Very soon after the outcome of the US presidential election was clear, Fifa’s president issued an old photograph of himself shaking hands with a beaming, football-clasping, Donald Trump.

“Congratulations Mr President! We will have a great Fifa World Cup and a great Fifa Club World Cup in the United States of America!” Gianni Infantino wrote on social media. It was the latest example of Infantino’s oleaginous flattery of Trump, whom in 2018 Infantino called “part of the Fifa team”. And vice versa, it seems.

In January 2020, during Trump’s first impeachment trial, Infantino introduced him at a dinner for CEOs in Davos and said Trump had the same “fibre” as world-class footballers. “He is a competitor,” Infantino said. “He says actually what many think, but more importantly, he does, then, what he says.” Trump called Infantino “my great friend”.

The US will be the centre of the sporting world during Trump’s second term as hosts of the 2025 Club World Cup, the 2026 men’s World Cup and the 2028 Olympic Games. The expanded 48-team tournament in 2026 is a joint effort with Mexico and Canada but most matches will take place in the US. “Football Unites The World!” Infantino added in his victory message to Trump.

The next American president’s power to set tone and policy may be problematic, though, given his status as a confrontational figurehead who uses sports as a tool for sowing division and scoring points against rivals, and as a politician whose nativist conservative beliefs run contrary to the progressive internationalist values espoused by many leagues and governing bodies.

The competitions are money-making operations for Fifa and the International Olympic Committee and public relations opportunities for the hosts. “Every time countries host the Olympics and the World Cup they’re trying to get their message out to the world, trying to use it as an opportunity to show off. That’s kind of what hosting these mega-events are about,” says Adrien Bouchet, director of The Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport. “His idea of what the United States is these days – it’ll be interesting to see what it entails.”

Related: Lionel Messi’s shock playoff defeat was great for drama but a problem for MLS

Trump is a leader with authoritarian instincts who swept to power with a dark and violent vision of “a nation that is dying”, calling the US “like a garbage can for the rest of the world to dump the people that they don’t want”. His political platform could spark tension between the culturally open and cosmopolitan cities that will stage events and a national government stoking insularity and intolerance.

If his anti-democracy aspirations are realised, the American showpieces are at risk of becoming the latest in a lengthening line of mega-events in illiberal countries. Since 2008, the Olympics have been held in Russia and twice in China; there have also been World Cups in Russia and Qatar, with tournaments in Morocco and Saudi Arabia on the horizon.

The 2026 World Cup is the first “to incorporate human rights in its bidding process, which requires the US government to adhere to the highest human rights standards,” says Andrea Florence, director of the Sport & Rights Alliance, a coalition of advocacy groups. “Trump’s previous disregard to international human rights obligations could have far-reaching consequences, not only jeopardising protections in the US but potentially setting a troubling precedent for future global sporting events.

“Trump’s track record of exploiting workers and weaponising trans women and girls in sport, potential plans for mass deportation of immigrants and turning military forces against citizens, and general racist, misogynistic and transphobic rhetoric are areas of particular concern – all of which can and will exacerbate human rights violations at mega sporting events.”

Like Trump, Infantino spends much of his time in Florida: Fifa’s legal and ethics divisions are newly based in Miami. Fifa promises it is “committed to respecting all internationally recognised human rights and shall strive to promote the protection of these rights.”

But rights groups have already sounded the alarm over Fifa’s handling of Saudi Arabia’s uncontested bid. “Fifa’s failure to implement its own human rights policies in relation to Saudi Arabia’s bid to host the 2034 World Cup make it all the more important that national, state and local officials in the US, Canada and Mexico move forward to implement the 2026 human rights framework,” said Minky Worden, director of global initiatives at Human Rights Watch.

With stadiums already built, the 2026 World Cup presents less risk to construction workers than Qatar 2022, Saudi Arabia or the 2030 edition that will largely be held in Morocco, Portugal and Spain. But Trump’s agenda contradicts some of the pledges outlined in Fifa’s 2026 Human Rights Framework, which says the organisation aims to make the World Cup “one of the most diverse and inclusive celebrations of all time”.

The framework highlights a commitment to support potentially at-risk groups, including women, ethnic minorities, disabled people, immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers, migrant workers, LGBTQ+ people and journalists. These are all sections of society that Trump has attacked, whether through rhetoric, policy, or both.

Many American sports bodies, including all the major leagues and the US Soccer Federation, have incorporated Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives into their corporate cultures and hiring practices in an attempt to boost support for, and representation of, minority groups.

These types of initiatives are certain to be targets for the Trump administration, and perhaps the conservative-dominated US supreme court. This year a right-wing legal group founded by Stephen Miller, an architect of Trump’s anti-immigration policies, filed a federal civil rights lawsuit against the NFL arguing that its Rooney Rule, which obliges teams to interview minority candidates for senior posts, is illegal.

The Olympics and World Cup were awarded to the US during Trump’s first term and he clearly feels a sense of ownership: as the Paris Games closed, Trump credited himself with securing the Olympics. Though Trump is a friend of Fifa, relations are considerably cooler between the president-elect and the IOC, which has not commented on his victory.

After some Christians criticised segments of the Paris Olympics opening ceremony as blasphemous, Trump labelled the show “a disgrace” and promised to prevent any sacrilegious content appearing in 2028.

Friction between Democrat-run cities and Republican state and national leaders is a feature of American politics and it is not hard to imagine a war of words breaking out between LA 2028 organisers and the White House given the $900m in federal infrastructure funds committed ahead of the Games and since California is a liberal state Trump has routinely assailed as a hellscape. In 2020, Karen Bass, now the mayor of Los Angeles, called Trump a racist who “essentially [gives] license to racists”.

Environmental goals are now routine for sporting events – LA wants to be “no car” – but it is hard to imagine a Republican administration will push organisers to keep their promises given that Trump has called climate change “a hoax” and intends to scupper clean energy projects.

Trump is also expected to roll back federal protections for gay and transgender people. He targeted two female boxing Olympic gold medallists in his election campaign, claiming they are men as a justification for his plan to revoke anti-discrimination measures issued by the Biden administration. “We will of course keep men out of women’s sports,” he said – a stance that seems sure to put him at loggerheads with the IOC and other governing bodies who set gender eligibility criteria.

Hurling sports deeper into the culture wars also brings risks for sponsors. In September the IOC lost one of its key supporters, Toyota, with the automaker’s chairman complaining that the Games are “increasingly political”.

But Trump has sought to blur the lines between sport and politics, looking for confrontations with the NFL, NBA and the US women’s soccer team over national anthem protests against civil rights abuses. Using sports as a patriotic purity test, he has termed players with opposing political stances as un-American and said the US team were eliminated from the 2023 Women’s World Cup because players were too woke and “openly hostile to America”.

He can again be expected to strain the structural tensions in American professional leagues, exploiting and widening schisms between owners, players and fans. A Guardian analysis found that nearly 95% of total political contributions to federal elections since 2020 from owners of major-league North American sports teams went to Republican causes. But many players are Democrats. Basketball’s biggest star, LeBron James, endorsed Kamala Harris, while the NBA commissioner, Adam Silver, donated to the Harris campaign.

“He uses sports to divide people because so many people pay attention to sports,” Bouchet says. “There’s always going to be social tensions as it relates to politics. Unfortunately I think the next four years are probably going to be a rocky road.”

Trump has cultivated friendships with sports personalities and spent election night in the company of the NHL legend Wayne Gretzky, Dana White, CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, and the 2024 US Open golf champion Bryson DeChambeau. As well as using sports to burnish his celebrity status and seek political advantage, the president-elect has a direct financial stake through his golf courses, three of which hosted tournaments last year on the Saudi-financed LIV Golf tour, with another stop in 2024.

Rory McIlroy expressed optimism this month that Trump can act as a peace broker between LIV and the PGA Tour. “Trump has a great relationship with Saudi Arabia. He’s got a great relationship with golf. He’s a lover of golf. So, maybe. Who knows?” McIlroy said. If Trump were to pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire in the war with Russia, Vladimir Putin may see an opening, perhaps with Trump’s help, to push for Russia’s reintegration into Fifa, Uefa and Olympic competitions.

He may be less conciliatory towards Iran, who are likely to qualify for 2026: the country was allegedly behind a plot to kill him. Stadiums should be packed in a diverse nation of more than 335 million people. But Trump has vowed to reinstate and expand his first-term “Muslim travel ban”, which affected countries including Iran and Nigeria.

Citizens of only 42 countries are allowed visa-free entry to the US and in some places it may already be too late for foreign fans to apply for a tourist visa to attend the finals. Last week the wait for an appointment in Bogota was 710 days; in Istanbul it was 692 days. Given Trump’s intention to devote resources to mass deportations and curtailing legal immigration, reducing Biden-era backlogs for visitors is unlikely to be a priority.

Even if restrictions are temporarily eased for the tournaments, upheaval at the border, combined with an abrasive and isolationist foreign policy and economic stresses from Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, may strain relations with allies, dissuade visitors and tarnish the US’s image abroad; hardly conducive to a festive atmosphere for international sports’ biggest parties.