NFL Week 11 preview: Vikings can buck the trend at Chicago

Week 11 of the NFL season sees some fascinating match-ups, including the big Monday night clash between two teams with 9-1 records, as the Los Angeles Rams entertain the Kansas City Chiefs.

We look at all the games, offering quick hits, top trends and all the odds from our friends at GentingBet.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens may give Lamar Jackson his first NFL start at quarterback, as Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury.

It seems that head coach John Harbaugh appears to be enjoying the fact that there is plenty of speculation, although with Flacco missing practice all week, the chances are he won’t suit up.

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“There will be a quarterback starting. I can guarantee that,” Harbaugh said. “And, every play, there will be at least one quarterback on the field.”

The uncertainty means this game is currently off the board, although we can expect the Ravens to be around three-point favourites once the QB situation is confirmed.

The Bengals have one of the worst defences in their history. They have conceded 454.6 yards per game after giving up 509 yards to the New Orleans Saints last week, and after they fired their defensive coordinator on Monday, they hired former Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson, who went 3-36-1 in three seasons with the Browns.

Cincinnati (5-4) won three of their last four trips to AFC North rivals Baltimore (4-5), who could see a head coaching change of their own before too long, especially if they lose this one.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Having won on the road at Philadelphia last week, the Cowboys (4-5) face a pivotal conference clash with the Falcons (4-5), as they seek to win back-to-back games for the first time this season.

The Dallas offense has been struggling and QB Dak Prescott has been sacked 32 times already, on a par with Giants’ Eli Manning.

But they might get some joy on the ground. Last season, when the Falcons beat the Cowboys 27-7, RB Ezekiel Elliott was missing (suspended), but last week the Falcons gave up 211 rushing yards in defeat at Cleveland, and they also allowed over 200 yards to Carolina the week before.

Much of their recent defensive issues have been caused by the absence of injured third-year middle linebacker Deion Jones.

However, he is back off the Injured Reserve list and could well play against the Cowboys, providing a welcome tonic for the Falcons, who opened as 4.5 points favourites and are now 3.5-point favourites, following support for the Cowboys.

It is worth noting, perhaps, that the Cowboys have never lost three consecutive trips to Atlanta.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERRS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Tampa has lost six of the last seven games since making a 2-0 start, while the Giants won their second game of the season at San Francisco on Monday night.

We are not sure why Giants’ head coach Pat Shurmur’s offense is based predominately a possession passing game, when it seems clear that they are better when allowing Eli Manning to be more aggressive.

It helped that new right guard Jamon Brown fitted in well on a flimsy offensive line and Manning appeared to feel more comfortable in the pocket against the 49ers. The line still has issues being able to run block for Saquon Barkley and so they must get him involved in the passing game beyond the line of scrimmage.

Tampa Bay, winners of one of the last six meetings, lost their last four on the road and give up an average of 32.3 points per game and 400 yards.

They face a team looking to win back-to-back home games for the first time since December 2016, but the Bucs had no trouble moving the ball against Washington last week. It was their inability to finish drives that cost them.

The Giants are marginal favourites and are 13/10 to successfully concede 3.5 points on the handicap.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville host a Pittsburgh team thirsting to avenge last season’s regular season and play-off defeats. The Jaguars possess a five-game losing streak and their playoff hopes appeared to die in defeat at Indianapolis last Sunday.

Defensive breakdowns have proved costly, and while the running game received a boost with Leonard Fournette returning from injury, it is arguable that their defense will be able to stem the Steelers’ offense that put 51 points on Carolina last week.

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 2,888 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while RB James Conner has rushed for 771 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. It does not appear that they are missing a beat without contract rebel Le-Veon Bell.

It is perhaps worth noting the road team has covered the handicap in the last five meetings.

The Steelers (6-2-1) have won four of their last five trips to Jacksonville and are 4.5-point favourites.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Both these teams are division leaders and neither look Super Bowl contenders. The Texans have won six straight, are coming off a bye and needed the rest for QB Deshaun Watson and the rest of the beaten-up players.

The Redskins’ defense conceded over 500 yards (including 400 passing yards to journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick) but earned a four-turnover day in getting past Tampa last week.

They were somewhat passive in coverage, which can be addressed by coaching, and while the offense still has plenty of work to do, they are often failing to execute. The consistency is not yet there.

However, they are not far from putting together a complete game and they know that even if they go 3-4 the rest of the way, Philadelphia and Dallas will still have to go 5-2 to have a chance of taking the NFC East title.

The Redskins are surprising 1.5-point underdogs.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts (4-5) have won three in a row to get back into contention in the AFC South and the outcome of this clash could go a long way to seeing who will be in post-season action and who will be sitting at home in January.

The Titans (5-4) stunned the Patriots at home last week, while the Colts held on for a narrow win at home to the Jaguars. Titans won both meetings last season, but the Colts took the previous 11 meetings.

Tennessee’s 16.8 points allowed per game is the best in the NFL, while Colts’ QB Andrew Luck will hope to test them, as he has tossed at least three touchdowns in each of his last six starts.

Tennessee’s pass defense is allowing just 228 yards per game on average, thanks to its marauding front seven, led by Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and rookies Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry.

Last week, they held Tom Brady and the Patriots’ passing game to zero touchdowns and a completion percentage just better than 50 per cent, also sacking Brady three times.

The Colts need to do a good job of running the ball, which they did not manage to do last week, yet they are considered 3.5-point handicap favourites.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DETROIT LIONS

Carolina’s three-game winning streak was ended as they had their tails handed to them by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 52-21 rout last week.

They got away from their running game, which had previously been so effective. The Panthers (6-3) boast the 3rd-ranked rushing attack with 138.4 yards per game, in addition to scoring an average 26.8 points per game this season.

The Lions (3-6) are in need of a win, having dropped a third straight game, with a 34-22 defeat at Chicago.

Having stewed for a few extra days following their Thursday night loss, the Panthers will be fired up for this, against a team who may have mailed it in for the season. This is Last Chance Saloon territory for the Lions, who have lost their last three against the Seahawks, Vikings and Bears by at least two scores.

In their last 13 games against a team with a winning record, Detroit has failed to cover the handicap on 10 occasions. In contrast, Carolina is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.

Carolina are 17/20 to successfully concede 3.5 points to the Lions.

DENVER BRONCOS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Denver (3-6) and the Los Angeles Chargers (7-2) are heading in opposite directions. Following their bye week, the Broncos are in turmoil following six defeats in their last seven, and three of their last four road games.

The Chargers will look to build on their six-game winning streak against a team that has failed to cover the handicap on six of their last seven games against AFC West opponents, and who have covered the spread in just three of their last 14 road games.

The Broncos have not lost three consecutive trips to the Chargers since 2006-2008, but they are considered 14/5 underdogs.

Vance Joseph’s job may be on the line, but in fairness, the Broncos have lost four of their six by seven points or less, and four of the last five meetings have been decided by eight points or less.

However, the Broncos have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last eight games and that was before WR Demaryius Thomas departed for Houston.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The only one-win team left in the NFL faces two-win Arizona. Those two victories came against San Francisco, who shredded the Raiders two weeks ago. This game is meaningful for one reason only – to see who will pick nearest the top of the draft next April.

Raiders saw injuries to Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant last week in a loss to the Chargers, making an already thin receiving corps thinner.

Raiders, who have won three of their last four trips to the desert, could see this as their last chance to win a game this year, as they have a stiff run-in against Baltimore, Kansas City (twice), Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Denver.

The Cardinals did not play badly against the Chiefs in a 26-14 loss, sacking QB Patrick Mahomes five times, and running back David Johnson was given plenty of touches by offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, ending with 98 yards from 21 carries and 85 yards on seven catches.

Cardinals are 4/9 favourites to win and 17/20 to successfully concede 4.5 points to the Raiders.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Eagles (4-5) rode the underdog tag last season all the way to the Super Bowl but they have not fared well as favourites this term. They will be dogs for the first time this season when they visit the New Orleans Saints (8-1), who have looked the best team in the NFL at times.

Last week, the Eagles fell at home to the Dallas Cowboys, as they have invariably done of late, while the Saints rolled to an eighth consecutive win, dismantling Cincinnati, and are 7.5-point favourites.

Drew Brees has led the offense to 40 or more points five times in the first nine games and only the 2013 Broncos and 2000 Rams had ever done that.

Eagles have also lost cornerback Ron Darby for the season, so this might be another long day for the Philly defense with Chandon Sullivan and Rasul Douglas manning the CB positions. The Eagles’ secondary is a mess, and last week their once-reliable run defense was shredded by Ezekiel Elliott.

The Saints can stop the run and get pressure on Carson Wentz, who does not appear to have a deep threat to get behind the Saints’ secondary.

Saints are 21/20 to successfully concede 10.5 points on the handicap.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Are we still in denial about the Chicago Bears? Their 6-3 record says they are a good football team. Yet they have been beating some average teams, and had they not lost two squeakers to similarly average Miami and Green Bay, they could be 8-1.

Bears overcame the Detroit Lions 34-22 at home last week, but one wonders if they can become too pass-heavy with Mitch Trubisky, particularly when they have capable backs.

The Vikings’ pass rush will get pressure on the second-year QB and they have the ability to vary their game a little more with Dalvin Cook coming out of the backfield. Chicago may have their defensive hands full trying to keep Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen quiet.

That said, the Vikings (5-3-1) have a poor recent record at Soldier Field, winning just three of their last 17 trips and have not won back-to-back visits since 1999-2000.

That is probably the reason why the Bears are considered 8/11 favourites and are 17/20 to successfully concede 2.5 points on the handicap.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

This game, which was scheduled to be played in Mexico City, has now been moved back to the LA Coliseum because of the state of the pitch at the Azteca Stadium.

It gives the Rams (9-1) a true home-field advantage in what could be an epic Monday Night Football clash. Layers are expecting a points-fest, for the unders/overs line is set at an historic 63.3 points – one of only three games this century to be set with a line over 60 points.

The Chiefs (9-1) are second in the NFL in scoring at 35.3 points per game, with the Rams right behind them at 33.5 points per game. Rams rank second in yards gained, averaging 448 per week, with the Chiefs third in the NFL at 423.1 yards per game, so you can see the layers’ thinking.

Both teams have looked vulnerable defensively, with the Rams conceding 23.1 points per game and the Chiefs giving up 24ppg.

Rams beat the Seahawks 36-31 on Sunday, with running back Todd Gurley scoring a touchdown for the 13th straight game. Gurley leads the NFL in rushing (988 yards), rushing attempts (198), rushing yards per game (98.8) and yards from scrimmage (1,390).

There is added interest with the Chiefs having traded cornerback Marcus Peters to the Rams in the summer. He was widely considered to be one of the best defensive players, but he has been burned often since joining the Rams, and ranks 108th among the 117 corners who had played at least 20 per cent of their snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

Rams must do without receiver Cooper Kupp for the remainder of the year. The receiver blew out his knee last week and he was one of QB Jared Goff’s favourite targets. There is now a tremendous amount of pressure on Josh Reynolds – who has seven catches for 98 yards and two TDs – to at least be a viable foil for Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.

That will help the Chiefs’ defense, who looked all over the place early on, but this unit has quietly got better. It has allowed just five pass plays of 25 or more yards in the last four games after giving up 19 in its first six.

The Rams are 4/7 favourites to win, with the Chiefs at 7/5. The Rams are considered 4.5-point favourites at odds of 11/10 on the handicap.