Manchester City rebuild is coming – this is what they are planning

One of the skills of succession planning is timing, knowing when to replace or phase out players and when to wait. For years, Manchester City have been masters of the art, often mapping out windows 18 months in advance with great precision. It is one of the reasons they have been able to move on seamlessly from the departures of key players such as Yaya Touré, Vincent Kompany, David Silva, Sergio Agüero and Fernandinho.

If a bruising past six weeks has done anything, though, it is to underline the mistakes of delaying the rebuild of an ageing squad that has won everything and, having been squeezed mentally and physically for so long, always seemed at risk of reaching a point where motivation levels dropped and minds and legs tired.

There were some plausible arguments for the delay, including the knowledge that long-standing sporting director Txiki Begiristain would be handing over the reins to Sporting’s Hugo Viana next year.

Equally, Pep Guardiola had been so impressed by the way the squad dug deep to win a fourth consecutive Premier League title last season given what their extraordinary Treble exploits had taken out of them over the previous 12 months that the manager felt an added loyalty to those players and thought they could go again.

Maybe without the absence of key figures such as Rodri and Phil Foden they would have made a better fist of things this season. But, even with injuries, Guardiola could not have envisaged a scenario in which his side would be heading into Sunday’s Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium on the back of seven defeats and a solitary victory in 10 games and the worst crisis of his City career.

Flailing in the title race and already out of the League Cup, Wednesday’s 2-0 away defeat by Juventus has also left City at risk of missing out on qualification for the Champions League knockout stages for the first time in 12 years. The last thing they need now is Manchester United, wrestling with familiar problems of their own, rubbing salt into the wounds.

Failure to do more business last summer coupled with a number of recent if rare transfer missteps that have exacerbated the current injury problems mean a rebuilding process that should have begun sooner not only needs accelerating but has mushroomed in size.

City last signed a player of significance in January almost seven years ago when they paid Athletic Bilbao £57 million for Aymeric Laporte in 2018.

But there is a firm acceptance they need to buy next month and, depending on who leaves, there could be between four and six signings over the next two windows with the defence, midfield and attack all requiring surgery.

At the same time, City must reduce the age profile of a team that has become the oldest in the Premier League this term after Everton, West Ham United and Fulham.

Nine of the current squad are aged 30 or over, including Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan who are out of contract in the summer, when Kyle Walker, Ederson, John Stones and Bernardo Silva will all enter the final 12 months of their deals.

Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji and Jack Grealish will be in the same position next year. Of the 10 players who have played the most across Europe since 2018, making the most back-to-back appearances and featuring in the most match-day squads, six are current members of Guardiola’s squad. These players have a lot of miles on the clock, and it is starting to show.

Distressed midfield a cause for grave concern

Midfield is the biggest area of concern with Rodri’s knee injury exposing the issues in the No 6 position. Atalanta’s Ederson has been strongly discussed but, with the Italian club top of Serie A and going well in the Champions League, there is thought to be little expectation of them being open to selling next month. Similarly, Real Sociedad’s Martín Zubimendi, who backed out of a move to Liverpool in the summer, is said to have reservations about the prospect of playing the role of understudy to Rodri once he returns and could wait until the summer to determine his future.

Crystal Palace’s Adam Wharton has also been cited and City continue to be linked with Bruno Guimaraes although Newcastle have yet to have had any contact from the champions over the Brazil midfielder. The fact Kalvin Phillips never worked out following his £45 million move from Leeds in 2022 has hurt City and there is no expectation of the England midfielder being brought back early from a season-long loan to Ipswich, which tells its own story.

Mateo Kovacic, who was back in the squad against Juventus after a month out injured, has been steady if unspectacular and further ahead there is disappointment at how Matheus Nunes has done since his £55 million move from Wolves and the £42.5 million sale of academy graduate Cole Palmer, now one of the Premier League’s star turns, to Chelsea has backfired. Similarly, Romeo Lavia, who left City for Southampton in 2022, is now impressing for Chelsea too and would be a welcome addition to Guardiola’s distressed midfield.

Bernardo, who has been open to leaving for several summers, has dropped off this term, Gundogan, 34, does not have the legs to make the runs he used to and has struggled since returning on a free transfer from Barcelona and then there is De Bruyne. A decision on the Belgium midfielder’s future has been put on hold for now but he will have to prove his fitness to earn a new one-year contract and even then there are no guarantees he will stay with Saudi Arabian and MLS clubs monitoring his movements and a move within the City Football Group another option.

It means a No 10 is also a position they must address and City are one of the many admirers of the Bayer Leverkusen and Germany attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz while the likes of Eberechi Eze and Matheus Cunha have been scouted previously.

Guardiola is said to still have faith in Jack Grealish, who he has recently been using in central midfield, believes there is a lot more to come from Jeremy Doku and the young and talented Oscar Bobb has still to return, but they could also be in the market for another winger.

Goals have seldom been an issue for a team who have topped the league scoring charts in every season under Guardiola bar his first but this term there has been a worrying over-dependence on Erling Haaland, who was the only player in the starting XI for the 2-0 defeat by Liverpool a fortnight ago with a league goal to his name.

That has been laid bare during this dreadful run when Haaland has, uncharacteristically, been missing chances. Whereas the prolific Norway striker had over-performed his expected goals (xG) ratio by 8.7 since his City debut up to scoring the only goal in a 1-0 win over Southampton on October 26, his xG has since fallen by more than 12 points to minus 3.45.

Julián Alvarez’s sale, while understandable given the Argentina forward’s desire to leave and the £81.5 million fee Atlético Madrid stumped up, has left City short of quality alternatives in attack and there is a desire to provide greater support around Haaland. They have a buyback option on Liam Delap, who is attracting a host of suitors given his impressive form with Ipswich and it will be interesting to see if City try to spike the guns of rivals pursuing the burgeoning England Under-21 striker.

At the opposite end of the pitch, goalkeeper Ederson, who came close to leaving for Saudi Arabia last summer and who was dropped for the last three league games, may yet push for a move. Walker, who will be 35 in May, is being dribbled past more than at any stage of his City career and could exit, Stones and Ake’s persistent injuries are becoming an increasing worry and £77 million signing Josko Gvardiol is having a tough time of it.

Everton centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite, who was the subject of several bids from Manchester United last summer, is thought to be on City’s radar and another England defender, Marc Guehi, is likely to be in demand at the end of the season when he will enter the final 12 months of his deal at Crystal Palace. Bayern Munich left back Alphonso Davies is out of contract this summer.

Cash no issue – but 115 charges a concern

Whereas money is tight across most of Europe amid deepening financial constraints, many clubs are looking to City to spend and kickstart the transfer market. The champions have built up enormous reserves in recent years, having made a £336.5 million profit on player sales over the previous five seasons and brought in another £160 million last summer thanks largely to the sales of Alvarez, Joao Cancelo and Taylor Harwood-Bellis, with just £33 million spent on the young Brazil winger Savinho. That equates to more than £460 million over a six-year period. Although there are no suggestions they are going to reinvest all of those profits in new players next year, the reality is cash for a big rebuild is one obstacle City do not face.

Internally, there is said to be no panic, a message reinforced by Begiristain and chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak. They know the No 6 position is a problem and there are other issues to address but players are coming back and they expect the second half of the season to be different. The handover to Viana is a complicating factor and the greater unknown, and potential spanner in the works, is the outcome of their bitter legal battle with the Premier League over those 115 charges. City deny any wrongdoing.

But Guardiola staying is an undoubted boon and should greatly assist the club’s efforts to refresh the squad. City may be struggling badly right now – and Guardiola looking more uncomfortable under the pressure than at any stage in his gilded managerial career – but it will do little to diminish the appeal of playing for him.

Whether the Catalan will actually see out the two-year contract extension he signed last month to stay until 2027 is another matter but, at the very least, it projects an image of stability. “He wasn’t about to leave having the squad like this,” one source said.

The team has undergone three evolutions under Guardiola over the past eight and a half years but establishing City 4.0 could be his biggest challenge of the lot. They have left themselves with a lot of work to do.

City have just three defenders for derby

By Jason Burt and James Ducker

Guardiola is facing a defensive crisis ahead of Sunday’s derby. The City manager is set to have just three fit senior defenders, Ruben Dias, Walker and Gvardiol, available for the visit of United to the Etihad Stadium.

Rico Lewis’s red card in Saturday’s 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace means he will miss the game through suspension while Stones, Akanji and Ake are all injured.

Ake is expected to be sidelined for weeks with another hamstring injury and Stones has played once since the end of October owing to a condition called plantar fasciitis, which is causing pain and inflammation in the heel and bottom of his feet. Guardiola said 10 days ago that the England defender was “not close” to a return.

Akanji, who has been managing fitness issues for months, missed the Palace game and the defeat by Juventus after withdrawing at half-time against Nottingham Forest last week and appears unlikely to return against United as things stand.

It does not help that two of his available defenders, Walker and Gvardiol, are both in poor form.

Gvardiol was at fault for Juventus’s first goal as a nightmare past month took another turn for the worse for the Croatia international.

Beyond Dias, Walker and Gvardiol, Guardiola has youngsters Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, who has made two first-team starts and two appearances from the bench this season, and Josh Wilson-Esbrand as alternative defensive options.

Midfielder Kovavic will be involved against United but is not fit enough to play 90 minutes after a month out through injury and was an unused substitute against Juventus. Phil Foden, who is also back after illness, also failed to get off the bench in Turin.

City have conceded 23 goals in their past 10 matches, seven of which have ended in defeat. The 3-0 victory over Forest was their only win in that period and they have failed to score in three of their last six games.