Leicester City given slim hopes even after four wrong decisions make them the luckiest club
Leicester City are only two points from safety but have just a nine per cent chance of survival. That’s according to the Opta supercomputer, with the stats company running the numbers again after the 22nd round of matches.
While City lost for a seventh game in a row, the gap to 17th didn’t change with Ipswich and Wolves beaten too. But their hopes of staying up did take a hit. Going into the new year, Opta reckoned City had a 75 per cent chance of going down. Now it’s at 91 per cent.
They’re predicting that for the second year in a row, all three promoted teams will go down. It had only happened once in the Premier League before Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United were relegated last term, but now it might happen for two years running, with Southampton given a 99.8 per cent chance of going down, and Ipswich at 71.3 per cent.
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Wolves (30.8 per cent) and Everton (6.4 per cent) appear to be the only teams City might be able to overtake to get out of the bottom three. All the sides above the bottom five have less than 0.5 per cent of going down, Opta believe.
City the biggest beneficiaries of refereeing errors
City can’t even blame their position in the bottom three on refereeing decisions. According to the Key Match Incidents (KMI) panel, City have had the joint-highest number of refereeing mistakes go in their favour in the Premier League this season.
The KMI panel was set up three years ago by the Premier League to give feedback on big decisions in games. The five-person panel is made up of three former players or coaches, one representative from the Premier League, and one representative from referees body PGMOL.
Now, ESPN have compiled the data from the KMI panel this season and found that there have been four occasions in which they have deemed City to have benefitted from a refereeing mistake, the same number as Everton. No refereeing mistakes have gone against City.
And a few of those mistakes came in pretty important matches. The first was a foul by Jordan Ayew on Southampton striker Paul Onuachu, the City forward pulling on the shirt of the Nigerian at a corner.
The KMI panel ruled 4-1 that the referee got the decision incorrect and that a penalty should have been awarded to the Saints. The moment came when Southampton were 2-1 up, with City going on to claim victory, Ayew scoring an added-time winner.
In the draw with Ipswich, there were two incidents in a matter of seconds that were deemed incorrect. The first was Abdul Fatawu’s foul on Conor Chaplin inside the City box, the winger bundling over the Ipswich man. Strong appeals were waved away at the time.
Just after, Kalvin Phillips arrived slightly late to a 50-50 with Ricardo Pereira and received a second yellow card, which was also deemed an error. City fans may dispute that one, with Phillips’ first booking, an elbow to the back of Facundo Buonanotte’s head, arguably worthy of a straight red.
Both of those incidents came at 1-0 to Ipswich. With the Tractor Boys to 10 men, City went on to score an added-time equaliser, Ayew again the scorer.
The final decision came in Steve Cooper’s final match, at home to Chelsea. It didn’t affect the result, but the KMI panel deemed Wilfred Ndidi should have been sent off for a challenge in which he planted his studs on Cole Palmer’s Achilles. Albeit, Enzo Maresca said after the match he didn’t feel it was a red card.
FA Cup ticket prices rocket
A return to Old Trafford in the fourth round of the FA Cup will be “special” for Ruud van Nistelrooy, but don’t be surprised if that’s an opinion not shared by City supporters. The extremely high ticket prices could limit the number of travelling fans.
The cheapest adult ticket for the game, as set by Manchester United, is £51. For a match on a Friday night, and one that’s on the TV, it will put a lot of City fans off.
It’s an issue that’s been picked up by the Football Supporters’ Association, who successfully campaigned to have Premier League away tickets capped at £30. There’s no such limit on FA Cup ties, with Man United free to charge what they want.
Speaking to the FSA, Steve Moulds, co-chair of Foxes Trust said: “FA Cup games provide the opportunity for fans who are unable to get tickets for league matches to actually go and watch the team they support. These games provide one of the few opportunities for younger fans to be able to afford tickets.
“This spreads the love of the game and invites new and future generations to experience the thrill that is live football. How can pricing regular or new fans out of the game be any good for its future?”
