Team that will be most missed in the playoffs

Seattle Seahawks are not a good football team. But they are an entertaining one. They’re capable of scoring in chunks, even with a woeful offensive line. Their defense cannot tackle anyone, but they’re also liable to snag a couple of crucial turnovers in a half. Scan their record and they have (kind of) impressive wins against playoff opposition. They’d likely have been one-and-done – the team just had too many holes – but they have the kind of playoff formula (volatile offense; turnover-enforcing defense) that could have caused an upset. OC

New Orleans Saints. The watered-down playoff format means it’s unlikely that any team who didn’t make the cut would have been capable of making a meaningful splash. So let’s go with the Saints led by the chaotic Jameis Winston, still the NFL’s most unserious player and probably the best bad quarterback ever. BAG

Atlanta Falcons. Well, at least here in Atlanta, where spirits ran high when the home team was actually leading the NFC South (against all logic). It’s a shame we won’t get to see Arthur Smith blow a gasket again, this time about beat reporters’ Jameis Winston-style sneak attempts to know which QB he’ll be starting from round to round. AL

Cincinnati Bengals. Their season looked like it was done when Joe Burrow went down injured (again) in November but a surprisingly zingy undrafted Jake Browning kept them competitive. Some have wondered if Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can make any quarterback you choose to mention competitive in the playoffs. It would have been fun to find out. TL

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High-seeded team at risk of going out early

Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys should not lose to the Green Bay Packers. Repeat: the Cowboys should not lose at home to the Green Bay Packers. But, well, these are the Cowboys. And it’s Mike McCarthy in a playoff setting. We’ve seen this too often before. The Packers are cresting at the right time. Jordan Love is a bonafide superstar. It’s as strong a schematic matchup as Dallas could have hoped for; they should pulverize Joe Barry’s hapless defense. But Green Bay can score in clusters. And if the Dallas sideline starts getting fidgety, if they look out of sorts, playoff games have a way of revealing the worst about a McCarthy team, even if this has been his best coaching job in years. OC

Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott and co have a formidable record at home, but they’ve run it up on weak opposition. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s Jordan Love is arguably the NFL’s hottest quarterback over the past month with nine touchdowns against zero interceptions, while Aaron Jones has overcome an early-season bug to rush for more than 110 yards in each of the past three games. BAG

Buffalo Bills. Pittsburgh have the league’s third-highest turnover differential (+11). Josh Allen threw the second-highest number of picks (18). Don’t be surprised if the math keeps mathin’. AL

Detroit Lions. Detroit are, of course, not the Lions of a few years ago and they should beat the Los Angeles Rams. But Dan Campbell’s decision to play Sam LaPorta in a meaningless final game of the season could come back to haunt him. The star tight end is a doubt after injuring his knee in Sunday’s win over the Minnesota Vikings and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has been excellent this season, could be inspired by a return to the city he called home for most of his career. TL

Long shot to win

Do the Detroit Lions classify as a long shot? Are there any real long shots? The field is as open as at any point in recent memory. The Bills were in danger of missing the postseason heading into Week 18 and wound up with the second seed in the AFC. The only juggernauts in either conference are the Ravens and Niners. Still: the Lions feel like they’re a year or two away from being a complete team. Yet there’s a consistency to them that’s lacking from other contenders. They have a feisty – if undermanned – defense capable of generating takeaways. If Jared Goff can play clean, they have the talent to reach the NFC title game. And from there, who knows? OC

Cleveland Browns. Led by one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses and a 38-year-old father of five at quarterback (with a 10-5 career playoff record), the Browns are in the postseason for only the second time in 21 years having scored regular-season wins over trendy Super Bowl picks Baltimore and San Francisco. BAG

Cleveland Browns. AL

Not only do the Browns have one of the best defenses in the league – although it’s tailed off a little in recent week – this is also the last time you can root for them before Deshaun Watson returns and makes them the most toxic team in the NFL again. TL

Most important player this postseason

Josh Allen, quarterback, Buffalo Bills. It’s worth reflecting on the fact that Buffalo’s building was melting down a month after Sean McDermott’s kooky motivation tactics were revealed. A few weeks on, despite playing some rickety football, the Bills look like the best shot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl outside of Baltimore. It will come down to Allen. Great quarterbacks can cover up fissures elsewhere on a roster. McDermott has been coaching out of his mind on the defensive side of the ball for two straight months. On offense, things are still up and down, depending on how Allen feels on any given day. If Allen is at his MVP best, playing within himself for stretches and saving the Superman routine for when the team needs it most, Buffalo will be as dangerous as anyone in the league’s most competitive conference. OC

Lamar Jackson, quarterback, Baltimore Ravens. The 27-year-old will be a two-time Most Valuable Player after his latest regular-season masterpiece, which effectively punches his Hall of Fame ticket. But his middling playoff record of one win from four games will remain a talking point until Jackson changes the conversation. It’s unlikely he’ll ever have a better chance than right here and right now. BAG

Brock Purdy, quarterback, San Francisco 49ers. There’s no question now that he’s the straw that stirs the drink – and that the Niners’ title hopes were doomed from the moment he was knocked out of last year’s NFC championship game. There’s no reason why San Fran shouldn’t sail through to the Super Bowl with him at the tiller this time around. AL

Lamar Jackson, quarterback, Baltimore Ravens. The presumptive MVP has brilliant weapons around him and a terrifying defense to maintain any lead the Ravens build. If he plays anywhere near his best, the Ravens should coast to the Super Bowl and stop any grumbles about Jackson not showing up in the playoffs. TL

AFC championship game

Ravens over Bills. OC

Ravens over Chiefs. BAG

Ravens over Chiefs. AL

Browns over Ravens. TL

NFC championship game

49ers over Lions. OC

49ers over Lions. BAG

49ers over Lions. AL

Cowboys over 49ers. TL

Your Super Bowl champion will be …

Ravens over 49ers. If you could design a team in a lab tailor-made for this moment in the evolution of the sport, it would be the Ravens. They have crafted the most creative and impactful defense in the NFL. On offense, they continue to solve any riddle thrown their way. Their offensive structure is impeccable. When forced to play out of structure, Jackson has rained fire on any fool willing to light him up with pressure. The only question with the Ravens throughout the season has been whether they would be healthy by the time the playoffs rolled around. That remains a concern, but they’re healthy enough to still be at their best. The Niners are formidable. But this should be Baltimore’s year. OC

49ers over Ravens. A Super Bowl rematch 11 years in the making, only with no Colin Kaepernick, no Beyoncé and (let’s hope) no power outage in the stadium interrupting play for 34 minutes. This time San Francisco come out on top behind a balanced offensive attack tricked out with skill-position stars (McCaffrey! Kittle! Deebo! Aiyuk!) that has managed to overshadow the voracious defense that’s hogged the headlines throughout their five-year run of success. BAG

Ravens over 49ers. It’s the Harbaugh brothers’ year and Jackson’s too. In an MVP performance, he makes all the teams who had a shot to pick him up in free agency look foolish for passing on him. Jackson will dust off the “not quarterbacky” label like Steve Young – his loudest supporter – shrugging the monkey off his back in 1995. AL

Cowboys over Browns. The 49ers and Ravens are clearly the best teams in the NFL, but the two best teams don’t usually both reach the Super Bowl in any given year. So let’s say the Browns ride a Joe Flacco hot streak and a few monster performances from Myles Garrett to Las Vegas, where they’re beaten by Dak Prescott showing up and Mike McCarthy coaching properly in the playoffs. TL