Manchester City and the Expected Pain meter against Madrid
PAIN & (MADRID’S) GAIN
It may have been a happy accident for Uefa, but opening the Bigger Cup playoffs with a game between the last two European champions was a boost for the new format and a treat for armchair fans everywhere. Fears that Manchester City and Real Madrid might keep things tight were forgotten once we got a look at the clown car parked in front of Ederson’s goal in the first 20 minutes. After Madrid had tried and failed to walk the ball into the net multiple times, City then took an unexpected lead through Jack Grealish’s cross, Erling Haaland’s forward run and clinical finish – all given a Guardiolan twist by left-back Josko Gvardiol popping up mid-move to chest the ball into Haaland’s path. The hosts held their lead until the half-time break, frustrating Carlo Ancelotti and intriguing Amazon Prime viewers in the UK who had pressed the wrong button while trying to watch Clarkson’s Farm.
At which point we’d like to introduce our new analytical software tool, the Expected Pain (xP) meter. Considering City could have been a few goals down instead of one goal up, the hosts were far outperforming their xP in the first half. That said, once you threw in a patched-up, existentially wounded home defence, City’s litany of prior mishaps in Big Cup and the fact they were playing Real Madrid, the Daily’s xP-meter began to spin and shake violently, making weird, pitiful bleeping noises before toppling on to its side. Kylian Mbappé soon served up an equaliser straight from Sky’s summertime Masters football era, completely mishitting his volley but somehow shinning the ball into the net. Flukey or not, it was the inevitable result of handing Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo almost unlimited chances, while home fans held up a banner reminding the visitors that City’s best player was watching from the sidelines.
The next key variable to feed into the xP-meter: hope. It arrived for Pep Guardiola 10 minutes from time when Phil Foden’s whirring legs proved too tricky for Dani Ceballos, who conceded a penalty. Haaland dispatched it and suddenly City were in danger of emerging from this bruising tussle with a first-leg lead. Hope had arrived at the Etihad; more specifically, the type that kills you. How would a beleaguered City defence – unable to hold a lead against PSG, Manchester United, Feyenoord, Brentford and co – cope against the world’s most ruthless sporting outfit? Not well. First, Ederson padded the ball out to substitute Brahim Díaz, who offered an unnecessary non-celebration against the club he left in 2019, after five senior appearances.
Despite losing the lead twice, the hosts were eager to shake hands on the result – but this is Big(ger) Cup and Real Madrid, who have inflicted body blows on far tougher City sides than this. There was a grim inevitability to Real’s third goal, from Mateo Kovacic’s wonky pass to the exceptional Vinícius nicking the ball from Rico Lewis, to lifting the ball into the path of Madrid’s master of late goals, Jude Bellingham. It gives Real Madrid a one-goal advantage heading back to the Bernabéu, which is a bit like saying Churchill took his chances in the second world war. This was another uppercut to City’s self belief, and another armour plate bolted on to Madrid’s psyche. The positives for Guardiola? The tie is still alive, despite xG suggesting Madrid should have won by more. On the other hand, though, City’s Expected Pain in Bigger Cup remains the same.
LIVE ON BIG WEBSITE
Join Niall McVeigh from 7.30pm GMT for hot Premier League MBM coverage of Everton 0-0 Liverpool, while Will Unwin will be on deck at 8pm for Bigger Cup updates from Celtic 1-3 Bayern Munich.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This is a dark day for parks. It’s beyond us why Enfield council is prepared to give away a beautiful public park to a wealthy private company for peanuts. They are supposed to be the custodians of public rights over the park. It has served the residents of Enfield for over 90 years. Now it’s gone for ever” – Alice Roberts, of the countryside charity CPRE London, condemns the decision to approve controversial plans for Tottenham Women’s academy to be built on public green space and a rewilded golf course in north London.
FOOTBALL DAILY LETTERS
I read yesterday’s Football Daily about Marcelinho managing two clubs, fully expecting a reference to how Fabian Hürzeler, Lewis Young and Alan Julian have been doing this at the same time in England this season, only to be disappointed. I suppose my question is: has Football Daily changed or have I?” – Ed Taylor.
What a delight it was to see Plymouth Argyle knock Liverpool out of the FA Cup. Five years ago I was at the Meadow to see Shrewsbury draw 2-2 with Liverpool, only to find that the Shrews would not benefit from live TV broadcasting income: Jürgen Klopp announced immediately after the match that his first-team squad were off for their winter break, and that youngsters would contest the replay, so no one was interested in broadcasting the match. Liverpool won the replay 1-0 through a freak own goal after Shrewsbury had had a goal chalked off by a dubious VAR decision. Shrewsbury complained to the FA that Liverpool had breached the rules of the competition by not fielding their strongest side, but of course the FA did nothing. And so here we are. Words like ‘hubris’, ‘comeuppance’, and ‘karma’ come to mind. What a pity Klopp wasn’t there to witness it” – James Wilkinson.
To add to the recent correspondence regarding length of allegiance to a club (Football Daily letters passim). My father was a devoted Spurs fan, and he and my mother reached an agreement that he wasn’t to take my three brothers and I to White Hart Lane until after our respective fifth birthdays. As I am now 83 this means I have suffered the absolute highs and some gut-wrenching lows familiar to most supporters for 78 years. I am exceeded by only remaining brother who clocks up 86. I am in the middle of one of the lows at present, as you can imagine, but my blood still runs navy blue and white or whatever colour Mr Levy decides will boost shirt sales. Speaking of Levy and the current woes, it seems to me that he has employed as many managers as my years of allegiance, oh for the glorious days of Arthur Rowe and the immortal Bill Nicholson” – Stewart McGuinness.
Alexandra Topping (Monday’s Still Want More, full email edition) reminded me of my own memory of Goodison Park. In about 1976, I was a member of the Salford and Eccles Referees’ Society, which organised an after-work bus trip (booze-up) to Goodison. After enjoying the pleasures of the social club bar we were invited to the pitch. They didn’t turn on the floodlights but through the gloom I could make out a colleague standing on the centre spot. Then came the unmistakable sound of him getting rid of a few pints. He later refereed at the top level. I often wondered if he marked his territory on all the grounds where he officiated” – David Glanz.
Send letters to the.boss@theguardian.com. Today’s winner of our letter o’ the day is … David Glanz, who gets a copy of David Squires’s brilliant new book: Chaos in the Box. We have more copies to give away this week but if you’re not lucky enough to win one you can order your own in the Guardian Bookshop. There are loads of other great tomes waiting to be added to your basket, too, so get shopping! Terms and conditions for our competitions can be viewed here.
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