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Man City route to Champions League knockouts as every permutation explained after PSG heartbreak

Pep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City, reacts during the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase MD7 match between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at Parc des Princes on January 22, 2025
-Credit:Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images


Manchester City are in danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages. Before locking horns with Paris Saint-Germain, Pep Guardiola's side were three games without a win in the European top-flight and sat 24th in the table, with only goal difference stopping them from falling into the elimination zone.

Now, after surrendering a two-goal lead to the French giants, they've dropped to 25th. Jack Grealish fired City ahead shortly after half-time before Erling Haaland doubled the Premier League champions' advantage.

A few minutes later, the flood gates opened at the Parc des Princes, with Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola pulling PSG level. Then, with no more than a quarter of hour left to play, Joao Neves headed the Parisians in front after he was left unmarked at the back post.

READ MORE: Pep Guardiola explains subs at PSG as Man City pick up new injury worry

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In the dying embers, Goncalo Ramos rubbed salt into City's wounds to make it 4-2. So, with one game left to rescue their hopes of becoming European champions, the Manchester Evening News has rounded up everything you need to know about the Champions League and how City can still qualify forthe next round.

How to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages?

There are three different ways to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages. Teams who finish inside the top eight automatically qualify for the round of 16; Liverpool and Barcelona were the only sides who managed to do so before matchday six.

Those who finish from ninth to 16th are seeded into a playoff (playing at home in the second leg), and they'll be drawn against those who finish from 17th to 24th. The winners from each tie after two legs will secure a place in the round of 16.

Teams who finish in the bottom 12 – from 25th to 36th – will be eliminated from the competition, with no access to the Europa League. A defeat to PSG has significantly dented City's chances of qualification.

What do Man City need to progress in the Champions League?

City are five points off 8th and there are 16 teams in play-off places above them. Chances of automatically qualifying for the last 16 are now impossible, as are the chances of landing a seeded playoff spot.

But, they can still salvage an unseeded playoff spot. PSG have now leapfrogged them in the table, meaning City must defeat Club Brugge at Etihad Stadium in their final match.

Enrique's side face Stuttgart in their last game. According to Opta, as quoted by the BBC, City had an 84% chance of reaching the play-offs prior to their defeat in the French capital.

What's the incentive of finishing in the Champions League top eight?

Teams who finish in the top eight of the Champions League table are fast-tracked to the round of 16 and will play at home in the second leg. So, if City secure qualification to the playoffs and make it to the round of 16 they will play at home in the first leg and away in the second.

How much prize money could City miss out on?

Every team in the Champions League table gets €18.6m (£15.7m) for simply participating, with performances bonuses of €2.1m (£1.8m) per win and €700k (£592k) per draw. Each position in the league in worth €275k (£233k) and team who finish first to 8th also earn a €2m (£1.7m) bonus.

Teams who finish 9th to 16th get a €1m (£850k) bonus. The remaining prize money can be seen in the table below. UEFA have also introduced a 'value pillar' that distributes the broadcast revenue to team depending on finishing position in the league phase.

Knockout round play-offs

£840,000

Last-16

£9.3m

Quarter-finals

£10.6m

Semi-finals

£12.7m

Runner-up

£15.6m

Winner

£21.1m

If City fail to progress they would also, of course, miss out on lots of matchday revenue. Long story short, it would be very costly...

What has Guardiola said about City's chances?

When quizzed on City's slim chances of qualification to the Champions League knockout stages, Guardiola said: "Of course it is a really important game for us and for PSG, but we still have another game against Bruges at home.

"I don't know how many points we will need. Six points will be mathematically [sure], but maybe four, maybe three. But if we don't qualify we have to accept we were not good enough."

What has Enrique said about PSG's chances?

PSG have suffered defeats to Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid in the Champions League this term. When quizzed on the Parisians' chances, Luis Enrique said: "The reality is we should have won the games against PSV and Atletico. With those [extra] five points we would already be qualifying for the next round.

"But I am very optimistic and confident. Is it a must-win game? The obligation is all the players give 100%, and I take the same attitude every day. You can lose games, and that's life. The most important thing is to be committed."