Gwyn Jones: Next eight days are massive for Gatland - damage limitation is a dangerous game
The next eight days will be decisive in Warren Gatland’s future as Welsh coach.
He must win in Italy to have any chance of remaining in post. But Wales will only win next weekend if they can put in a positive performance against France tonight.
Wales lost the autumn series conceding an average of 40 points per game. They were easy to score against but found it hard to score themselves.
READ MORE: 'Relentless' Welsh prospect based in England aims to follow in Wales star's footsteps
READ MORE: Shaun Edwards makes his feelings clear on Wales and the job he would 'swim for'
Gatland has selected his side for Paris with Rome in mind. Elliot Dee and Taulupe Faletau may well be starting if the matches were the other way around.
I would have a 95% fit Faletau in my team because he is one of the few ‘skill players’ in the Welsh side that can unlock defences. The Welsh lineout rarely falls apart when Dee is throwing in and so he is invaluable for Wales when it comes to beating Italy.
If there is a doubt about his fitness for that match then Gatland will nurse him through this weekend just in case. Gatland has been bullish in his pre-tournament remarks as he often is.
Stade De France holds no fear for him as his record there over the years attests. But even the most patriotic Welsh supporters do not expect an upset on Friday.
France are without four world class players in Charles Ollivon, Jonathan Danty, Damian Penaud and Gael Fickou. You cannot lose these players and not be affected to some degree. Today’s South Africa and the All-Blacks of 15 years ago are the only teams that could change a third of their team and still beat anyone.
So, no matter how buoyant French rugby is at the moment, there will be a drop off in performance. The question is, are Wales good enough and strong enough to expose that hint of vulnerability?
Not to win perhaps, but they could frustrate, disrupt and infuriate the home team and the expectant crowd to make this feel like a positive outcome. That is the limit of my expectation which is a sad indictment on Wales’ current plight.
My fear is that France will see Wales as team they can bully. Physically and psychologically France will try to intimidate this Welsh side.
They will attack the scrum. Their monstrous front row looking to force penalties.
There will be no escape for Evan Lloyd in the lineout either. France are going to compete at the front and middle and may force Wales to the back.
France will be happy to put the ball off the field and look to steal it back. It will be a relentless examination of Wales’ forward pack which will come under more pressure defending the driving lineout.
Wales have been an easy touch from lineout mauls for a while. Australia scored three tries from it in Wales’ last match.
Anyone facing Wales will attack them there.
If the unit skills are looking strong France will look to dominate contact and get their offloading game going. This gives them tempo and allows them to link forwards and back seamlessly.
The only way to stop France dominating is to stand up to them physically. Wales have a robust looking back-row, Dafydd Jenkins will provide endless enthusiasm in the second row.
I thought Will Rowlands had a quiet autumn series. He needs to put in some dominant collisions and be a commanding second row.
Wales have brought Josh Adams and Liam Williams into the back three. A feisty pair that don’t have the spark they once had.
But they both find ways of getting in the game and so they can be influential. Midfield remains a headache for Gatland. Watkin and Tompkins is a safe and conservative centre partnership.
One would hope that they will be able to contain and manage the French attacks but it’s hard to get excited by these two in attack.
I like Ben Thomas as a rugby player. Good skills and plenty of vision. I’m just not convinced he’s a fly-half.
Again, I suspect this is a selection with an eye to the Italy match. The Azzurri have two big men in midfield that made a mass of Wales last season and Thomas should be decent in defence.
I would like to see Jarrod Evans in the squad. He is Wales’ most attacking fly-half.
Tomos Williams will have the impossible task of subduing Antoine Dupont. Good luck, Tomos.
The one thing going for Gatland in this match is that expectations are so low. If Wales avoid humiliation, people will shrug their shoulders and turn their attention to Italy.
Damage limitation is a dangerous game and if Wales aren’t able to threaten, create or stress France in any significant or sustained way then we get stuck in a defensive mindset.
My prediction for this match is that Wales will be scrappy and tenacious but eventually they will get overpowered and lose by 20 points.
My fear is that France get off to a flyer and force Wales to chase the game, if that happens it could get ugly very quick.
Every Wales game in the Men’s 6 Nations Championship and the U20’s 6 Nations Championship will be available to watch on S4C, S4C Clic and BBC iPlayer.
