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Middlesbrough's automatic promotion chances and realistic expectations - Boro panel

Goalscorer Tommy Conway (r) and Ben Doak of Middlesbrough celebrate
-Credit:Getty Images


After disappointing results at Burnley and Leeds United, the weekend once again swung in Middlesbrough's favour as their victory over Millwall left them just eight points adrift of second place and automatic promotion.

Boro have, at times this season, shown they have more than enough quality to compete in what remains a wide open division as no side shows quite enough consistency to run away with the promotion race. But that applies to Michael Carrick's side too, as they sit sixth in the table ahead of their final game before Christmas.

So are Boro still automatic promotion candidates? And was that even a realistic expectation at the start of the season. That's what we asked our fan panel this week. Our panel this week consists of Youtuber and talkSport journalist Phil Spencer, Boropolis co-founder Chris Cassidy and Twe12th Man member John Donovan.

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Phil Spencer

I still think automatic promotion is a realistic prospect, but that doesn't mean that it's likely. As Middlesbrough fans know all too well, the Championship is a mysterious beast that often throws up many surprises in the second half of the season.

Every year clubs think that the way the table looks at Christmas is how it will look in May and that very rarely proves to be the case. For Middlesbrough, I'm not suggesting that automatic promotion is probable - it's not.

There's a reasonable amount of ground to make up, not to mention the prospect of leapfrogging the likes of Sheffield United, Burnley and Leeds who are undoubtedly favourites. But I still believe that it's a possibility, particularly if we can maintain the sort of form that we've shown over the last month or two.

At the start of the season I hoped that we would be confidently in the play-off mix with an outside chance of going for the top two - as it stands, I believe that that's still a realistic aim. We need to aim higher than merely getting in the top six, but I believe that we should be pushing for 3rd or 4th and really putting some pressure on the top teams.

Going up automatically is highly unlikely, but given the potential for Leeds and others to bottle it as we move into March or April, you can never say never - particularly in this league!

John Donovan

While automatic promotion looks unlikely, due to a slow start and our indifferent home form, you won't see me ruling it out, not with 75 points still to play for. Home form will be key. Sheffield United have only dropped two points out of 30 at home, Leeds have dropped five out of 33. We have dropped 13 out of 33.

If we can improve at home, and scrape out wins when not playing particularly well, like the Millwall game on Saturday, we may still be in with a shout of top two, especially when you consider the homes games we still have to come, Burnley, West Brom, Sunderland, Watford, Leeds.

Consistency is key, we can't play well every game, but if we can keep picking up points we will be in the mix. After the August transfer window closed I fancied us for automatic promotion with play offs as a minimum requirement. As fans we'd go mad if we thought the players had given up on the automatics at this stage of the season. If or when top 2 becomes unachievable then we look at best place in the play off spots. Keep the faith.

Chris Cassidy

This topic is a timely one. Thus, mainly because of the immediate social media reaction to the defeat at Leeds. There seemed to be a collective acceptance that the loss marked not only an end to any aspirations of automatic promotion but also a realisation of the gap in quality between the two squads.

Admittedly, as of right now, the gap of eight points does seem a significant mountain to climb, but I don’t think it’s impossible. Indeed, we’ve seen on multiple occasions over Carrick’s tenure that his sides usually have it in them to go on extended winning runs.

However, given we’re just about at the halfway mark of the season, I don’t think there’s enough evidence to suggest this version of Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough could sustain a promotion push. They have one too many bad habits, and I still think there’s a question mark about a potential soft centre.

Nevertheless, I do feel there has been a little bit of revisionism when it comes to people’s pre-season aspirations. Middlesbrough were right amongst the bookies’ favourites for automatic promotion, and I think if you look at Boro’s squad as a whole, you can see why.

You could certainly make a case that the likes of Sheffield United and Burnley have better starting XI’s, but there are not many names on either bench that would be an improvement on what we have available. The playoffs certainly wouldn’t be a failure, but I don’t feel that the top two was ever some sort of pipe dream.

As well as hearing their views on particular Boro topics on Teesside Live each week, you can also hear from them further on their respective platforms. Phil Spencer runs his own Youtube channel which you can subscribe to here. Chris Cassidy is part of the Boropolis Podcast, and John Donovan is a mainstay on the Twe12th Man Podcast, all of which you can listen to on all major podcast outlets.