The question was when, not if. From the moment the first details of a flirtation with Japan were reported during the World Cup, the announcement of Eddie Jones’s return to Tokyo seemed only a matter of time.

In the end, it came quickly: on 8 November, the former England coach denied having had any contact with Japan, before or after his departure from Australia was confirmed. By 13 December, the Japan Rugby Football Union (JRFU) were ready to announce that Jones was back for a second stint in charge of their national men’s team.

And so the circus will roll back into Tokyo, less than 12 months after setting up again in Sydney. The music is the same – promises of a bright future for a flagging national team accompanied by an insistence that this job is different, his commitment is long term.

Japan, like Australia last year, have decided that the rancour and rumours that accompany their new head coach are worth it. The coach remains an incredibly popular figure in Japan: it was Jones, of course, who legitimised the national team as a global force, the 2015 win over South Africa – which remains the greatest shock in World Cup history – laying the platform from which Jamie Joseph could build.

An understanding of the complex structures of Japanese rugby was high on the requirements list as the JRFU sought a new coach – South Africa’s Frans Ludeke, who has spent the best part of a decade with the Kubota Spears, was the favourite before Jones was (unofficially or officially) on the market. Jones, whose mother and wife are Japanese, has always felt at home in the country and embraced the cultural differences that come with each different coaching role; as a talent spotter, he still, clearly, has some intuition.

But to place your trust in a man with this reputation and recent record feels a lot like inviting an arsonist to light the winter fire. With England and Australia, the last days of Jones have looked the same, muddled on the field, muddy off it, with fallings out with players, executives and the press, fibs and fictions still escaping his mouth with uncomfortable ease. Should Australia really have been surprised that Jones’s wandering eye landed elsewhere again?

There were moments of misfortune during Australia’s World Cup campaign – losing Taniela Tupou and Will Skelton to injury in a single training session, for example – but it was a mess that Jones had himself made. There were times during the tournament that it seemed like the coach was going all George Costanza in trying to get himself sacked, publicly criticising the Australian union and engaging in his usual tomfoolery with the press. On the field, Australia’s campaign was a disaster, a young side ill-equipped for the occasion beaten by Fiji and embarrassed by Wales.

And then there were the links with Japan. Jones disputed the Sydney Morning Herald’s report that he interviewed for the Japan vacancy before the World Cup, claiming not to know what they were talking about and insisting he’d not been in touch. But he has since changed his story.

“I didn’t do an interview before the World Cup,” Jones stressed at his unveiling. “I was asked by the recruitment agency to share my experiences with them. Some people may have construed that as an interview; it certainly wasn’t an interview.

“The first interview I had with Japan was in December. That’s the only interview I’ve had.

“I gave everything I could for that short period of time and I wasn’t good enough. I had a plan to change Australian rugby and we weren’t able to do that. Rugby Australia weren’t able to support that so I decided to move on. I wish Australia all the best. I feel terrible about the results, because I wanted to go back and change Australia. But I don’t feel any guilt at all about this process.”

The Australian newspaper still claims that the Zoom call Jones attended referred explicitly to the conversation as an interview, but to engage at all was clearly a mistake, betraying the trust of a young squad with few leaders to look to. It was the sort of error of judgement that has become too common from Jones of late – both his England and Australia tenures ended with a series of curious quotes and strange selections.

Japan is hardly an easy job to step into, either. Where Australia at least had young talent to turn to, it is unclear where the raw materials required to rebuild the Brave Blossoms are coming from, with an ageing squad and an Under-20s not performing well enough, not helped by the problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which stalled much of the progress the country hoped to make in the sport after their home World Cup four years ago.

It feels strange, then, to go back to Jones when the sport needs new life. His appointment means that the direction of Japanese rugby will have been set by just he and Joseph for over a decade and a half, a duopolistic dynasty surely unwise in an ever-evolving sport.

There is a thought that Jones’s skillset is better suited to a role like this, one with which he is familiar and has done good work with before. But Japan’s place in the top tier of World Rugby’s new Nations Championship from 2026 should excite an emerging nation that has broken through, and surely made this a time to look to the future – Jones feels like yesterday’s man, his methods outdated and the game moving past him.

Or perhaps he will not make it to 2026. Who knows what now motivates Jones after the opportunity to lead Australia into a British and Irish Lions series and a home World Cup was clearly not enough of a driver. For his own sake, Jones must make a success of his new role – a once-great coach is threatening to tarnish his reputation for good.