Mackenzie Dern expecting Zhang Weili win at UFC 312 but hoping Tatiana Suarez pulls off the upset
Mackenzie Dern is back on a winning streak.
UFC Vegas 101 kicked off the MMA calendar Saturday, headlined by Dern's rematch against Amanda Ribas. Dern, the No. 6-ranked strawweight contender, scored redemption in the matchup, becoming the first fighter to submit Ribas when she hit a third-round armbar.
UFC 312 hosts the division's next title tilt on Feb. 8 when champion Zhang Weili defends against Tatiana Suarez. Dern is excited for the bout to boot the division back into gear, but has an ideal outcome in mind.
"I'm a fan of Zhang Weili," Dern said Tuesday on "The Ariel Helwani Show." "I think just [in] every fight, she's evolving. She took down Amanda Lemos. She took down Yan Xiaonan a lot. So, as a grappler, I like seeing when a striker is evolving and having good ground game too. And then, obviously, for me, [Zhang had] one of the best fights in history with Joanna [Jedrzejczyk at UFC 248]. So I'm a fan, and I think Zhang Weili is more well-rounded.
"But as a fighter who maybe could potentially fight one of them, I'm hoping Tatiana wins just to kind of throw the division around a little bit — have some different movement in the division. And as a grappler, I would like to fight Tatiana and just kind of see how our fight would play out. I've always wanted to fight Carla Esparza, but then she had her daughter or her son. And so now we have Tatiana, too.
"Matchup-wise, I'm hoping Tatiana, but I think that Zhang Weili will win."
Despite having yet to challenge for a UFC title in her 20-fight career, Dern has been a perennial contender within the strawweight top 10.
Dern, 31, joined the promotion in 2018 as a blue-chip prospect with plenty of fanfare, holding a 5-0 record and an undeniable Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. Ultimately, her first loss came at the hands of Ribas after she returned four months postpartum in late 2019. The unanimous decision defeat was a setback that only further motivated Dern; she went on a four-fight win streak afterward.
At this stage in her career, Dern believes things are coming together more and more with each fight, and she showcased that in her revenge performance against Ribas.
"I think my wrestling has been getting better and the striking too," Dern said. "But yeah, just to have that performance, Amanda, she's good — no one's ever submitted her before, and I know she's been training hard too. She just had five rounds with Rose [Namajunas], so it was a good, happy performance."
Dern's victory over Ribas gave her back-to-back wins for the first time since her four-fight stretch from 2020-21 that followed their first encounter.
Back in 2019, Ribas essentially stole Dern's hype, going on her own run after her upset win before eventually suffering multiple losses and bouncing between 115 pounds and 125 pounds. Dern believes Ribas has gotten better since that first fight, but more than anything, timing and momentum played a big factor into why Dern vs. Ribas 2 played out so much differently than in it did five years ago.
"I don't think too much," Dern responded when asked if she believes Ribas has improved.
"I think when I fought her in the beginning, she was at a really good moment of her career. She was racking up wins back-to-back. Not that she's not confident now or anything like that, but I think just ... stylistic-wise, game-wise, [she's not] adding new things to her game, in my opinion.
"I think they're trying to train a lot instead of adding more different things to the game."
A two-fight win streak is a good place for Dern to start as 2025 picks up, though she'll likely need at least one more victory before she can stake her claim to challenge whoever the champion is after UFC 312.
One of Dern's past opponents, Virna Jandiroba, currently sits ahead of her in the pecking order at No. 3, so a rematch between the two could be on tap, or even a third Ribas bout now that they're 1-1.
Dern is open to anyone as her next obstacle, whether it's a familiar face or someone new.
"If they would like to see a [Ribas] trilogy, I think that'd be fun," Dern said. "I think we both have a lot of a big following, and we kind of have a little bit similar personalities, just kind of like all girly and all friendly with everyone.
"That'd be a cool match. All the top five girls, basically, I've fought before, so I'm probably going to have more trilogies or rematches soon."