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Liverpool could face nightmare Champions League draw as path to final becomes clearer

Arne Slot and Liverpool could be handed a nightmare run to the Champions League final despite finishing in the top two of the league phase
-Credit:Getty Images


The Champions League knockout stages are - finally - beginning to take shape, with Liverpool only one of two teams to have booked their place in the last-16 of the competition.

Having beaten Lille on Tuesday thanks to goals from Mohamed Salah and Harvey Elliott, the Reds know now that they can't finish any lower than second in the league phase, having won all seven of their games so far. That essentially makes next week's final encounter of the opening stage against PSV Eindhoven a dead rubber, with just a point needed to secure top spot - although there might not be any more reward for doing so.

There is still a lot to be determined during the final week of the league phase - nine teams have been eliminated so far, with another three set to join them, and Manchester City among those in serious danger of falling at the first hurdle.

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Liverpool, though, can start looking ahead to the last-16, and with a top-two finish secure, we already have something of an idea of what the Reds' path to the final could look like.

How the knockout stages work

It is definitely worth going over how the knockout stages work in this new format, given how overly complicated UEFA has now made the competition.

Liverpool is now through to the last-16, with Barcelona the only other side also guaranteed of a spot - although Arsenal and Inter Milan are near enough there as well. The Reds are guaranteed to finish in the top two, which at least gives us a better idea of who they might face in knockout stages, with the ties already somewhat pre-determined.

The sides placed from 9th to 24th will enter a play-off round to join Liverpool in the last-16. As one of the top two teams, the Reds will face one of the winners of those play-off games - more specifically, it will be one of the sides finishing 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

If they reach the quarter-finals, they will come up against one of the sides finishing 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 23rd or 24th, while a place in the semi-finals would see them meet one of the sides finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 19th, 20th, 21st or 22nd. With one round of games still to go in the league phase, all of those places are still yet to be decided.

Best case scenario

If we look at the current standings, the teams currently placed 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th are Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Celtic. Not to cause offense to any fans of the Scottish champions, but it's clear which of those sides Liverpool would prefer to meet in the last-16.

The good news for Liverpool is it can't meet Manchester City in the next round, with Pep Guardiola's side only able to finish as high as 21st now after suffering a third defeat against Paris Saint-Germain.

Liverpool is already guaranteed to finish at least second in the Champions League's opening stage
Liverpool is already guaranteed to finish at least second in the Champions League's opening stage -Credit:Getty Images

If the Reds were to overcome Celtic, then based on the current standings, it's possible that Stuttgart could lie in wait in the quarter-finals. Feyenoord is also just outside the top 10 on goal difference, so a reunion with Arne Slot could be on the cards.

Moving on to the semi-finals, if things stay as they are in the league phase - which is of course highly unlikely - then one of Brest or Club Brugge, currently placed 13th and 20th respectively, could be all that stands between Liverpool and a place in the final.

Worst case scenario

If we're being completely honest, the best case scenario is very unlikely to happen. What's worrying is the worst case scenario is a definite possibility.

With so many big teams set to be involved in the play-off round as things stand, there's a good chance Liverpool could face one of the favorites to win the whole competition in the last-16. As we've already mentioned, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Juventus are all possibilities as things stand - as well the Reds did against Real in the league phase, we'd rather avoid another meeting with them so soon after.

Based on the current standings, there could be a quarter-final against one of Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, or Aston Villa to contend with. If Man City manages to finish 23rd or 24th, they could also provide the Reds their opponents in the last eight.

And if Liverpool makes it to the semi-finals, any one of Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund, Benfica or PSG could provide the opponents if things stay the same, while Barcelona could be waiting in the final. In any case, it doesn't seem as though finishing top of the league phase will provide the Reds with an easier route to the final.