What Ineos Britannia need to learn ahead of the Louis Vuitton Cup semi-finals

With the semi-finals of the Louis Vuitton Cup fast approaching Telegraph Sport takes a closer look at Britain’s chances, in the form of Ineos Britannia, of making it to the America’s Cup shootout against New Zealand.

How is Ineos Britannia’s America’s Cup challenge looking?

Better than it was two weeks ago. An encouraging round-robin stage of the Louis Vuitton Cup – the challenger series to determine which of five challengers get to face New Zealand in next month’s Cup match – has seen Britain get better and better, qualifying for the semi-finals with something to spare.

Who will Britain face in the semi-finals?

That is yet to be determined. With the final day of the round robins held over until Monday due to adverse weather conditions in Barcelona on Sunday, Ben Ainslie’s team are still waiting to find out where they end up in the table.

Does it make a big difference?

Yes, because the top-placed challenger after the round robins gets their pick of semi-final opponent. At the moment, it looks as if Luna Rossa will earn that advantage. The Italians have won six and lost one of their seven races to date. But if they lose to Switzerland on Monday, and Britain beat France, the two teams will be locked on six wins apiece and there would need to be a sail-off to separate them.

Whoever finishes top, they are unlikely to announce their choice of semi-final opponent until Friday’s pre-semi-final press conference. Regatta director Iain Murray has announced he would require three things of the top-placed challenger in that conference: the name of their preferred semi-final opponent; their choice of entry side for the first race in the first-to-five series; whether they want to be involved in the first race on day one on Saturday, or the second.

Who are the top-placed team likely to pick for the semi-finals?

If Luna Rossa top the table, the likelihood is that  the Italians will plump for either Switzerland or France, depending on which of those teams have avoided elimination (France are currently bottom of the table but could yet force a sail-off with Swiss challenger Alinghi).

There is a school of thought that Luna Rossa might opt for Ineos rather than allow the British team another week to improve. The most likely outcome is that Ineos end up facing American Magic in the semis.

Where have Ineos Britannia improved?

Ainslie, the most successful Olympic sailor of all time had admitted in his Telegraph column that his team were “clearly a little way off the Kiwis, the Italians and the Americans”.

However, their upwind speed, in particular, is much improved since last month, as evidenced in coming back from two penalties to beat France, and again in coming back from a boundary penalty to go within a whisker of beating American Magic on Thursday.

But it was their dominant win over Luna Rossa on Saturday which really showcased their improvement. In slightly heavier breezes, Ainslie’s team hit a sweet spot and were dominant both upwind and downwind, controlling the race.

American Magic co-helm Tom Slingsby, looking ahead to a potential semi-final match-up with GBR, admitted their form was a concern. “They are getting better and the way they came at us [on Thursday] when we had a nice lead and were able to chip away at us, and then what they did [inflicting a first defeat on Luna Rossa], that’s really impressive,” he said. “Their rate of improvement has been a little higher than us recently.”

Where can Ineos Britannia improve?

Although their speed and fluency in manoeuvres have improved since the preliminary regatta, there is still work to do to catch Luna Rossa and defenders New Zealand on that score. They also need to cut out the basic errors. The boundary penalty in the race against American Magic was not their first. GBR were also OCS (over the line early) in their first race against France. There have been a few splashdowns and messy manoeuvres at key moments: the late gybe which potentially cost them victory in their second race against American Magic, and another near calamity in the win over Luna Rossa (although sources have since suggested they hit debris on that occasion).

That win over Luna Rossa, incidentally, led to suggestions they might prefer a slightly heavier breeze, so that would be an accusation to dispel.

Could Britain end 173 years of hurt and win the America’s Cup?

They are still an outside bet. Even if Ineos manage to beat American Magic in the Louis Vuitton semis, and Luna Rossa in the final (assuming it is not the other way around), they would still have to face the might of Emirates Team New Zealand in the Cup match. Aside from dropping their boat onto its cradle a couple of weeks ago, necessitating a mad 35-hour repair job, the Kiwis have looked super slick so far. They are almost certainly holding a bit back, too, given they did not have the stress of having to qualify.

But there are reasons to be optimistic. Ainslie has insisted that their boat Britannia, which has been designed with partners Mercedes F1, had the most potential of all the boats. Its performance is starting to suggest that might be true.

Britain’s rate of improvement has been impressive, and they insist there is more to come. The team have access to an enviable supply of power generated by their cyclor group, the four sailors who provide hydraulic power to the boat by pedalling on static bikes. In particular, they feel they may have an advantage over American Magic on this score, with the Americans opting to position their cyclors in a recumbent position, sacrificing power for aerodynamics.

And the partnership between Ainslie and his co-helm Dylan Fletcher, a late call-up for Giles Scott, can probably improve given how recently they came together.

If they keep improving at their current rate, the longest curse in sport may just be lifted.