NFL Wild Cards preview - Chicago Bears can end Eagles run

The Regular season is in the rear-view mirror with plenty of broken dreams shattered on the roadside. For those 12 teams who remain, the road to Atlanta and Super Bowl LIII has only just begun.

This weekend, four of those teams will advance, while four will be eliminated. Yes, it is the Wild Card round – and we take a look at the four games, offering trends, analysis and odds, which are supplied by our friends at GentingBet.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Indianapolis Colts (10-6) and Houston Texans (11-5) know each other well, playing in the AFC South division. Each had a victory over the other this season, with the Texans picking up their first win of the season with a 37-34 overtime success in Week 4, while the Colts snapped Houston’s nine-game winning streak with a 24-21 win in their Week 14 clash.

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Both teams have been on fairy-tale runs. The Texans stared 0-3, while the Colts’ story has been even more remarkable under Frank Reich. Nearly 11 months after accepting the job Josh McDaniels spurned, Indianapolis’ backup choice as head coach led the Colts to their first playoff berth since 2014 following a 1-5 start to the campaign. It is only the third time an NFL team has rebounded from such an abysmal start to make the postseason.

Former quarterback Reich is used to comebacks. In November 1984, he replaced Stan Gelbaugh after Maryland fell into a 31-0 halftime deficit at Miami and wound up throwing six second-half touchdown passes to give the Terrapins a 42-40 victory – at the time, the largest comeback in College Football Division I history.

Then in January 1993, Reich replaced the injured Jim Kelly in Buffalo’s Wild Card game and rallied the two-time defending AFC champs from a 35-3 deficit to beat the Houston Oilers 41-38 in overtime for the largest comeback in NFL history.

The backs-to-the-wall mentality has served his Colts team well this term, as they have won nine of the past 10 games and have been in play-off mode for a while now.

The rivalry between Indianapolis and Houston has been pretty even in the past few seasons, with each team winning four times over the other in the last eight contests. The Texans are 3/4 to win, with the Colts currently trading at Evens.

Colts have enjoyed a good record at Houston in recent times, though, winning five of their last six trips to NRG Stadium, the sole loss in that span coming by three points in 2016. Indeed, they have won 12 of the last 17 meetings in Houston overall.

Houston have had trouble defending quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been sacked a league-high 62 times – six times more than the next-worst mark set by Dallas – and only one sack shy of Jon Kitna’s 63 with the Detroit Lions in 2006.

In contrast, the Colts have protected QB Andrew Luck well. Likely to be named the League’s Comeback Player of the Year, Luck has been sacked a mere 18 sacks in 16 games. Luck has tossed 39 touchdowns this season, one short of his career best. Not bad considering he had undergone multiple shoulder surgeries which had kept him sidelined for the best part of two seasons.

Watson has also improved as the season has unfolded, particularly with ball security. He was intercepted seven times in his first six games, but was picked off just twice in his last 10 games.

Luck has owned the Texans this season. He set a career-high with 464 passing yards in their Week 4 clash and then had the fourth-most of his career in the Colts’ 24-21 victory on December 9.

While Luck has also been spectacular, Watson has also been the heartbeat of the Houston attack. The 23-year-old only played in seven games last season after tearing his ACL, forcing him to miss the rest of the season.
He not only fully recovered in time for the 2018 season, but also became the first player in NFL history to throw for over 4,000 yards with 25 touchdowns, and also rushed for 500 yards and five touchdowns.

Houston will hope they can pressure Luck and in order to do this, J.J. Watt will be a big part of the game-plan. Watt was nothing short of spectacular in 2018, following an injury-addled 2017. He notched an AFC-high 16 sacks and an NFL-high seven forced fumbles in his first full season since 2015.

If the Colts win, they head to AFC No.1 seed Kansas City, while Houston would travel to New England should they defeat Indianapolis.

The Texans are considered 1.5-point favourites on the handicap at odds of 17/20 according to GentingBet. The points total is set at 48.5 and it is 17/20 to go over or under that mark.

Both the Colts and Texans are rated as 25/1 shots to win the Super Bowl. For more odds on this clash, click here.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

The second Wild Card game, which takes place in the early hours of Sunday morning UK time, pits the NFC West runner-up Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at the Dallas Cowboys (10-6). Both teams met in Week 3 with the Seahawks winning 24-13.

We perhaps cannot draw too many comparisons to that clash, since Dallas looked a different team then. They did not have Amari Cooper at receiver or Leighton Vander Esch hunting down quarterbacks. The Seahawks also had the impactful Earl Thomas in their line-up, but the safety is ruled out with a fractured leg and second-year man Tedric Thompson will deputise.

It is almost 12 years to the day that Dallas last lost in the Wild Card round and they face the team that beat them on that occasion. Since then, Dallas has won two of their five home games with the Seahawks, who bid to win in Dallas for an unprecedented third consecutive occasion. Dallas and Seattle effectively played a playoff game in back in Week 16 of 2017. It was a win or go home situation for both teams, and Dallas lost. So the Cowboys may have pent-up frustration as well as some nervousness to overcome.

There is no doubt that in nine games, Cooper, with 53 catches for 721 yards and six touchdowns since arriving in a trade with the Oakland Raiders for this year’s first-round Draft pick, has given the Cowboys the spark they needed. In the first meeting, Dallas managed just 168 yards passing and their top receiver was Cole Beasley, who snared three passes for a total of 48 yards.

QB Dak Prescott has only had two games in his career where he has thrown for over 350 yards and both of them have occurred with Cooper on the team, including when passing for 387 yards in last Sunday’s meaningless one-point win over the New York Giants.

Going into the season, we knew the Cowboys’ receiving unit was a weak one, especially after tight end Jason Witten decided to call it a career. Yet they have an emerging star to replace him in Blake Jarwin, who caught seven passes for 119 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants last week. Still, the Cowboys will likley rely upon running back Ezekiel Elliot, who rushed for 127 yards in the first meeting – particularly since the Seahawks’ run defense has not been particularly stout since.

However, their own rushing attack is the best in the NFL, averaging 158 yards per game, so Dallas will have to produce the sort of run-stuffing show they put on in that Week 3 clash, when limiting the Seahawks to less than three yards per carry.

The Cowboys are considered 5/6 favourites to win on the Moneyline, with the Seahawks at 19/20. The visitors can be backed at 17/20 in receipt of 1.5 points on the GentingBet NFL handicap. The points total is set at 45.0 points. For more odds on the clash, click here.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

The first of Sunday evening’s Wild Card clashes sees AFC West runner-up Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) traveling to the AFC North champion Baltimore Ravens (10-6). The Ravens went to Los Angeles and upset the Chargers 22-10 three days before Christmas, when the Chargers had already locked up a playoff spot, having won 10 of their previous 11 games.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson had a breakout night against the Chargers. Jackson, the 32nd overall draft pick in April, completed 12 of 22 passes for 204 yards. He had come into the game averaging 146.2 yards in the previous five games. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers – who went 23 of 37 for 181 yards – was sacked four times, threw two interceptions and didn’t have a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The 198 net yards by the Chargers’ offense was their fourth-lowest total since Rivers became the starting quarterback in 2006.

The Ravens needed to beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday to make the postseason and they scraped by 26-24 to claim the AFC North title, eliminating the Pittsburgh Steelers. Head coach John Harbaugh has a 10-5 playoff record and has never lost in the opening round of the postseason. This will be the first home playoff game the Ravens have played since their Super Bowl run in 2012. That season also saw the Ravens with the fourth seed in the AFC and a division championship. It is the first time the Ravens have made the playoffs since 2014.

The Chargers are 8-0 on the road this season, including winning at hostile environments earlier in the season at Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Seattle. They also won in London, beating the Tennessee Titans.

The Chargers are hopeful that two offensive playmakers who were not in the line-up when the teams met first time around, will be available. Running back Melvin Gordon has been carrying a knee injury and while he exited from the Chargers win at Denver on Sunday, he is likely to play. We may also see tight end Hunter Henry’s first outing of the season, having recovered from May’s non-contact ACL tear.

It is never easy to travel from the West Coast to the east and play in an early time-slot, and the Chargers have lost three of their last four visits to Baltimore, but the last three meetings in Baltimore have been settled by a combined seven points.

Ravens are considered 2.5-point favourites at odds of 4/5, while the Chargers can be backed at 23/20 to come away with the win. The points total line is set at 41.0. For more great odds and alternative handicaps on this clash, click here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Last season’s Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) sneaked into the playoffs by rattling off three straight wins, two over fellow playoff teams, and now travel to the NFC North champion Chicago Bears (12-4).

The Bears have won four straight games, including back-to-back road wins, the last coming at Minnesota, who needed a win to make the playoffs. They have also won nine of their last 10, with a dominating defense riding what has been something of a soft schedule, winning just four games against teams who boast records above .500 – LA Rams, Minnesota (twice) and Seattle. They also lost to three teams with losing records – NY Giants, Miami and Green Bay.

Philadelphia, who racked up two quality wins in their last three with wins against the Rams and Texans before blanking Washington 24-0 last weekend, will start Nick Foles at quarterback. Foles, who deputised for Carson Wentz in the playoffs last year, has led the Eagles to three straight wins since replacing Wentz, who has a stress fracture in his back. He finished 28-for-33 for 221 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Redskins and completed 25 consecutive passes.

For a team that hasn’t reached the postseason since 2010, the Bears have carried themselves like a perennial playoff team under first-year head coach Matt Nagy, but history may be against them, as Philadelphia have won six of the last eight meetings in Chicago.

The Eagles’ secondary has been massively hit by injuries and ranked last against the pass before holding Washington’s Josh Johnson to 91 yards in the finale. Yet Bears rookie WR Anthony Miller left Sunday’s game against Minnesota with a shoulder injury that may keep him out. Chicago’s top receiver, Allen Robinson (ribs), missed the contest entirely. But the Bears’ primary concern could be safety Eddie Jackson, who has been inactive the past two weeks with an ankle injury.

Yet it is their swarming defense that has carried the Bears to the NFC North title this season. It is the first since 2006 to record both 50 sacks and 25 interceptions. Linebacker Khalil Mack has been a revelation since being traded from Oakland, but Jackson and Akiem Hicks are also important cogs in a well-oiled machine.

The Bears are 17/20 shots to successfully concede 5.5 points on the handicap, while the Eagles can be supported at 15/8 to win in Chicago. They are also 4/7 to keep within an 8.5-point handicap. For more odds on this clash, click here.

Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.

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