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Man City get clear Liverpool incentive as play-off draw boost emerges despite Champions League fear

Manchester City must win their final Champions League group phase match
-Credit:Reach Publishing Services Limited


Manchester City's Champions League fate remains in their own hands heading into a final matchday full of jeopardy.

Anything less than a win over Club Brugge at the Etihad on Wednesday will see Pep Guardiola's side crash out of Europe at the first hurdle. The Blues have won just two of their seven league phase matches so far but despite their continental struggles, victory over the Belgian outfit will ensure a play-off place.

The top eight and a direct passage into the last 16 is out of reach for City, while they cannot finish any higher than 19th, meaning they will be unseeded for the play-off round should they progress and therefore play the second leg away from home.

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But there is a chink of light for the Blues. If they beat Brugge they will climb above their opponents while also finishing ahead of at least one of PSG and Stuttgart who begin the final round of fixtures two points above City but face each other next week. If that game ends in a draw the Blues will finish above both in the standings.

City will also overhaul Sporting Lisbon and Benfica with a win if the Portuguese pair fail to beat Bologna at home and Juventus away respectively. And should PSV lose at home to Liverpool then Guardiola's men will leapfrog the Dutch side with three points at the Etihad.

What all that means is that City cannot finish 24th and if they avoid finishing 23rd, which is a strong possibility, then they will avoid meeting the two strongest sides in the play-offs.

The play-offs see the sides who finish 9th and 10th play those who finish 23rd and 24th - with a draw to determine the pairings - and so on, meaning the higher up the standings City can climb, the easier the opponent in theory.

And there is an added incentive for avoiding those final two play-off qualification places. UEFA has already loosely determined the draw for the remainder of the knockout stages, meaning should City qualify then they can map out a path to the final.

Finishing above 23rd would mean the Blues would avoid the top two teams - one of which will definitely be Liverpool - while the other is currently Barcelona, until at least the quarter finals.

The congested nature of the league phase table means predicting play-off opponents is a lottery but European heavyweights Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Juventus are potential opposition.

City could also face Premier League rivals Aston Villa, with no restrictions over teams from the same nation playing each other, while a Battle of Britain tie against Celtic is also a possibility.