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Man City Champions League qualification permutations ahead of PSG as fixture quirk offers escape route

Pep Guardiola, manager of Manchester City,  during the Emirates FA Cup Third Round match between City and Salford City
-Credit:Reach Publishing Services Limited


Manchester City renew their Champions League campaign this week with a trip to PSG.

It's a meeting of two teams used to reaching the latter stages of the competition but this week both are scrapping for survival at Europe's top table.

City are 22nd in the standings with PSG 25th. The top eight is all but out of reach for both but the pair will have eyes on securing a top 24 spot which would bring a two-legged play-off to reach the last 16.

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City can still reach the top eight with two wins but it would require such a remarkable number of results going in their favour that it can essentially be discounted. Indeed if City fail to win in Paris then they definitely cannot make the top eight.

If they beat PSG they will be assured of a spot in the top 24 if Stuttgart lose to Slovan Bratislava. Even defeat in France but a win over Brugge will be enough to reach the top 24 unless Stuttgart overturn a goal difference deficit of seven, because the German club and PSG meet on the final matchday so both teams can only reach a maximum of 11 points.

So for City to miss out on 11 points they would need to lose heavily in Paris and win narrowly against Brugge, while Stuttgart would have to thrash Bratislava to go into their final day game with PSG with at least a goal difference advantage of two or more over City. Stuttgart and PSG would then need to draw because a victor in that match would mean City would leapfrog whoever lost by beating Brugge.