Italy v Wales exact scoreline predicted as crunch clash to go to the wire
Wales face their biggest match in 20 years on Saturday, according to former international No 10 Dan Biggar.
It is an assessment head coach Warren Gatland disagrees with, but whatever view you subscribe to the fixture against Italy in Rome is huge for the New Zealander and his players.
Thirteen Test defeats in a row have put Wales in a position they do not want to be in, and tomorrow at the Stadio Olimpico is an opportunity to finally stop the rot. The big question is.... will they?
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Here, our writers give their score predictions and their views on how the game will pan out....
Ben James: The players desperately deserve to taste victory, but I just can't see it
Having gone from Nice to Rome this week, it shouldn't take much convincing to believe me when I say this job can be quite good sometimes.
Welsh rugby evokes something unique and when it's good, it's a glorious thing to cover closely. But when it isn't, it's a grind - an endless succession of self-interest and in-fighting that would wear even the most optimistic of folk down. The last 16 months have been miserable on the Test stage.
Maybe even the last three years, beyond the brief respite of the World Cup in France. I've been there for 21 of Warren Gatland's 25 Tests during his second stint in charge.
Before anyone accuses me of being a curse, I've been present for the six victories. But I've seen more Welsh defeats than I'd have cared to.
I desperately want to see Wales win again. There's only so many times you can look at this group of players once again being consigned to defeat. Failed by those above them, they deserve to savour victory, however brief that may be.
There are arguments to be made that defeat in Rome would ensure heads can't be buried and cans kicked down the road.
But, my word, if it was the case that the tipping point for genuine change was actually the 14th consecutive Test defeat - remember, Italy have already beaten Wales once in this string of losses - then we might as well all pack up and go home. Even for the game in this country, that would be desperate.
Unfortunately, as much as I want Wales to come out on top, Italy just edge it for me. Wales will be more balanced in their gameplan, although the talk of playing good rugby still perseveres to the point where I fear confusion over a playing style will remain.
If they kick the leather off it for territorial gain, cut the needless overplaying in their own half down and Taulupe Faletau takes some of the carrying load off the superlative Jac Morgan, they have a chance. But, after so many defeats, I'm not sure that's enough.
Italy 28-20 Wales
John Jones: Sadly, I've not seen enough to believe the hurt will end
Ahead of kick-off in Paris last week, there was hope. Not of a win, of course - let's be honest, absolutely nobody expected that. Rather, there was hope that we would see something from Wales that would provide sufficient encouragement leading into this weekend’s crucial must-win clash in Rome.
In unpicking a 43-0 thumping, however, such positives are few and far between. There were some minor plusses, with an improved performance at scrum-time and some fine individual performances from the likes of Jac Morgan and Tom Rogers, but ultimately there was very little sign that Wales are close to finally turning the corner.
Warren Gatland’s side looked completely devoid of ideas in attack at the Stade de France, while even a committed defensive performance couldn’t prevent them from shipping seven tries as the hosts filled their boots under little pressure.
A lot has been made about Saturday’s match being the one Wales should be targeting at this Six Nations, but the same can be said for the Italians. They weren’t at their best against Scotland last week, but they will bang up for this one and you would imagine them to be much improved too.
It will be a strong Italy side taking to the field in Rome and one that, in full flow, you would expect to cause Wales real problems. The powerhouse centre partnership of Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello is of particular concern with the Welsh midfield, by stark contrast, lacking any sort of punch against the French.
All eyes will be on young Eddie James to see if he can change those fortunes, but it is a big ask for the 22-year-old on his first Test start.
As all who follow Wales will agree, I desperately want to see this team win. It has talent and it has fight and I fear that such a torrid, seemingly endless run of results will have a damaging long-term effect on their confidence.
I wish I had seen enough to call a Welsh win. They have a chance, of course, but unless they turn things around totally in attack and shore up their defence, I just can’t see it. Italy by five.
Italy 23-18 Wales
Dylan James: Very tight affair but Italians to rule
If Wales are going to win at all this Six Nations, it’s going to be this game.
Warren Gatland’s side have lost two of the last three games against Italy in this competition, but that singular win did indeed occur in Rome - the location for this weekend’s clash.
Despite not losing in Italy since 2007, it’s looking more likely that the Azzurri will break that curse. This Wales team are desperately low on confidence and being nilled against France in round one will have only made things worse.
As Ben Youngs explained in the week, Wales are lacking dent, and more specifically, ball carriers who regularly gain post-contact metres. The one difference for me this week is the introduction of Eddie James - the promising young Scarlets centre who will earn his first start at 12.
James is the embodiment of the modern day rugby player. At 6ft 5in and 110kg, he can certainly help deliver that ‘dent’, and with some strong performances for Scarlets this season, Wales fans should be excited about him. Taulupe Faletau will undoubtedly have an influence on this game, too.
The Italians, despite their defeat in Edinburgh, are a different team these days. Two wins and a draw last year, they are demanding to be taken seriously, and rightly so. Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex have formed a solid midfield partnership and will cause Wales problems this weekend.
Perhaps the biggest warning sign for Wales is the fact Benetton beat La Rochelle 32-25 in the Champions Cup in recent weeks. Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle are one of the most formidable club sides in world rugby and were defeated by a team made up of mostly Italian internationals - food for thought.
I think this game will be incredibly tight. It’s Wales’ best chance of a victory, but if the game breaks up, then the likes of Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane are going to have a field day.
Italy 25-23 Wales
