Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis was keenly watching Arsenal’s win over Tottenham Hotspur in the north London derby on Wednesday night, which would normally have raised transfer intrigue. There’s a more elementary explanation now, though, that has enlivened the season so far. Marinakis was watching what is currently a title rival. Forest can still call themselves that after a 1-1 draw with Liverpool that served to bring everything that bit closer. The midweek results had the feel of setting things up for the rest of the season.

Liverpool’s draw represented the first time since going top that their points-per-game dropped under 2.4, which also means it’s the first time since then that their projected return for the season is fewer than 90. That isn’t something that’s happened too much for English champions in the last decade.

Since Leicester City miraculously won the league with a mere 81 points in 2015-16, there have only been two years when the title was claimed with fewer than 90 points. One was the full Covid season of 2020-21, when Manchester City won with 86 points, and then 2022-23, which still brought 89.

The wonder is whether a number of factors might be coming together for a similarly distorted campaign to 2015-16 and 2020-21. It might not be “a Leicester” but it could be something of a throwback, where there is a much greater margin for error. That may bring some genuine twists and turns, in a way that has been missing from title races since the early Noughties.

It should be stressed that none of this is to dismiss Liverpool or their supreme level. They dominated Forest, and it was often blind chance they didn’t score again. Such draws can nevertheless have the effect of sapping momentum, especially with Liverpool enduring their first real blip of the season. The noise around the unsigned contracts is increasing. It’s why a trip to Brentford comes at an awkward time.

Although Liverpool are rightly considerable favourites, it’s hard to think they will sustain the form of the first 18 games. Everyone except Everton now has the experience of playing them. The intense fixture list presents a wider complication.

Of course, Liverpool may not even need to sustain that level.

Brentford displayed the difficulty of visiting their stadium with that brilliant 2-2 comeback against City, which prevented Pep Guardiola’s side from making it three wins in a row. The champions don’t yet seem to have the capacity to go on one of those runs. There’s still fallibility to them, which also means there’s a greater allowance for rivals.

The pace-setters of eight years aren’t there. Jurgen Klopp, for all of Arne Slot’s many qualities, isn’t there. There are clearly a few different factors at City, but one is injuries from a lack of depth amid such a glut of fixtures. It’s one reason the champions are now looking to bring in as many as five players this month.

The fixture list may yet end up being the entire season’s most decisive factor, and we might not have yet seen the full effects. Two European weeks in January is already disruptive, but the need to then force in other fixtures has meant even more games on top of there being no chance for a new year break. Squads are doubly affected, and that following five years of congestion from the Covid break and football’s general expansion.

With even the wealthiest clubs having sought to ensure that most of their wage bill goes on the 14 or so players that are most regularly on the pitch, they haven’t yet adapted to new demands.

This is why so many squads are suffering physical injuries this season. As one senior figure inside a club said, “everyone has injuries”. This, a little like 2015-16, has been complemented by how so many Premier League clubs can pay for higher quality. PSR might have made them petrified of spending this January but it hasn’t dented huge wages, at least not when Erling Haaland is signing an astonishing new extension.

From all that, it does not feel a coincidence that half of the top four, Forest and Newcastle United, have no European football. That’s also the case for half of the top 10, with a sixth – Chelsea – having the luxury of using a different team for the Conference League. They did admittedly fall away at the exact moment everyone was wondering why they weren’t considered genuine challengers.

Arsenal, the only other side to have properly kept pace with Guardiola’s champions, have so far consistently suffered from these calendar-related issues. Hence a current projection of 78 points, way off last season’s 89. Mikel Arteta’s belief that they can still win the title has never wavered, though, and there are now greater grounds for this. One is, ironically, the reason for such doubt this week, which was the FA Cup elimination. That now gives Arsenal two free weekends at least, a benefit which may be bolstered by finishing in the Champions League top eight. With Ben White and Ethan Nwaneri soon to return, and Bukayo Saka likely fresh for the run-in, Arsenal might be in good shape if they can get through this period, maybe buy a striker, and keep in touch.

That’s a big if, though, especially ahead of a home game that has proven as difficult as Unai Emery’s Aston Villa. It is why this weekend suddenly has a sense of real excitement building, of every result potentially having a bearing on the next game.

The league’s most in-form team Newcastle first host Bournemouth at 12.30pm on Saturday, in a match they should win but could present a real challenge. That is immediately followed by Liverpool’s visit to Brentford at 3pm, with Arsenal then knowing what the state of play will be against Villa at 5.30pm. All of that will frame the next game, Forest vs Southampton at 2pm on Sunday. Everyone, naturally, will keep an eye on City’s trip to Ipswich Town (4.30pm).

It’s early in the year but this is what a title race should feel like, in terms of competitiveness and compelling variety. One of the great failures of football’s regulators, right up to Fifa and Uefa, has been not making all leagues feel so open.

That’s why it’s also a big if for the Premier League as a whole, especially after almost a decade of City domination and ahead of the conclusion of the club’s hearing. The competition could do with being able to showcase its original USP of extreme competitiveness.

One of the issues with the last two decades has been how consistently the wealthiest clubs have won. Any dropped points in the run-in, even draws, have felt almost terminal to title challenges. That theoretically sounds like significant jeopardy, but the reality is an abundance of victories. It points to the highest quality, as was most visible in 2018-19, but isn’t true drama. Drama comes from the unexpected, and twists that force responses.

That’s how titles used to be won. Even Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United (to whom all title history talk eventually turns) could lose to Sunderland and Derby County in the last 10 games. In 1994-95, Blackburn Rovers won the league despite Chris Sutton admitting they “fell over the line”.

Financial disparity over three decades has eroded this drama. A few different factors, not all positive, have brought it back and brought the table close together. This weekend might tell how lasting that is.