Earlier this week, German newspaper Die Zeit published an article for football supporters who are planning to use the country’s Deutsche Bahn train network this summer. It was a survival guide of sorts, and it contained a chilling warning: “The Deutsche Bahn is not Deutsch at all: which is to say, it’s never on time.”

‌That old idea of German efficiency, evidently, does not apply as it once did. Such is the sorry state of the country’s railways, the Deutsche Bahn was last year described as being in a “permanent crisis” by Germany’s national audit office. As they say in a popular joke in these parts: “If you want German efficiency, go to Switzerland.”

‌In the case of public transport, then, Germany’s reputation no longer matches its reality. And now, with the European Championship just hours away, many are questioning whether the same is true of the country’s national team. To repurpose Die Zeit’s phrasing: “The Deutsche team are not Deutsch at all: which is to say, they keep collapsing at major tournaments.”

‌Germany’s reputation for turning up at the crucial moments, for delivering when the pressure is most intense, is well-established. They even have a word for it: Turniermannschaft, which translates as “tournament team”.

‌But over the past decade, the notion of Germany’s excellence at tournaments has been eroded almost as drastically as their reputation for punctual public transport. The great “tournament team” has not progressed beyond the last 16 of a major finals since 2016. In their past two World Cup campaigns, Germany were dumped out at the group stage.

‌All of which has contributed to a shifting of the national mood. This summer’s European Championship is a home tournament, but the German people are not particularly optimistic, about their trains or their team. A headline in Sport Bild this week excitedly noted that “not even Jurgen Klinsmann” expected Germany to win.

‌It was indicative of the situation that Julian Nagelsmann, the Germany manager, used his pre-match press conference to plead for the support of the home crowd during Friday’s opener against Scotland. “Belief is very important,” he said. “I hope that everyone in the stadium will be very loud. We want to have the country behind us, to push us forward. We have to use our home advantage. Please be very loud.”

‌The fact that Nagelsmann was asking for significant support was evidence that such backing is not guaranteed. By contrast, there was certainly no need for Steve Clarke, the Scotland manager, to make similar representations to his team’s tens of thousands of travelling fans.

‌Recent history has created an air of vulnerability around Germany, even ahead of a competition on their own turf. Their previous tournament showings were either calamitous (the World Cups of 2018 and 2022) or disappointing (they lost to England in the round of 16 in Euro 2020), and their results in 2023 were truly horrific.

‌Within that one calendar year, Germany lost to Belgium, Poland, Colombia, Japan, Turkey and Austria. In September last year, Hansi Flick became the first ever Germany manager to be sacked.

‌Under Nagelsmann, Germany started slowly. The 36-year-old was in charge for the losses against Turkey and Austria, and in the first of those games he deployed Arsenal forward Kai Havertz as a left-back. It is not an experiment that is likely to be repeated.

‌At the turn of the year, many Germans understandably feared for the worst. Based on their form at the Qatar World Cup and in the months that followed, Euro 2024 threatened to be a genuine humiliation.

‌Those fears have not been totally allayed but Nagelsmann has at least steadied the ship. Few expect Germany to win, but most now expect them to at least compete in the knockout stages. They are unbeaten in their past four matches, including a 2-0 win in France, and should have too much for Scotland in Munich.

‌What has changed in recent months? The return of Toni Kroos is perhaps the single most important factor. Kroos had retired from international football in 2021 but he was convinced to come back into the fold for this tournament. Announcing his comeback, he said: “I’m sure that a lot more is possible with the team than most people believe!”

‌Kroos made his return in March, against France. Within seven seconds, he had assisted a goal. It was another demonstration of the midfielder’s enduring class and, having won the Champions League with Real Madrid in his final club match, he intends to head into full retirement with another international trophy to his name.

‌Germany have the oldest squad in the tournament and, on paper at least, they boast a promising blend of experience and youthful talent. In Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, they have two of the most exciting young attackers in the world. If those two can produce their best, Germany will quickly defy the more negative pre-match expectations.

‌Nothing is guaranteed with this team, though. Not these days, anyway. If anything, Germany’s recent history suggests that, as with their trains, it will not take much to push them off-track.