March Madness prep: The 10 biggest questions to be answered before Selection Sunday
The men’s college basketball season tipped off 3 1/2 months ago with Dan Hurley grumbling about two-time reigning champ UConn being ranked only No. 3.
A lot has changed since then.
The Huskies have tumbled out of the AP Top 25. So have Gonzaga and North Carolina. Preseason national title favorite Kansas is in jeopardy of joining them.
A team that starts four Division II transfers is 23-3. A team that starts two projected top-five NBA Draft picks is sub-.500. Not every top-10 team is from the suddenly dominant SEC, but sometimes it feels that way.
In just under a month, we'll be spending too much time poring over a fresh bracket, trying to figure out which double-digit seed is poised for a deep run and which perennial power is headed for an early exit.
Here are the 10 biggest questions to be answered between now and Selection Sunday:
1. Who is the favorite to win the national title?
A handful of teams have established themselves as contenders, but right now Auburn has by far the nation’s best résumé. The Tigers (23-2, 11-1) are alone in first place in a historically strong SEC after defeating the likes of Houston, Iowa State, Purdue and Memphis in non-league play. They're 14-2 in Quadrant 1 games. No one else in the country has more than eight Quadrant 1 victories.
Even before its victory at No. 2 Alabama this past Saturday evening, Auburn was the selection committee’s No. 1 overall seed in its early bracket reveal that morning. When asked if he could remember another No. 1 overall seed separating itself from the pack like Auburn has, selection committee chairman Bubba Cunningham admitted he couldn’t.
“They were the unanimous choice,” said Cunningham, the athletic director at North Carolina. “They are clearly our No. 1.”
2. Could the SEC really secure all four No. 1 seeds?
It’s not as far-fetched as you’d think.
Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Texas A&M claimed five of the six top spots in the selection committee’s early bracket reveal this past Saturday. Only Duke prevented the SEC from sweeping all four spots on the top seed line.
For Duke to hold that spot, the Blue Devils will have to keep winning. Whereas SEC teams have the chance to strengthen their résumés almost nightly, the ACC has only two or three projected NCAA tournament teams besides the Blue Devils. Tennessee or Texas A&M could overtake Duke if either of them go on a run and the Blue Devils take a surprise loss or two.
No conference has ever obtained all four No. 1 seeds in a single NCAA tournament. Only the 2019 ACC and the 2009 Big East have ever produced three No. 1 seeds in the same year.
3. What about breaking the record for most NCAA bids from one conference?
There’s a good chance the SEC will surpass the record 11 NCAA tournament bids that the 2011 Big East secured. In fact, if things break right, it may not even be close. Nine SEC teams are locks to make the field of 68 — Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri. That leaves Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Arkansas trying to solidify their spots over the next four weeks.
The SEC was so dominant in November and December that teams that go 7-11 — or, gulp, 6-12 — in league play are likely to make the NCAA tournament. Texas took a big step in the right direction on Saturday when it snapped a three-game skid with a much-needed victory over shorthanded Kentucky. The other SEC bubble teams all endured losses on Saturday, none more damaging than Oklahoma falling against struggling LSU.
4. Who will win national player of the year?
This is a two-man race between two players whose backstories could not be more different. Duke freshman phenom Cooper Flagg has been hailed as the best prospect to come through college basketball since Zion Williamson. He made his collegiate debut at age 17 after choosing the Blue Devils over fellow national powers UConn and Kansas. Auburn fifth-year senior Johni Broome was an afterthought in the 2020 recruiting class. The 22-year-old chose Morehead State over Bryant before reshaping his body, transferring to Auburn and blossoming into one of the nation’s elite big men.
What Flagg and Broome do have in common is their impact this season for two of the nation’s best teams. Flagg has surpassed sky-high expectations for his freshman season and leads Duke in every major statistical category, from points, to rebounds, to assists, to blocks to steals. Broome has put up similar numbers against an even stronger schedule.
5. Who will win national coach of the year?
Auburn has been by far the best team in college basketball despite injuries and off-court drama, including a fight that forced the Tigers’ flight to Houston to be diverted. That makes Bruce Pearl the favorite to be named national coach of the year next month.
Should Auburn falter, there are numerous other contenders. Jon Scheyer has a freshman-laden Duke team poised to win its second ACC regular-season crown since 2010. Rick Pitino has awakened long-dormant St. John’s and guided the Johnnies to first place in the Big East. Pat Kelsey inherited a dumpster fire at Louisville and has the Cardinals in position to not just make the NCAA tournament but potentially win a game or two.
6. Is UConn a contender to three-peat?
The two-time reigning national champions have struggled to replace the four starters they lost to the NBA this past offseason. They’ve made headlines more for Dan Hurley’s sideline antics than for their on-court achievements.
The warning signs first emerged in Maui when UConn went a stunning 0-3, losing in overtime to Memphis, by a single point to Colorado and in a blowout against Dayton. The Huskies steadied themselves after that, but they’ve been ordinary in Big East play and find themselves trailing St. John’s, Marquette and Creighton in the standings.
Is this an NCAA tournament team? Yes. Is this a title contender? Doesn’t look like it. The Huskies (17-8, 9-5) right now project as a No 7 or 8 seed that no elite teams will want to draw in their section of the bracket.
7. What mid-major minnows can swim with the big fish in March?
Here are four with Cinderella potential:
UC San Diego (22-4, 12-2 Big West): In its first year of NCAA tournament eligibility since transitioning from Division II, UC San Diego is having a historic season. The Tritons are in the top 50 in most major computer metrics after pulling an upset at Utah State in non-league play and winning all but two Big West games so far.
Drake (23-3, 13-3 MVC): When Drake hired Ben McCollum last spring, he brought along four starters from Northwest Missouri State. Those Division II transfers have fueled one of college basketball’s best stories so far this season as the Bulldogs toppled Vanderbilt, Kansas State and Miami in non-league play and have surged into first place in the Valley.
McNeese (20-6, 14-1 Southland): McNeese endured plenty of backlash for hiring Will Wade on the heels of a cheating scandal, but the Cowboys have so far only reaped rewards. They’re running away with a second straight Southland Conference title and project as a 12 or 13 seed no one will want to draw in March.
Yale (16-6, 9-0 Ivy): For the first time in program history, Yale is off to a 9-0 start in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs showed flashes of what they were capable of in non-league play, beating Akron, leading Minnesota deep into the second half and falling at Purdue by single digits.
8. Will North Carolina make the NCAA tournament?
If the NCAA tournament bracket were unveiled today, North Carolina likely wouldn’t be part of it. The Tar Heels (15-11) are languishing in the middle of a down ACC after squandering most of their non-league opportunities for marquee wins.
A 1-10 record in Quadrant 1 games is already damaging for North Carolina. What’s worse is that the Tar Heels don’t have many remaining chances to improve on that. They need to stack wins between now and their regular season finale against rival Duke.
9. What about Indiana?
For a team whose coach already announced under pressure that he’s stepping down at the end of the season, Indiana is in a surprisingly decent position entering the season’s final sprint. The Hoosiers (15-11) could still snatch one of the final available at-large bids if they can emerge from their current month-long slump and string together some wins down the stretch.
Three of Indiana’s final five games are against projected NCAA tournament teams. So the opportunities are there if the Hoosiers can take advantage.
10. What coaches are in danger of getting fired at the end of the season?
There are already four power-conference coaching vacancies and the calendar hasn’t even hit March yet. Tony Bennett retired at Virginia. So did Jim Larrañaga at Miami. Leonard Hamilton is stepping down at the end of the season at Florida State, as is Mike Woodson at Indiana.
What other high-profile jobs could open? There are a handful of athletic directors facing tough decisions next month.
Could Villanova decide to move on from Jay Wright’s hand-picked successor if the Wildcats miss the NCAA tournament for a third straight season under Kyle Neptune? Could going from 13-0 to potentially failing to secure an NCAA bid be the end for Porter Moser at Oklahoma? Might Texas move on from former interim coach Rodney Terry and swing big if the Longhorns fade down the stretch?
And then there are two coaches who are probably a year away from headlining every preseason hot-seat list. Hubert Davis will face pressure to get North Carolina performing like an elite team next season. And Adrian Autry must convert a strong incoming recruiting class into wins on the court in order to retain the Syracuse job much longer.