Liverpool FFP position explained as FSG plan set to continue after January transfer window
Liverpool’s inactivity on Deadline Day will have caused little surprise. The Reds have always been opportunistic in January, with the addition of Cody Gakpo in 2023 and Luis Diaz a year earlier being recent examples of that.
Gakpo had interest from Manchester United and was seen as undervalued, while Diaz’s former club Porto had all-but-agreed a deal with Spurs only for Liverpool to leverage their knowledge of Porto’s need to raise cash immediately to settle looming debts. The Reds paid the Portuguese side £8m immediately to get it over the line.
Often it has been a case of only adding around the fringes if needs be, and with depth something Liverpool have right now, and the fact the team are the best in Europe in this moment, then the focus will be on what happens in the summer, and much of that will, in turn, be dictated by the success or failure when it comes to the contract negotiations with Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, all of who reach the end of their deals this summer.
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Profit and sustainability rules (PSR) has been the chief reason for many clubs being more hesitant when it comes to spending in January. The first month of the year is seldom the time to get a good deal as clubs either charge a premium for their assets as they want to be compensated handsomely for losing them at a key time, while those clubs willing to allow players to leave are doing so because of a loss of form and the fact that they are a burden on finances.
PSR is not an issue for the Reds, and that has been the case since the PSR acronym became part of the vernacular of football fans.
While finishing fifth in 2022/23 saw the Reds forced into a Europa League campaign last term, one that was to the detriment of their finances, the Reds are sitting pretty at the summit of the Premier League and in the UEFA Champions League this season having returned to the competition thanks to a third-placed finish last campaign.
The publication last month of the annual Deloitte Football Money League had the Reds falling a place to eighth, overtaken by Arsenal. But with that season being one without Champions League football, Liverpool’s position on that particular list will likely have them pushing for a top four spot on it this time next year.
Financial estimates from football finance expert Swiss Ramble had the Reds as posting a loss of £19m before tax for 2023/24. It could be around double that, but even using the example of a £40m loss, based on the forecasts it would mean that the club could afford to lose some £160m in 2024/25 and still be PSR compliant.
The aim of PSR is, essentially, to ensure financial prudence and that clubs operate within their means in a sustainable manner. Clubs are permitted to lose £105m over a rolling three-year assessment period, with allowable deductions for such things as investment into infrastructure, investment into the academy and the women’s team, and money spent on community initiatives. Losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic were also permitted.
The current 2024/25 financial year which clubs are currently operating in will be the final year of PSR, with Premier League clubs agreeing to trial a move to a squad cost ratio rule from next season, a move in line with what UEFA use in European competition. However, the PSR calculations will apply for this current financial year, taking into account the rolling three-year period from 2022/23 to 2024/25. The potential for punishment via points deductions will also remain.
Liverpool will likely surge back to profitability in 2024/25 and have no concerns of breaching the squad cost ratio that will replace PSR, being under the 70% that the Premier League want to see for clubs in European competition.
There is not too much to read into inactivity this summer, and Fenway Sports Group, the owners of Liverpool, have never been the kind of owners to spend for the sake of it. There will be targets for the summer, but whether they are to replace star players who may leave or to bolster an already world-class squad remains to be seen. There will likely be some significant transactions to come at the end of the season, determined by what happens in the coming weeks with contract talks.
But having the financial flexibility to engage in big deals isn’t something that is a concern, and Liverpool do have the ability to strong-arm in the market if they so wished, but the likelihood of it remaining a case of sticking with the strategy of not overpaying means that value for money and a return on the investment will still be among the chief concerns.
The wage bill will go up again, and that will be due to another season of Champions League qualification. Due to the heavily incentivised nature of Liverpool’s contracts, winning the Premier League and the Champions League would activate some significant bonuses that would see it spike to record levels.
Player amortisation costs on the balance sheet will likely be down a little, something that could reduce even more if someone like Darwin Nunez has his future elsewhere this summer. But those amortisation costs, which is essentially how players are accounted for in the financials through spreading the cost of the guaranteed fee over the length of the contract, are still well below some of their rivals. Manchester City’s, for example, stands at £165m for the 2023/24 financial year.
Liverpool can make moves, but the club operates within a structure that means that it doesn’t like to overcommit in certain areas given the financial risk that can come with fallow periods on the pitch and missing out on the Champions League, the kind of pain that Manchester United and Chelsea are currently facing.
It is, however, reasonable for fans to expect the club to act when the right players come along and engage in a market that continues to be inflated, even if they don’t like the price tag at times.