After Sunday’s dismantling of Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool lead the Premier League by four points with a game in hand and there is a growing sense the title is already theirs to lose. There will be no over-confidence at Anfield however. Having been in this position so often in recent times, there are sound reasons for Arne Slot to remain cautious.

Avoid being haunted by the ghost of Christmases Past

The Premier League history book is more of a Christmas horror story for Liverpool. Since the top-flight revamp in 1992, Liverpool have led on December 25 on seven occasions, going on to become champions once. That contrasts with the general trend as in 16 of the past 32 years, the team leading the race on Christmas Day finished as champions.

Jürgen Klopp specialised in quick starts to a season, his side leading the way three times as he sat down for his Christmas dinner. Only in the 2019-20 season were they unmoved as they dashed to the title. The obstacle for him, of course, was Manchester City who are renowned for putting on the after-burners in the second half of the campaign.

Brendan Rodgers’ side looked all set for the title in 2013-14 before succumbing to City in the final few weeks, while for Rafael Benitez and Roy Evans – top of the table in Christmas 2008 and 1996 respectively – the formidable presence of Sir Alex Ferguson dashed hopes of an Anfield parade.

But Slot will not necessarily feel haunted by the shadows of what has been before. Prior to the Premier League era, Liverpool were the Christmas leaders on 14 occasions, the great sides of the 1970s and 1980s often having the title won by Easter.

Arsenal and Chelsea will pounce on any slip-up

One can imagine a situation in March where Chelsea remain within touching distance of the leaders and Enzo Maresca is still telling a disbelieving world his team cannot win the title. The playing down of expectations feels strategic to ease pressure and no-one at Anfield or the Emirates believes Chelsea’s players are playing solely to finish in the top four. Whether they welcome it or not, Chelsea are recognised as contenders, especially as they will benefit as their rivals deal with Champions League commitments.

The current four-point gap can swiftly disappear. Liverpool’s game in hand is the derby at Goodison, which they lost last season. Arsenal are yet to click, but it was not so dissimilar a year ago. From January 1, Mikel Arteta’s side won 16 of their remaining 18 league games, losing the title by two points. Arsenal are six points worse off at this stage this season, but they are not going head-to-head with Manchester City this time. If they embark on a similar run, the title race will go to the wire again.

City’s inevitable response will be a factor too. Their famed commercial department is no doubt working overtime to secure the millions to fund a January transfer spree. If City maintain their habit of winning every league match from February onwards, they will revive themselves.

Liverpool have suffered before due to their daunting schedule

Liverpool’s approach to domestic cup competitions puts one in mind of Al Pacino in the Godfather Part III. No matter how much they want to be out, they ‘keep getting dragged back in’. In 2022 and 2024, Liverpool took a quadruple attempt into March. Two years ago they were two games away from winning the lot, but missed out on the two trophies they really wanted – the Premier League and Champions League. Last season, the schedule eventually took its toll. Klopp’s side looked tanked by April, with their demise traced to a harrowing FA Cup quarter-final defeat to Manchester United. Injuries to Alisson, Diogo Jota and Trent Alexander-Arnold proved critical, while Mohamed Salah was carrying a hamstring problem during the final weeks.

Injuries to defenders would leave Liverpool especially short, which is why a versatile recruit at the back this January would be welcome. There are tough decisions ahead for Slot as it is difficult to compromise on team selections in a League Cup semi-final or if a Wembley final beckons. He must calculate if the rigours of so many consequential matches at home and in Europe will affect his side by April and May, particularly as Liverpool are likely to enter the knockout phase of the Champions League as strong favourites, too.

Silencing ‘the noise’ around star players’ futures

There will come a day when Slot conducts a press conference without being asked about the contract situations of Virgil van Dijk, Salah and Alexander-Arnold, but it does not look like it will be any time soon. Since the start of the season, the impasse has been presented as a potential distraction. As yet there has been no effect on the team’s performances. In fact, the trio are playing as well as ever, with Salah’s numbers extraordinary and Van Dijk once more a player-of-the-year contender.

That said, it would be naive to believe the serenity will last if there is no resolution before the title run-in. As the pressure to get over the line intensifies, there is a risk any mistakes in critical fixtures will be magnified and every comment off the pitch will be weaponised to either attack the club for failing to strike a deal, or the players for putting their salary expectations before the greater good of a title and Champions League attempt. Such observations may not be entirely fair or accurate, but ongoing commentary from the informed and ill-informed is unavoidable and is ‘noise’ Liverpool could do without. It is not proving a hindrance so far, but it is certainly not a help.

How will Slot handle a title run-in?

Liverpool’s coach has not just answered every question put to him since replacing Klopp, he has delivered impressive responses worthy of a PhD graduate. There is no reason to assume the Dutch coach will change his demeanour or approach when the pressure cranks up. He has also been in this situation before as a title winner with Feyenoord.

Nevertheless, leading a club of Liverpool’s stature in the final weeks of a title race when excitement reaches fever pitch and hysteria kicks in as the finishing line comes into view will be a different experience. Klopp never had the chance to win the league in front of a full Anfield. Barring a series of unfortunate events – mainly injuries – Liverpool are sure to be in contention for the rest of this season. How the players and their coach handle the expectation of being title favourites will help determine if the Christmas No 1 is still top in May.