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NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 17 Christmas Day

The NFL kicks off earlier in Week 17 than any other week of the season, with two games Wednesday on Christmas Day. Yahoo is running NFL DFS contests for Wednesday's two-game slate, which consists of Kansas City-Pittsburgh at 1 p.m. EST and Baltimore-Houston at 4 p.m.

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Christmas lineup options include a QB-WR stack facing a secondary that has been in a giving mood for most of the season, a star RB, and plenty of additional speed at WR.

QUARTERBACK

C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. BAL ($25): Your bargain shopping doesn't have to be limited to holiday presents for family and friends, as you can also pick up bargains in the NFL DFS arena, starting with Stroud. The most affordable of Wednesday's four starting QBs offers nice value considering the Ravens have allowed the second-most passing yards and the fewest rushing yards in the NFL, so Houston will likely have no choice  but to air it out early and often, even without No. 2 WR Tank Dell (knee). Stroud has grown used to playing with a depleted WR room this season, and he has still managed to toss multiple TDs in three of his last four outings. Baltimore's defense has turned a corner, limiting five consecutive opponents to 218 or fewer passing yards, but Stroud certainly has the skills to break that trend, especially at home. In his career, Stroud has thrown 27 touchdown passes in 15 home games compared to 15 TDs in 15 road games.

Honorable Mentions:

Lamar Jackson, BAL at HOU ($40); Patrick Mahomes, KC at PIT ($30)

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry, BAL at HOU ($35): Henry has proven to be matchup-proof over the years, and especially now that he's running behind a stout Baltimore offensive line and taking handoffs from Lamar Jackson, whose rushing ability serves as a decoy every time Henry gets the rock. With 1,636 rushing yards, Henry's closer to league leader Saquon Barkley (1,838) than he is to third-place Kyren Williams (1,243), and Henry needs just one rushing score to pull into a tie for the league lead currently shared by James Cook and the concussed Jalen Hurts (14). The star RB won't sweat facing a Houston defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards to his position.

Kareem Hunt, KC at PIT ($18): Process of elimination leaves Kansas City's backfield as the best spot to source your second RB, as the AFC West winners and the Ravens are the only two teams in the NFL that have allowed fewer than 1,000 rushing yards to RBs, limiting the appeal of Houston's and Pittsburgh's RBs. Hunt's the better value in KC's backfield timeshare, as Isiah Pacheco hasn't looked right in four games since returning from a fractured fibula, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and failing to score a TD. Over the past two games, Hunt has rushed 24 times for 100 yards and a TD while Pacheco has just 22 carries for 58 yards. Pittsburgh's 86.9 rushing yards per game allowed to RBs are the most among teams in action Wednesday.

Honorable Mentions:

Joe Mixon, HOU vs. BAL ($33); Isiah Pacheco, KC at PIT ($22)

WIDE RECEIVER

Nico Collins, HOU vs. BAL ($33): Collins is a strong choice whether or not you stack him with Stroud. The star wideout's target share is likely to grow even larger in Dell's absence, with Houston down to the likes of John Metchie and Robert Woods as fill-in starters, at least until the newly acquired Diontae Johnson gets up to speed. Collins' 90.9 receiving yards per game are third most in the NFL, trailing only Ja'Marr Chase (100.7) and Justin Jefferson (92.5). Baltimore has given up the fourth-most yards to WRs (2,579) and is tied for the sixth-most TDs allowed to the position (17).

Zay Flowers, BAL at HOU ($26): Flowers has some injury risk since he was a listed as a non-participant in practice both Monday and Tuesday, but assuming he plays his usual allotment of snaps, the speedster's likely to burn a Texans secondary that's tied for the most receiving TDs allowed to WRs with 20. Houston couldn't handle Xavier Worthy's speed Saturday, and Flowers is a much more refined route runner. If Flowers can't go, the appeal of Rashod Bateman ($22) would grow.

Xavier Worthy, KC at PIT ($22): Speaking of Worthy, the rookie first-round pick is really coming on down the stretch. He set a career high with 11 targets in Week 15 and immediately tied that mark in Week 16, registering at least 75 scrimmage yards and a TD in both games. Worthy has topped 40 receiving yards in six consecutive games after doing so just once through his first nine NFL appearances, and having both DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown alongside Worthy at wide receiver seems to be beneficial, as the veteran wideouts draw the attention of the defense. One hesitation or bad angle is all it takes to be left in the dust by Worthy, who set an NFL Draft Combine record by running the 40-yard dash in 4.21 seconds.

Honorable Mentions:

George Pickens, PIT vs. KC ($28); Hollywood Brown, KC at PIT ($18); John Metchie, HOU vs. BAL ($10)

TIGHT END

Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. KC ($16): In a slate with two of the biggest names in the game at TE, Freiermuth looks like the prudent play at the position against a Kansas City defense that's giving up a league-high 72.7 yards per game to the position. Russell Wilson's trusted security blanket just had a three-game touchdown streak snapped, so Freiermuth's also a key factor in the red zone. Kansas City has allowed the fewest yards to RBs and seventh fewest to WRs, so Pittsburgh's offense will likely follow the familiar pattern against this defense of funneling the ball to the TE with the other options consistently well defended.

Honorable Mentions:

Mark Andrews, BAL at HOU ($21); Dalton Schultz, HOU vs. BAL ($15)

DEFENSE

Baltimore Ravens at HOU ($12): Baltimore's affordable D/ST unit is well positioned for success against the banged-up Texans offense. Houston's 17 giveaways this season are at least three more than each of the other teams in action Wednesday, and Baltimore's defense knows how to get to the QB, as the Ravens (47) trail only the Broncos (51) in sacks. The Ravens have registered multiple sacks in every game this season and at least three sacks in all but three games. This unit is coming off a season-best 14-fantasy point performance against the Steelers, powered by a pick-six.

Honorable Mentions:

Kansas City at PIT ($15); Pittsburgh Steelers vs. KC ($15)