What Man City need to avoid extra Champions League qualifying games
Manchester City head to Turin amid increasing uncertainty over their Champions League future.
The Blues have made the knockout rounds for the last 11 years running and a 12th is still expected. However, a revamp to the format of the first part of the competition and some disappointing results means that Pep Guardiola and his players have less wriggle room than they would like.
With just three games to go, there is little margin for error against Juventus after picking up just eight points from their opening five games. Here is the state of play for City's hopes as they travel to the Italian capital.
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Top eight finish
From here on out, City need to aim for perfection if they want to achieve what they want and earn the top-eight spot that moves them straight into the last-16 of the Champions League without the need for a play-off. Data kings Opta simulated the group stage 50,000 times, and 16 points was enough to make the top eight 98 per cent of the time but that dropped to 73 per cent for 15 points and 28 per cent for 14.
With eight points and three games left, City can be confident that beating Juventus and PSG away and then Club Brugge at home will see them into that automatic qualification place. However, a draw in Turin leaves them needing to win their final two matches to have a three-in-four chance of that, and if they lose on Wednesday even two wins will give them less than a three-in-ten shot.
City may be only three points off the top eight as things stand, but there are another eight teams that are closer to those spots and the Blues don't play any of them. That means they cannot make ground on them, although they are playing three teams who are below them - Juventus are 19th, PSG 25th and Brugge 22nd.
Top 24 finish
The reassuring part for City is that there is very little to do do qualify as part of the top 24. Two points from their final three fixtures will give them a 99 per cent chance of doing that, so even if they struggle away to Juventus and PSG a home game against Club Brugge to finish on should be the comfort they need to stay in the hunt for a second Champions League in three years.
Where you finish in the table matters though, with teams nine to 16 seeded against the bottom eight sides with the second leg of the play-off at home. Should they make it through that, they would then be unseeded in the draw for the last-16.
Win against Juventus and City can start thinking more about the top eight again though.
