Title races are never just about the winners. In other circumstances, a run of three draws in six games for Liverpool might be cause for concern. Are they tightening up? Is there validity to that vague sense that the fixture list so far has been kind to them? But even if there is, it doesn’t really matter. Before the first of those draws, at Newcastle on 4 December, they were nine points clear of Arsenal in second; after Sunday’s draw at home to Manchester United, they are six points clear of Arsenal with a game in hand.

And that really has been the story of the past month, the great hectic splurge of the festive period. There has been a lot of heat and light, a lot of drama and excitement, and in the end not much has changed. Liverpool were far from their best on Sunday, could easily have suffered a surprise defeat, but in seven of the last nine match days the chasing pack of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City have managed one or fewer wins between them. That does, admittedly, leave Nottingham Forest, who will close to six points with a game in hand if they beat Wolves on Monday, and who are Liverpool’s next league opponents, but it has been a remarkable achievement for Nuno Espírito Santo’s side to get to where they are; realistically there is going to be some drop-off in the second half of the season.

City are 12 points adrift of Liverpool having played a game more, their race surely run. Back-to-back wins over Leicester and West Ham were essential to get them going again and got Erling Haaland back into goal-scoring nick, but in both games they were far more open than Pep Guardiola would expect and away games at Brentford and Ipswich may test them even before the brutal six-week run that begins against Paris Saint-Germain on 22 January and includes games against Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Forest as well as a decisive European meeting with Club Brugge.

Chelsea were the real losers of the festive period, taking just two points from four games, undone by an over-reliance on Cole Palmer, and by chasing games with a naivety that seemed to expose their lack of experience – something that Enzo Maresca had always acknowledged likely whenever pressed on whether Chelsea were title challengers.

But it’s Arsenal who will perhaps feel the greatest sense of regret. After overcoming the injury to Bukayo Saka, a sickness bug and falling behind to beat Brentford, it seemed they might be about to mount a charge. And they have faced seven of the other nine sides in the current top half away from home this season (Liverpool have played seven of them at home). But then, having outplayed Brighton on the first half, they ended up failing to beat them. The penalty decision was, it’s true, unusual but equally they got themselves into a position in which misfortune could happen and that’s been the story all season. Arsenal have now dropped points in nine league games and, in at least five of those, the damage has felt self-inflicted. Had they won on Saturday, the pressure on Liverpool would have been that fraction greater on Sunday, particularly when United took the lead. As it was, Liverpool’s draw, in a game they had been expected to win, merely maintained their lead a week closer to the finish line.

The match at Anfield was arguably the best of the season so far. This is what midwinter games are supposed to be like: persistent sleety rain, the snow piled up by the side of the pitch, steam billowing off bedraggled players, the stands somehow darker than usual because most people’s warmest coats remain black or navy, a contest that defied expectations.

United were far better than they had been in the run of four defeats with which they had come into the game, far better than anybody had thought they could be, and that should offer encouragement: when Ruben Amorim has time to work with them on the training pitch, they are capable of improvement. The extent of their celebrations after Lisandro Martínez’s opener, though, seemed an expression almost of disbelief, the rapid concession of an equaliser an indication of minds scrambled by emotion. Managing games, though, is a secondary challenge; first it is necessary to be in them, and United at least achieved that.

For Liverpool, meanwhile, there is the knowledge that they perhaps got away with one. Trent Alexander-Arnold had a game to forget and there was never the control in midfield that might have been anticipated. But without a sustained challenge from their main rivals, it may not matter. There are elements that will worry Arne Slot, but they would worry him a lot more if Liverpool were not so far clear.

This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition