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Middlesbrough-Sunderland prediction made as Michael Carrick is told how to exploit Le Bris' side

Sunderland manager Regis Le Bris celebrates
-Credit:PA


Middlesbrough are set to host Sunderland at the Riverside on Monday evening in an eagerly-anticipated Championship clash - with regional bragging rights, three points and the potential to strengthen play-off hopes on the cards for both sides.

Both of the north east outfits have enjoyed impressive seasons within the second tier so far. Michael Carrick’s Boro side have been in free-flowing goalscoring form, playing the Manchester United legend’s now accustomed high-possession, front-foot style of football which sees them as one the league’s top scorers pipped only by Leeds and Norwich.

The Black Cats have taken the Championship by storm - and surprise - this season, solidifying themselves as genuine Premier League promotion contenders. It's an impressive achievement thus far, in only head coach Regis Le Bris’ first campaign in the Sunderland hotseat after his summer arrival on Wearside in the wake of their disastrous 16th-placed finish last term.

READ MORE: Michael Carrick's verdict on Middlesbrough selling key players and the 'extreme' football cycle

READ MORE: Middlesbrough's proud home record against Sunderland that they must continue on Monday evening

Ahead of the crucial Championship clash, Sunderland writer Ethan Todd offers insight into Sunderland's season so far, what the inevitably-feisty regional battle will have in store as well as the areas in which Sunderland look most dangerous - and vulnerable.

Story of Sunderland’s season

Sunderland’s story so far this season has certainly been surprising for the Black Cats faithful. Going into this term with a new, unknown quantity in the dugout in Le Bris off the back of a disastrous campaign prior to his arrival, not many supporters on Wearside would’ve envisaged the top two being firmly in the crosshairs.

The frustrating element is that the Black Cats’ fortunes could’ve easily been so much more impressive. Throughout the season, Le Bris’ side have showcased not only their individual flair but a deeply-connected team who work tooth and nail for each other. In some moments, the Black Cats have blown teams out of the water, steamrolling them with high-pressing and fast transitions from defence to attack.

Equally though, they’ve at times sat deep and defended in a compact structure, culminating in them scoring the fourth-most goals in the league this term (42) whilst also boding the fourth-best defensive record in terms of least goals shipped (24). However, there is an evident achilles heel the Black Cats unfortunately possess. 36 per cent of Sunderland's goals shipped this term have come within the last ten minutes and injury time.

Most recently, strugglers Plymouth Argyle managed to salvage a point after Nathanael Ogebat’s 90th-minute suckerpunch. Weeks prior in the festive period, on Boxing day the Black Cats conceded a 90th-minute equaliser against Blackburn, then days later then-Stoke striker Tom Cannon fired a winner in the 92nd to snatch all three points for the Potters. Imperative points dropped - thanks to soft goals - in the dying embers of the fixture which could cost the Black Cats dearly towards the business end of the campaign.

How much is riding on this game?

Every game currently feels akin to a must-not-lose for the Black Cats and the Boro clash will be no different. Le Bris’ side head into Monday evening with a handful of points separating the outlying four at the summit.

The Black Cats head to the Riverside motivated to put the disappointing afternoon against Argyle in the rearview mirror and once again grit their teeth towards the automatic promotion hunting pack. If Sunderland fail to take at least a point from Boro - which will inevitably be a difficult task - and those big-hitters above them pick up points then their claws on the possibility of top two could start to slip.

How will they approach the game?

Frenchman Le Bris, despite this being only his third season to date as a senior team manager following his two terms as FC Lorient boss, has proven himself to be a very tactically-capable coach. One of Le Bris’ most impressive traits is his adaptability depending on the opposition.

Even at home this term, the 49-year-old has instructed his team to drop deep when necessary in a compact structure, or go after the ball with tenacious high-pressing, which his side, brimming with youthful exuberance, are perfectly suited to physically.

Reverse fixture

Looking back to the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light can certainly shed some on how this clash may play out. In trademark Carrick fashion, Boro played some beautiful football and dominated the ball in the early stages with forward Tommy Conway spurning a gilt-edged chance which would’ve put his side deservedly a goal to the good.

However, Black Cats wonderkid Chris Rigg - as the 17-year-old has done on so many occasions this term - produced a moment of genuine magic with an ingenious, instinctive backheel to put Sunderland ahead. Boro enjoyed the lion’s share of possession, with both sides having chances to score, in what was a riveting game and a brilliant advert for north east football.

As he so often does, Le Bris instructed his side to drop deeper and protect the lead whilst hoping to punish Boro on the counter, as Boro failed to find an equaliser despite ending with 63 per cent possession. A telltale sign of both team’s seasons so far.

Areas for Boro to exploit

Both Boro and the Black Cats are evenly-poised in terms of attacking quality and this is where the clash will be won or lost. Evidenced, the thorn in Le Bris’ side all season has been conceding late, sloppy goals which have cost the Black Cats imperative points.

Supporters’ frustrations have been evident, with some hoping the Frenchman stops opting to defend with a 5-back formation to see out a late lead, which against Argyle invited an avalanche of pressure which the Cats’ defence eventually crumbled underneath.

With Boro being the Championships' third-top scorers this term, buoyed by the recent arrival of dangerous wide-forward Morgan Whittaker, then the Black Cats’ backline must be prepared for Boro’s four-pronged attack to persistently attempt to storm their gates.

Most dangerous players

Boro no strangers to conceding in cursory fashion themselves, and Sunderland certainly yield some dangerous weapons in their own arsenal. Zenit Saint Petersburg loanee Wilson Isidor is the club’s top scorer this term - firing nine in the league - and provides a persistent threat with the Frenchman’s sheer pace.

Young forward Eliezer Mayenda has four goals and five assists to his name this season in an impressive breakthrough campaign for the raw, yet very dangerous, 19-year-old. January loan arrival Enzo Le Fee has shown flashes of the brilliance which saw him rival Lionel Messi and Neymar for chances created during his time under Le Bris at Lorient, despite being shoehorned in on the left-wing due to injuries, and will prove an amply difficult task for Luke Ayling and the Boro backline to contend with.

Sunderland have looked most dangerous this term without the ball, transitioning rapidly from defence to attack and allowing their technically-gifted midfielders to feed forwards Isidor and Mayenda through, blowing sides out of the water with counter-attacks. This threat could prove pivotal against Boro and play right into Sunderland’s hands.

Prediction

Sunderland last week endured eight days and three fixtures which perfectly epitomise the drama of the second tier. A stalemate at Turf Moor in which Isidor missed not one, but two, injury time penalties. Victory away at Derby where Isidor had a seemingly perfectly lawful goal chalked out only after the fact by the officials. Then, throwing away two points in the Plymouth draw thanks to a late goal from a team are the second-lowest scorers in the division this term.

In boxing, they say styles make fights, and with Boro’s high-possession, free-flowing style facing off against Sunderland’s transitional firepower, there will likely be a number of blows - and goals - traded between the two opponents when they square off on Monday evening.

Whether Boro beat the Black Cats, vice versa, or the spoils are shared, one outcome that is highly unlikely is a goalless stalemate with the heavy hitters in attack in both corners. 2-2 it’ll end in my eyes, with ever-dangerous Ben Doak and Finn Azaz to fire for Boro, matched by goals from Isidor and Mayenda for the Black Cats.