Advertisement

MLB playoffs 2024 power rankings: Which teams are primed to go on a World Series run right now?

The Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees are rolling at the right time. The Mets, Braves and Royals have some things to worry about.

jordan shusterman
Senior writer
·18-min read

It took an additional day and two of the more ludicrous games we’ve seen in quite some time, but the 12-team field for the 2024 postseason has finally been set. After an improbable victory in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader clinched a postseason berth for the Mets, the Braves got the job done in Game 2 to secure a postseason spot themselves.

With the defending champion Texas Rangers home for the winter, it’s guaranteed that for the 24th year in a row, a different team will hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy than the one that did so a year ago. That fact alone never fails to infuse a heightened sense of anticipation about what’s to come in October, as we’ll soon witness a fresh group of ballplayers capture the prize they all so desperately covet.

But before the first pitches of the wild-card series are thrown on Tuesday, let’s take stock of the dozen teams left standing after 162 games and how they stack up in their pursuits of a World Series title.

Subscribe to Baseball Bar-B-Cast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Although the Dodgers edged out Philadelphia for the No. 1 overall seed, the Phillies enter October with the fewest obvious weaknesses of any team, thus earning them the top spot in these power rankings at the outset of the postseason. With All-Stars in the lineup, rotation and bullpen — and an impact back-end arm in Carlos Estévez brought in at the deadline to fortify the relief corps — we’ve seen all three units of this roster excel at various points this season; now it’s a matter of synchronizing their performances to ensure a third consecutive deep playoff run, perhaps one that ends less bitterly than the previous two.

Any team, no matter how talented, can fall victim to the torturous reality of October randomness, but this group appears particularly primed for success in the coming weeks. It is also a group intimately familiar with what it takes to succeed at this time of year, as the vast majority of this roster has been in place as Citizens Bank Park has become an October mainstay over the past two seasons. That continuity is unmatched by any other team in the field and could be crucial as the Phillies look to finally get over the hump and claim their first World Series title since 2008.

In some respects, we’ve reached October with the Dodgers in the exact position many projected in March: with the best record in baseball and a juggernaut lineup that strikes fear into the hearts of any opponent. What we didn’t anticipate was the staggering degree of attrition this pitching staff would endure, even in an era that has practically desensitized us to star pitchers going down at inopportune times. Shohei Ohtani’s historic regular season in his first year as a Dodger has kept the vibes high — and fueled a ton of winning — but now our attention turns to October, a month that has proven far more challenging for L.A. than April through September.

Can Los Angeles’ outrageous collection of offensive firepower compensate for its dramatically depleted pitching staff? If any offense can simply outscore its shortcomings on the mound, it’s this one. How often the Dodgers are able to use Yoshinobu Yamamoto — who is expected to continue to need more rest between starts than is typical for a rotation ace at this time of year — is a massive unknown within the team’s pitching plans, which puts further pressure on the likes of Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to deliver in their starts. The saving grace might turn out to be a bullpen that has been considerably underrated for much of this season and looks even stronger with Michael Kopech in the fold.

Still, for all that the Dodgers invested in this team, the expectations will remain sky-high no matter how many pitchers are on the injured list. And with Ohtani in the postseason for the first time, every single pitch and plate appearance of the Dodgers’ playoff run will transpire under the brightest of spotlights and welcome the most intense of scrutiny — as they should.

Speaking of expectations, did you know the Yankees — the team with more championships than any other franchise in MLB history — haven’t been to the World Series since 2009? That might have been mentioned a few times over the past decade or so, but it seems a relevant note to restate as New York embarks on its first — and perhaps last — playoff run in the Juan Soto era.

The aggressive acquisition of Soto in the wake of the Yankees’ dismally disappointing 2023 was a bold declaration that such mediocre results were flatly unacceptable in the Bronx, and the team responded in turn this season: with a division title and the best record in the American League. The highly anticipated pairing of Soto and Aaron Judge somehow managed to exceed expectations, as Judge delivered, by wRC+, the greatest season ever recorded by a right-handed hitter while Soto too provided MVP-caliber production, setting career highs in hits and home runs.

Shaky defense and generally atrocious baserunning remain notable red flags for this position-player group, but it’s possible that this lineup can out-slug its deficiencies. Plus, with a top of the rotation that has started to round into form, including an ace in Gerrit Cole who is finally starting to look like himself, there is considerably more optimism on the mound than there was at earlier stages of the season, albeit with some persisting concerns about the bullpen. Whether or not this ends up being Soto’s final year in pinstripes, this looks like as good of a chance as we’ve seen in a while for New York to return to the Fall Classic.

Alongside the Phillies, the Padres have arguably the most balanced roster of all the teams in the playoff field, hence their slotting in ahead of several division winners in these rankings. Like several other contenders, San Diego needed to navigate some absences in the rotation over the course of the season but enters the postseason with five quality starting pitching options, led by two massively successful offseason additions in Dylan Cease and Michael King. It should come as no surprise that fresh faces are once again a major theme of this Padres roster, as the bullpen received two vital reinforcements at the deadline in the form of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott, not to mention the rare April blockbuster that added Luis Arraez to the top of the lineup.

While the Padres don’t draw many walks, they also rarely strike out, with a 17.6% strikeout rate that comfortably ranks as the lowest in MLB. The ability to consistently put the ball in play in an era in which whiffs are at an all-time high could prove especially beneficial in October, as opposing teams’ pitching staffs get nastier and nastier as the rounds progress. The acquisition of baseball’s best contact hitter in Arraez has certainly contributed to those efforts, but it’s not like this is a team full of slap hitters; there’s plenty of potent power potential surrounding Arraez, making San Diego’s lineup one of the more exciting offensive units in the league.

Most importantly, manager Mike Shildt has helped all these new pieces mesh seamlessly with the talented core that was already in place, and that’s a huge part of why the Padres now find themselves in such a strong position. Although they weren’t able to chase down the Dodgers for the NL West crown, the scene at Petco Park should be sensational this week, as a ballpark that has been absolutely bumping all season will have the chance to host playoff baseball once again.

Cleveland rode baseball’s best bullpen and another MVP-caliber campaign from José Ramírez

to its fifth division title in the past nine seasons — and this one carries a lot more weight in the context of a rejuvenated AL Central that featured four teams jockeying for playoff position until the final weekend. That Cleveland was also able to secure a first-round bye is further testament to how successful Stephen Vogt’s managerial debut has been thus far, but Vogt will also be the first person to tell you that what the Guardians accomplished in the regular season is now in the rearview. What is this team capable of in October?

With baseball’s best closer in Emmanuel Clase and a bullpen chock-full of highly effective arms — you’d better familiarize yourself with the stylings of rookie right-hander Cade Smith — Cleveland will look to seize early leads before turning the ball over to the relievers as soon as possible. Tanner Bibee’s emergence down the stretch has been pivotal for a rotation that has endured substantial turnover due to injuries and underperformance, but he’s likely the only Guardians starter who will be afforded an extended leash, considering how many reliable bullpen arms are at Vogt’s disposal.

Ramirez’s switch-hitting, power-speed brilliance will continue to pace the lineup, but Cleveland’s offensive ceiling would be raised significantly if Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor can rediscover the first-half forms that made them All-Stars. That’s a fairly crucial component here, considering how Cleveland’s lineup stacks up against those of some of the other postseason powerhouses. Then again, this group has proven all year that its recipe for success is a good one.

The parallels with Cleveland are tough to ignore: two savvy, small-market clubs that defied preseason projections and expectations with shrewd team-building and exquisite bullpen construction to emerge as Central division champions — as they have several times in recent seasons. The challenge for Milwaukee now is to prove it in October, something that has been a struggle for this franchise despite substantial regular-season success. Like the Guardians, the Brewers will likely be leaning heavily on their bullpen to compensate for a shallow rotation, but Milwaukee boasts considerable star power in the lineup that could provide the pitching staff with more of a cushion.

Even after losing face-of-the-franchise Christian Yelich to season-ending back surgery, the Brew Crew enter October with one of baseball’s best catchers in William Contreras, a standout shortstop enjoying a career year in Willy Adames and a 20-year-old phenom in Jackson Chourio, who seems to be getting better with each passing week. This team runs the bases well, plays good defense and has found ways to get outs all year. It’s no accident that they finished the season with a +136 run differential, third in MLB behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. Pat Murphy guiding the Brewers back to the postseason after Craig Counsell’s shocking departure to the rival Cubs is already one of the great managerial storylines we’ve seen in a long time. Are there more magical moments to come for Milwaukee? Stay tuned.

For just the second time in its remarkable run of eight consecutive trips to October (and first in a full season), Houston will be subject to the wild-card round, as the Stros were unable to chase down Cleveland to secure the first-round bye that has been so familiar for them in recent years. However, the Astros’ failing to finish with a top-two record in the American League is more a product of their abysmal 7-19 start than it is a reflection of the team as currently constructed. Only the Dodgers and Padres posted better records after April than the Astros, an extended stretch that exemplifies the standard of excellence we’ve come to expect from this franchise.

A rotation ravaged by season-ending injuries was gradually rebuilt on the fly and now looks like one of the deepest in baseball, thanks to the breakouts of Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown and the deadline acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly haven’t quite lived up to the Big 3 moniker ascribed to them in the wake of Hader’s surprising signing, but it’s still a trio that should help Houston shorten games in the event that any of the starters falter. Yordan Alvarez’s health — he hasn’t played since Sept. 22 due to a knee sprain — is something to monitor in the coming days, but this is still a lineup stocked with above-average bats, many of whom have extensive track records of producing in October.

The annual fool’s errand of trying to predict what will occur in October has recently come with one convenient caveat: You can count on the Astros to make it to the ALCS. While they must traverse an extra round this year en route to a possible eighth straight trip to the championship series, their quality of play in the second half suggests that Houston once again looks like one of the best bets to emerge from the American League playoff field.

The Orioles ran side-by-side with the Yankees atop the AL East for five months before a fallow September dropped them into wild-card position, albeit still with the opportunity to host the opening round at Camden Yards. That home-field advantage proved fairly meaningless a year ago, when Texas rolled into Baltimore and swiftly dispatched the O’s in the first two games of the ALDS en route to a sweep; this year’s team will look to avoid a similar fate against Kansas City.

That starts with Corbin Burnes, who was acquired practically for this exact situation: to pitch Game 1 of a postseason series against another team’s ace. While Zach Eflin represents a capable No. 2 starter, it will be Burnes’ ability to set the tone each and every time he takes the ball this postseason that could end up defining the Orioles’ ceiling. Baltimore’s depth on the mound beyond Burnes and Eflin is murky at best, especially relative to a number of its potential October opponents.

That said, we should not lose sight of the fact that when healthy — and the much-needed recent returns of Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias are a great sign on that front — this Baltimore offense can bang with the best of ‘em. There is serious slugging potential up and down this lineup, and this team is built to bludgeon its opponents with sheer power if enough of the stars can heat up at the right time, shallow pitching staff be damned.

Despite microscopic playoff odds as late as mid-August, a September surge for the ages propelled this gritty Tigers team all the way to a postseason berth, the franchise’s first since 2014. Here’s one way to look at the Tigers’ roster entering October: Their best position player (Riley Greene) might not be better than any other playoff team’s best position player, but their best pitcher (Tarik Skubal) might be the best pitcher in the field. That dynamic carries only so much weight in a team sport, of course, but it paints an accurate picture of how Detroit is built. With the soon-to-be AL Cy Young Skubal and an army of excellent relievers deployed masterfully by manager AJ Hinch, the Tigers’ pitching staff is capable of neutralizing even the most high-powered of opposing lineups.

But will this ultra-young, overwhelmingly left-handed offense — one that statistically ranks as arguably the weakest in the playoff field — be able to score enough runs when the lights are brightest? It’s hard to ignore the fact that virtually nobody on this roster has any experience playing in the postseason, but perhaps Detroit’s they-don’t-know-any-better mentality of the past six weeks will sustain into October. At the very least, it should help that skipper Hinch is no stranger to winning games at this time of year — and Detroit’s first opponent being the Astros team with which Hinch garnered all that postseason experience makes the start of this playoff run all the more compelling.

What has been a downright ridiculous regular season for the Mets ended as only it could: with one of the more unbelievable, nail-biting victories imaginable on Monday in Atlanta, thanks in large part to heroics from shortstop Francisco Lindor. As expected, New York rolled out the B-team in Game 2 in an act of self-preservation, having clinched a postseason berth, and will now head to Milwaukee as the No. 6 seed in hopes of extending its roller-coaster ride of a season further. And while the bullpen has been taxed heavily over the past few days, the rotation — a unit that has been exceptionally effective in the second half — is lined up rather well for New York all things considered, with Luis Severino and Sean Manaea locked and loaded for the first two games against the Brewers.

As for the offense, concern about Lindor’s lingering back injury feels less significant after the performance we witnessed from him on Monday, but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. It’s also not fair to expect him to shoulder the brunt of the responsibility in a lineup that features this many recognizable names. Beyond Lindor, the offensive production has fluctuated wildly between the familiar veterans (Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte), the ascendent youngsters (Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Luisangel Acuna) and the veteran additions (J.D. Martinez, Jose Iglesias, Jesse Winker), but if the Mets’ bats can get fully in sync, they will be a lot for opposing pitching staffs to deal with.

A season already largely defined by devastating injuries for Atlanta featured one more stunning twist, with the late-breaking news that ace Chris Sale would be unable to start the second game of Monday’s double-header — a game Atlanta needed to win to clinch a playoff berth — due to back spasms. Fortunately for the Braves, the Mets had little incentive to put their best foot forward, having already clinched their own spot by winning Game 1, affording the Braves the opportunity to sneak into the backdoor of the postseason with a comfortable Game 2 win against the Mets’ B-team, despite Atlanta’s pitching plans going up in flames at the last second.

So now here the Braves are, in the postseason for a seventh consecutive season but potentially without Sale’s arm to count on as they head to San Diego for this week’s wild-card series. Until this point, it had been the Braves’ offense that had more impacted by injuries, leaving a lineup that can certainly hit homers but isn’t especially good at anything else, with below-average plate discipline and a complete lack of impact on the basepaths limiting the avenues by which the Braves can produce runs. But with Sale’s health a concern and breakout right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who threw six innings Saturday before appearing in relief on Monday, seemingly unavailable or at least limited in the coming days, the Braves face a surprising number of questions on the mound as well.

Just a few days ago, the Braves projected to enter October with arguably the best pitching staff we’ve seen from them during their recent run of trips to the playoffs and with arguably their worst offense. Now, after a total bullpen implosion in Game 1 and the ominous news of Sale’s injury, it’s tough to know what to expect from this team moving forward.

As is the case for their fellow surprise AL Central playoff entrant in Detroit, Kansas City’s best hopes of a deep playoff run involve a strong pitching staff compensating for a lackluster offense. What the Royals have that the Tigers do not, however, are Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. The nature of our sport might limit Witt’s ability to single-handedly carry his team to the mountaintop like an NBA superstar or NFL quarterback could, but his exceptional, all-around ability will afford him the chance to impact the game in a variety of ways, whether it be swinging the bat, on the bases or with his glove. Perez, meanwhile, is finally back in the postseason after yet another excellent offensive campaign as Kansas City’s primary backstop. His experience and leadership have been invaluable throughout the Royals’ rebuild, and now he has the chance to lead another memorable playoff run with an entirely new cast of characters.

More important for Kansas City’s success will be continued excellence on the mound. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo lead a revitalized rotation, and deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg has helped stabilize a bullpen that was a weakness earlier in the season but has emerged as formidable down the stretch. The possible return of Vinnie Pasquantino, on the injured list since late August due to a broken right thumb, looms as a potential X-factor for an offense that was quite literally baseball’s worst in September (61 wRC+). Otherwise, it will be on the non-Witt, non-Perez members of the lineup to step up in support of a pitching staff that should give the Royals a legitimate chance to make some noise.