The struggles when it comes to ensuring compliance with the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR) have already been alluded to by Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim.

When the Portuguese was quizzed last month on potential incomings to Old Trafford in the January transfer window he pointed to the club being somewhat hamstrung when it came to what was achievable due to the financial regulations in place.

Ever since the purchase of a 27.7% minority stake in the football club by Sir Jim Ratcliffe and INEOS a year ago, the plan has been to cut costs and make the club more efficient. The era of excess appears to be over and the push to make sure that transfer spend carries value and a return on the investment is a core part of the strategy.

Sitting in 13th position and 13 points off the top four and UEFA Champions League qualification, something that is incredibly valuable to English football’s biggest clubs when it comes to their business models, United look set to miss out on a seat at the table of European football’s lucrative elite knockout competition for a second season running. That will be financially impactful, however much the club may point to commercial revenues continuing to rise.

But when it comes to PSR, where does the club stand at present, and is there the potential for some of the gloomy clouds that had gathered over Old Trafford to disperse?

The aim of PSR is, essentially, to ensure financial prudence and that clubs operate within their means in a sustainable manner. Clubs are permitted to lose £105m over a rolling three-year assessment period, with allowable deductions for such things as investment into infrastructure, investment into the academy and the women’s team, and money spent on community initiatives. Losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic were also permitted.

The current 2024/25 financial year which clubs are currently operating in will be the final year of PSR, with Premier League clubs agreeing to trial a move to a squad cost ratio rule from next season, a move in line with what UEFA use in European competition. However, the PSR calculations will apply for this current financial year, taking into account the rolling three-year period from 2022/23 to 2024/25. The potential for punishment via points deductions will also remain.

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According to figures presented by football finance expert Swiss Ramble, the three-year reporting cycle that took into account 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24, with the latter results already published by United, the club should just about fly under the radar.

While revenue for United grew from £648.4m to £661.8m between 2022/23 and 2023/24, the club posted a pre-tax loss of £130.7m for the most recently published financial year, an increase of £98.1m year on year as the impact of a lack of Champions League football, among other factors, was felt.

According to the figures, United’s combined three-year loss for the assessment period came in at £313m, well above the £105m threshold. However, when taking into account allowable deductions, which include £35m of share sale costs, the total comes to £170m, resulting in a net PSR position of minus £103m. That puts United £2m under the PSR breach threshold for the period, and speaks to the confidence that the club had in stating that they would be compliant with the regulations. It seems unlikely that they will be hit with a breach, even if the margin is tight.

Looking ahead to the final year of PSR as we have known it, the forecasts show that, with the 2021/22 loss of £149.6m dropping off the assessment, that would mean that United could lose as much as £120m and still be compliant.

While that sounds like a large sum and one that should signal the ability to spend with some freedom, the reality is that the financial outlook without Champions League football would be gloomy, and given that £131m was lost in 2023/24, United have some work to do to make sure that they are savvy with player trading.

There will be room to manoeuvre and try to improve the squad, but it will have to be done carefully and the need to add reinforcements to change the club’s fortunes for the better points to the stories that have emerged from Old Trafford in recent days about homegrown players such as Kobbie Mainoo, Alejandro Garnacho and Marcus Rashford being potentially available for transfer. Rashford looks like the most obvious exit, and all three would allow United to book pure profit immediately as they carry no book value.

In short, United have the opportunity to make changes and Amorim will be able to start to shape the side in his image, but it will require the club to spend less in the market and improve player trading, something that they have been very poor with in comparison to their rivals in recent years. The reason for caution is understandable.