Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction, pick: UFC 311 ends with finish – but for whom?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 311 impromptu main event between Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano.
Islam Makhachev preview
Staple info:
Record: 26-1 MMA, 15-1 UFC
Height: 5'10" Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70.5"
Last fight: Submission win over Dustin Poirier (June 1, 2024)
Camp: Eagles MMA (Dubai/Russia)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC lightweight champion
+ Combat sambo world champion
+ 4x Russian sambo champion
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ 5 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking
^ Solid variance in shot selection
+ Hard kicks from the left side
+ Good takedown ability
^ Favors chaining off singles
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Excellent trips, knees and tosses
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Wrist control, rides, passes
+/- 1-0 in career rematches
Renato Moicano
Staple info:
22-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC
Height: 5'11" Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72"
Last fight: TKO win over Benoit Saint-Denis (Sep. 28, 2024)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 2 KO victory
+ 10 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid muay Thai technique
^ Hard leg kicks
+ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Developing a wrestling game
^ Strong from bodylock positions
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+ Always looks for the back
^ 10 wins by rear-naked choke
+/- 3-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano point of interest: Striking on short notice
With Arman Tsarukyan being forced to withdraw on weigh-in day, Moicano will now be stepping in on short notice to challenge Makhachev for his lightweight title.
Not only was Moicano already on weight as someone scheduled to compete on the same card, but the Brazilian was also preparing for southpaw striker – making it a somewhat easier switch from a stylistic perspective.
When Moicano finds himself in open-stance affairs, he does a decent job of utilizing his lead hand but primarily looks to counter, which seems to be a modus operandi many orthodox fighters resort to with these sorts of stance pairings.
Despite stepping onto the UFC scene with his forte being submissions, Moicano quickly demonstrated that he was paying proper attention to all parts of his game – including his striking.
Steadily developing a muay Thai arsenal, Moicano can either stalk or stick and move, using hard kicks from both sides. Striking in combination when feeling in stride, the 35-year-old does increasingly better at punching his way in and out of the pocket.
Whether Moicano is coming forward or countering, his hook, cross and uppercut triggers appear to be deeply rooted, committing to a response each time. That said, Moicano will need to be careful when committing against a southpaw who can counter like Makhachev.
Fighting out of a southpaw stance, Makhachev has shown to be much more than a sambo practitioner since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Fellow southpaw Adriano Martins may have been able to audit Makhachev’s early aggression with a perfectly placed check hook at UFC 192, but the Dagestani fighter has been steadily making improvements to his striking since his lone setback.
Now, it is not uncommon to see Makhachev play at a much safer range when looking to set up his shots and strikes. Whether Makhachev is sniping crosses down the centerline or mixing the targets of his kicking attacks, the 33-year-old does a solid job of constantly changing his level and variating his shot selection.
Makhachev’s patented check right hook is still a key player in regards to countering presence that’s worth watching out for in this fight, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him press some of his clinch striking advantages in this matchup.
Favoring single and double collar-tie variations in the clinch, Makhachev does a good job of utilizing well-placed knees to manipulate defenses and create openings.
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Given the quiet crux of each fighter’s games, winning the wrestling will be paramount Saturday.
Since moving up to the UFC’s lightweight division, Moicano has become a much more aggressive grappler. He still shows the level-changing shots wielded at featherweight, but the American Top Team product arguably gets a bulk of his work done from the clinch.
Favoring the bodylock position, Moicano likes to combo his threats that range from shuck-bys to the back, to Polish-style, step-around takedowns that force his opponents to pick their poison. That said, failed attempts could lead him into stymying clinch scenarios with Makhachev.
Akin to his now-coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev also scores a large part of his takedowns off of chaining attacks in clinch space.
Whether Makhachev is working from his favored single-leg position or hitting slick trips and tosses from tie-ups, the product from Dagestan displays solid adaptability in the wrestling realm. Nevertheless, Makhachev is not beyond hitting his own reactive shots in the open – something that Moicano will need to be aware of Saturday.
Aside from having tremendous hip and grip awareness, Makhachev is one of my favorite fighters to point to in regard to demonstrating the importance of wrist control.
An unsung hero in regard to effective martial arts techniques, Makhachev’s quiet control of hands and wrists helps stymie his opposition’s advances while he furthers his own.
Makhachev also employs stellar legwork that goes beyond his standing clinch work, as it’s not uncommon to see the 15-year pro incorporate crab rides in conjunction with back attacks, as seen in his finish of Thiago Moises.
But for as good as Makhachev is, he will still need to respect back-attacks that this title challenger, in particular, will be looking for.
Once Moicano can establish a dominant position, he quickly demonstrates why he made MMA Junkie's Top 10 when it comes to rear-naked choke artists in MMA.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt primed to get behind his opposition, Moicano needs very little daylight to get to his preferred kill zone. And once Moicano can establish his presence from the rear, he shows incredibly slick grip deconstructions that smoothly cut through his victim’s defenses like a hot knife going through butter.
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano odds
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily siding with the sitting champion, listing Makhachev -950 and Moicano +590 via FanDuel.
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction, pick
Between Makhachev's reputation and the short-notice nature of it all, seeing a spread this wide doesn't surprise me in the slightest.
But with the betting odds approaching Ronda Rousey territory regarding the inflations of the numbers, I feel obliged to remind the masses that this is MMA – one of the most volatile sports on this planet and opponent changes are intangibles that are hard to quantify.
Moicano has been keen on this scenario being a real possibility since last December, claiming that he's ready for Makhachev and has the answers to his technique.
The potential problem, however, is that even though Moicano is technically positive at 3-1 against UFC-level lefties, the Brazilian has shown real troubles with the striking portion of those fights (see the southpaw report in the previous section).
Whether we're talking about left-sided strikes or bodywork, a lot of the issues Moicano faces against orthodox opposition are only exacerbated when striking with a southpaw. For that reason, I suspect that Makhachev's kicks and counters will have some serious play in this fight.
Moicano will likely put on a show and make things much more competitive in the early going than the odds indicate. And though I'll be cheering Moicano on to pull off this upset, the official pick will be for Makhachev to find a knockout by Round 4.
Prediction: Makhachev inside the distance
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano start time, where to watch
As the main event, Makhachev and Moicano are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:45 a.m. ET (9:45 p.m. locally in Los Angeles). The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 311.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction, pick: UFC 311 ends with finish – but for whom?
