s per game and hitting them at a higher rate than last season. Unfortunately, Banchero suffered a torn oblique Wednesday against the Bulls and will be re-evaluated in four-to-six weeks. Orlando's defense remains its calling card but if this increase in 3-point shooting continues while Banchero is out, it will boost the fantasy value of Suggs and Wagner (assuming they continue to knock them down of course).

In a related aside, seven players in the NBA are attempting more than 10 3-pointers per game this season. According to Stathead, three is the most we've seen for an entire season in the modern era.