What has gone wrong at Brentford? From European flirtation to relegation fears

When Thomas Frank was looking ahead to the season in August, he spoke of wanting Brentford to become better in possession and exercise greater control in matches.

After their ninth-place finish last term — when they missed out on European football by just two points — the feeling throughout the club was of a need to kick on.

But rather than establish themselves as a stable top-flight side, Brentford have regressed this campaign.

They sit 16th, just five points above the bottom three and facing up to the threat of relegation, with 12 matches to go. And with Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, Brighton and Aston Villa to come in five of their next six matches, the situation is likely to get worse.

Recruitment has been a key contributor to Brentford's stagnation. Rightly seen as one of the best-run clubs in the country in recent years, that theory has been tested as they have struggled to find value for money in the transfer market.

The signing of Keane Lewis-Potter from Hull for a then club-record £16million in 2022 was a gamble. Lively in Monday night's otherwise disappointing 4-2 defeat at West Ham, only now is the 23-year-old starting to show consistency.

Kevin Schade signed for £22m when Brentford made his loan deal permanent in June, despite him having failed to score in 19 appearances. Then, just 22 days later, a new club-record £23m was spent on Wolves centre-back Nathan Collins — an investment yet to pay dividends.

Perhaps recruitment is a significant reason why owner Matthew Benham is open to selling a majority stake in the club.

A lifelong Brentford fan, Benham knows he does not possess the financial power of most Premier League owners.

With the fourth-lowest wage bill in the Premier League, Brentford cannot afford to get expensive buys wrong. Benham can see that, if the club wants to reach the next level, fresh investment is needed.

Thomas Frank said publicly last season David Raya was for sale at £40m, and he continues to insist Ivan Toney will almost certainly be sold in the summer.

It is clearly a strategy, but does that level of openness actually give Brentford more bargaining power? There is an argument that all it does is advertise their policy of selling their best assets to balance the books.

Toney will surely leave at the end of the season, and potential buyers will fancy their chances of signing him for less than the £80-100m Brentford want.

The impact of Toney's betting ban, which meant he missed the first 19 Premier League games this season, cannot be overstated.

While he and shrewd loan signing Neal Maupay have struck up a strong partnership since his return last month, Frank's efforts to accommodate them have come at a cost.

Moving to a 3-5-2 system has helped Brentford get the best out of Toney and Maupay, but their possession style of play has been sacrificed and led to leakiness in defence.

Only Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton have shipped more goals this campaign. Brentford's bad run of injuries has also hit them hard. Bryan Mbeumo has been out for most of the season, while Schade suffered a groin injury just after hitting his first goal for the club in August.

A season-ending knee injury for Rico Henry and further injuries to Aaron Hickey and Ethan Pinnock have left the Bees without three of their best defenders, and the enigmatic Mathias Jensen has not been the same player since recovering from an adductor issue in December.

Jensen, Pinnock and captain Christian Norgaard were all pivotal last season but have been uncharacteristically inconsistent this campaign.

Potential points deductions to come for Everton and Nottingham Forest could alleviate pressure on Brentford, but they must save themselves, not hope to be saved.

Mbeumo and Pinnock's returns in just over a month will help, but the Bees must focus on the here and now. They have three wins and a draw from their past four meetings with Chelsea, who they host on Saturday. With games running out, that match presents a good chance to turn a corner.