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Michael Penix Jr. isn't going to start for the Falcons this season unless the team completely bails on Kirk Cousins
The Atlanta Falcons already have a quarterback problem, but it's not one automatically solved by just yanking the veteran for the rookie.
Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins looked all out of sorts against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, as his post-Achilles tear debut showed lots of rust and a clear schematic guardrail put up around his current abilities.
The Falcons' offense with Cousins coming off his injury looks like it's using training wheels to give the vet the most comfortable slide back into NFL play, one without any play-action concepts (a Cousins staple) or any need to be anything but a statue in the pocket that finds the most convenient read possible.
What that means for the Falcons in the interim might be grim, as the team is already breaking in a new offensive scheme and a rookie play caller in Zac Robinson. Wins may not be easy to come by right away with the schedule as tough as it is for Atlanta to start the season. The Eagles, Chiefs, Saints and Buccaneers all await in that order.
A rusty Cousins who isn't yet comfortable with himself on the field could put the Falcons in a deep hole and make winning the division a much taller task than anticipated. That's just the risk the team assumed when it signed Cousins in the first place, and the only way out right now for the quarterback and the team requires ironclad patience and live game reps.
However, Cousins adapting back to football after his injury isn't going to cause the Falcons to press the panic button and start rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. earlier than planned.
Even if a healthy Penix hypothetically gives the team more avenues to run a more varied offense, the Falcons just paid Cousins an enormous contract that should keep him in Atlanta through the 2025 season, if not longer.
A couple of rough games of Cousins acclimating back to full-speed football in a limited offense isn't going to make the organization pull the plug on the veteran quarterback's tenure in Atlanta potentially years ahead of schedule. Even if the Falcons fall to 0-5 to start the season in the nightmare scenario, it's still most likely going to be Cousins' team as Penix waits for his turn in the wings.
While that might be a bitter pill to swallow for Falcons fans who yearn to make it back to the playoffs, a couple of rough games for Cousins in an Atlanta uniform probably isn't going to send him to the bench for Penix.
That's just not likely to happen. Playing quarterback musical chairs in 2023 between Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke is partly why Arthur Smith lost his job with Atlanta as its head coach, as the team not sticking with Ridder turned out to be an even worse decision when Heinicke wasn't much better, got hurt and Ridder rejoined the lineup later in the season. Even with his turnover habits, he still deserved the season to figure things out and probably would've been more successful without the unnecessary hiatus.
If the Falcons start Penix, they don't go back to Cousins. You can't turn back to a healthier Cousins if Penix goes out, plays well and wins over the fans and locker room. Even if Penix struggles mightily, that's going to be graded on the rookie curve. You don't bench a rookie for looking like a rookie.
The former Washington star was drafted to the Falcons as Cousins' heir apparent, but Cousins' contract and all of the team's messaging strongly hints that the veteran bridge is going to extend past this season.
Putting Penix in as early as October basically exiles Cousins to a future with another organization. The team would have to eat an outrageous amount of dead cap space to move on him after this season, either via a trade or through an outright release.
For a guy that was just voted a captain by his teammates and whose arrival made the Falcons a trendy NFC playoff pick, it'd feel grossly premature to just call it on his tenure with the team, even if he does take a bit to round form and be more of the guy he's been at earlier stops.
Starting Penix now basically throws out the plan to develop him behind the scenes via the Jordan Love/Green Bay Packers model, one that was cited heavily by the Falcons' brass when trying to justify the Penix pick in the first place.
While it's possible Atlanta discovered something foreboding about Cousins' health after signing him and picked Penix as an escape hatch, it's more likely that Cousins is just not quite where anyone wants him to be just yet and that the team is just going to sweat it out early for him to shake it off in real time.
Raheem Morris is barely a game into his return to the Falcons as a head coach, and his regime is not going to be on the hot seat with a historically patient Arthur Blank unless the 2024 Falcons are the second coming of the 2008 Detroit Lions. There isn't necessarily a rush to make the postseason in Atlanta for this coaching staff, even if the team's six-season playoff drought stings even more the longer it goes.
Drafting Penix means Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot have time to buy since they can always lean on the rookie quarterback to sell the future even if the present produces diminishing results with Cousins. They won't hurry Penix into the lineup while Cousins washes off the rust just to alleviate outside concern and criticism and gain a more immediate (and hypothetical) competitive advantage. Even then, Penix is still a rookie and wouldn't be immune to on-field struggles that cause the Falcons to lose.
The scenario where Penix does play comes with the Falcons being eliminated from playoff contention and loses hope in Cousins ever being his old self again post-injury. In that world, Cousins gets traded or cut next spring and Penix goes ahead to get a few games in for posterity before 20245.
The other situation involves Cousins suffering another season-ending injury and the team having no choice other than to start Penix for the rest of the year. Neither are as likely as the most plausible scenario, which is Cousins dusts off his struggles eventually and plays solid football once he's settled back into full-time game play.
If Cousins is washed post-Achilles, the Falcons will stomach the devastating failure of his signing and move on to Penix earlier than hoped. That won't be determined for at least the next couple of months of the season, if not longer.
If Cousins plays like he did on Sunday in November and shows tangible signs of permanent aging, the Falcons might have to make some hard, hard calls sooner than later. If Cousins plays like this for the rest of the month and starts to show signs of life in October, it'll be all systems go for the quarterback's tenure with the Falcons.
Either way, starting Penix early is a worst-case scenario for the Cousins era of Falcons football. You can bet Atlanta has all the incentive and hope in the world for Captain Kirk to settle into his starting job, which is why Penix won't start for the team this fall unless all else fails and Cousins is a bust.
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This article originally appeared on For The Win: Michael Penix Jr. isn't going to start for the Falcons this season unless the team completely bails on Kirk Cousins
