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NFC championship game predictions: Who has the edge between Eagles, Commanders?

tyler dragon, usa today

Mon, 20 Jan 2025, 6:40 pm

The NFC championship game is a battle between two NFC East foes.

The Philadelphia Eagles are set to host the Washington Commanders on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field.

Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is running roughshod this postseason. He compiled a playoff-high 324 rushing yards and is averaging an impressive 6.4 yards a carry. Meanwhile, Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has shown uncanny poise and composure while leading Washington to its first NFC championship game berth in 33 years.

The Eagles and Commanders split the regular-season series. Who will win the rubber match? USA TODAY Sports breaks down each position group and analyzes who has the edge in the NFC title game.

NFC championship predictions

Who has a better quarterback? Commanders

This is a tough one. Jalen Hurts’ overall body of work is superior. He’s a two-time Pro Bowler and has a Super Bowl appearance on his resume. However, Daniels is arguably playing better than anyone at the positon remaining in the playoffs.

Daniels showed remarkable poise during Washington’s playoff run. He leads all quarterbacks in the playoffs in passing yards and his four touchdown passes are tied for a playoff-high. His accuracy, precision and ability to read defenses are well beyond his years as an NFL quarterback.

Who has the better running game? Eagles

Philadelphia’s offensive line has a 72% run block win rate, per ESPN. Saquon Barkley is the biggest beneficiary. Barkley is coming off 205 rushing yards in the divisional round, the fifth most rushing yards in a playoff game in NFL history.

Barkley, the front-runner for NFL Offensive Player of the Year, is the engine of the Eagles’ offense. The running back’s 2,329 total rushing yards (regular season and playoffs) are the third most rushing yards ever in a season.

Who has the better passing attack? Commanders

The Eagles have the most talented wide receiver corps, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown has had three straight 1,000-yard seasons. Tight end Dallas Goedert has a team-high 103 receiving yards in the postseason but the Eagles are a run-oriented team.

The Commanders have won two postseason games through the air. Washington receivers Dyami Brown and Terry McLaurin rank third and fourth, respectively, in postseason receiving yards. McLaurin is coming off his fifth straight 1,000-yard season. Plus, veteran tight end Zach Ertz is Daniels’ reliable security blanket.

Washington’s 283 passing yards per game ranks first among teams still alive in the postseason.

Who has the better offensive line? Eagles

Both offensive lines ranked in the top 10 in run block and pass block win rates during the regular season. Commanders starting right guard Sam Cosmi suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the divisional win. The loss of Cosmi is a big blow to Washington’s O-line.

The Eagles offensive line is healthy. They are entering the conference championship game as the unit that paved the way for Barkley’s 2,000-yard rushing season. They have led Philadelphia to average 227 rushing yards per game in the postseason.

No other play underscores the dominance of Philadelphia's offensive line more than the “tush push,” which the Eagles originated.

Who has the better defensive line? Eagles

Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter registered five tackles, two tackles for loss, two sacks and six pressures against the Rams last week. Ironically, the Rams game planned against Carter like he was Aaron Donald. He was double-teamed on 26 of his 49 pass rushes snaps, per Next Gen Stats.

Carter’s impact on a defensive line that features fellow former Georgia Bulldog Jordan Davis gives the Eagles the edge.

Who has better linebackers? Commanders

Eagles inside linebacker Zack Baun is a first-team All-Pro after a career-best 151 tackles. He never had a season of over 30 tackles before this year. Eagles outside linebacker Nolan Smith Jr.’s three sacks are tied for the second most in the playoffs.

However, the Commanders get the edge because of Bobby Wagner’s experience, IQ and leadership. Combined with Frankie Luvu’s playmaking ability, Washington’s two linebackers are always around the center of the action. They combined for 231 tackles during the regular season. Wagner’s produced at least 100 tackles for 13 straight seasons. Former Washington LB London Fletcher is the only other player to record 100-plus tackles in at least 13 straight seasons in NFL history.

Who has a better secondary? Eagles

Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell suffered what is believed to be a minor should injury in the divisional round. There’s optimism that he will play on Sunday. The Eagles had the No. 1 total defense in the NFL and a top-five pass defense during the regular season. Mitchell and Darius Slay both allowed below a 55% completion percentage when targeted this year. Meanwhile, Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (6) was tied for third in interceptions during the regular season.

Who has better special teams? Eagles

The Commanders have used four different kickers this year. Zane Gonzalez has connected on four of five of his field goals in the postseason. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott is a perfect six of six in the playoffs. Elliott made all three of his field goals in inclement weather last Sunday. Eagles punter Braden Mann ranked in the top 10 in net punt average. Philadelphia has the best special teams unit.