Gwyn Jones: Wales are so far behind the rest, a scrappy win in Italy will not save Gatland
Like many people, I thought the game against Italy would be the defining match in the Six Nations for Wales. It remains our only realistic chance of a win and avoiding the ignominy of consecutive Wooden Spoons. It has even been dubbed the most important match of the last 20 years.
I felt like that at the start of the championship but as I reflect on the events in Paris, I’m not sure I see it like that anymore. Wales are languishing so far behind the other Test nations that a scrappy and hard-fought win against Italy on its own will not be enough to safeguard Warren Gatland’s future.
Don’t get me wrong, these players are in desperate need of a win. The last 16 months must have felt like purgatory, an endless series of losses with each one delivering a fresh blow to your self-belief. Anything that breaks that cycle must surely lift the mood and restore some self-respect.
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But my fear after the first round of matches is that Scotland, England and Ireland are on a different level to us and even though we might beat Italy, what would that mean if it is followed by three heavy defeats?
It is unfair to move the goalposts at this stage, but a win in Rome must be followed by sustained improvement, otherwise Gatland’s fate is sealed.
In the aftermath of the defeat against France I experienced what psychologists describe as cognitive dissonance. I was holding two contradictory thoughts at the same time. The first was the conventional belief that losing 43-0 is a loss of humiliating proportions. Simultaneously, I was thinking that Wales didn’t do that badly and it could have been a lot worse.
The only way I could reconcile these conflicting ideas was to reset what a decent Welsh performance now looks like. I now have to accept that if Wales play reasonably well they can accept to lose by 40 points. That is not a position that is sustainable.
But, I do think that Wales have an outside chance of beating Italy. I was expecting more from them in their match against Scotland. There were echoes of their previous naivety that leads to conceding soft tries. They were unable to bring their power runners into the game on a consistent basis and at other times they simply looked lost.
They will be better this weekend. This is also their best chance of a win in the championship. They will have been impressed by Wales’ scrum in Paris and that may be an area of weakness that Wales can exploit.
Italy will feel that their major advantage is their power in midfield. Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello are direct and will try to dominate Ben Thomas, Eddie James and Nick Tompkins. Michele Lamaro, the industrious No 8, was quiet and the x-factor abilities of Ange Capuozzo were non-existent.
However, this was an unusually poor performance by them. They have a lot of room for improvement and their ceiling is higher than Wales’ at the moment. This means that if Italy play well on Saturday, Wales may not be able to do much about it.
Much of the criticism this week in Wales has focused on the complete failure of the attack against France. Wales had 60% possession in the second half and could not make a blemish on the French defence, even when down to 14 men. I am still no closer to working out what we are trying to do with the ball and where our tries are going to come from.
Wales overplayed, lost shape and compounded that with errors. I will be surprised if Wales don’t kick the leather off it in Rome. They have a good kick-chase with Tom Rogers in particular regaining possession. Kicking ad nauseum will also hide the glaring deficiencies in Wales’ attacking structure, which is a blessing.
Indeed, the attack is so bad that it has allowed Mike Forshaw’s defence to slip under the radar. Wales have conceded more than 40 points in each of their last three games, yet everyone moans about the attack. Wales do not have the weapons to outscore their opponents, so the defence must do better.
So, for a rare moment in time, I agree with Gatland. I don’t think this match is the biggest in 20 years. I don’t think the result will decide his future. A lone win against Italy will not be enough. I sense the wheels of change have started moving already.
Yet I really want the boys to win this weekend. I worry about the long-term effect these losses may have on their confidence. Their effort and desire has never been in doubt.
If Wales are to prevail in Rome it will be down to their desire to turn things around. When it's tight, emotions matter. Wales are desperate, they may have forgotten how to win but they still know how to fight.
Just for some respite from the gloom and a chance to wear the red shirt with pride, I hope they can get a win against Italy.
Every Wales game in the Men’s 6 Nations Championship and the U20’s 6 Nations Championship will be available to watch on S4C, S4C Clic and BBC iPlayer.
