Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (Saturday 4.30pm EST/9.30pm GMT)

What the Chargers need to do to win: The league’s stingiest defense cannot afford the complacency that allowed Tampa Bay to rain 40 points down on them in December. The Chargers’ stats look good – they gave up the fewest touchdowns (31) in the regular season, including 18 on 39 red-zone drives, a league-leading efficiency mark of 46% – but would be even better without a few aberrations. Handily, the away day will not faze them considering their 6-3 record on the road this season. LA should take care of an underpowered Houston offense if they can forget about their wildcard shocker against Jacksonville two years ago.

Related: NFL playoff predictions: will anyone thwart the Chiefs’ three-peat bid?

What the Texans need to do to win: To combat the oddity of the Texans being underdogs in their own building, Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik needs to fire CJ Stroud up. The quarterback has looked like a beaten man at times this season, suffering behind a weak offensive line and a receiving group missing key players. If Slowik calls some quick-release plays to march the Texans in for an early score then Houston may start feeling lucky.

Key player: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The rookie has taken over LA’s offensive production. McConkey’s key assets are his versatility and route running. He can line up in or outside the slot and has befuddled opposing defenses with his ability to catch in traffic. Think Detroit’s Amon-Ra St Brown only hitting the ground faster.

Prediction: Chargers over Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 8pm EST/Sunday 1am GMT)

What the Steelers need to do to win: Pittsburgh need a miracle. To have even the slightest hope of succeeding, Mike Tomlin needs to have a long chat with George Pickens about his role in the offense. The wide receiver, arguably a top-10 player at his position, made one catch for zero yards from six targets while clearly struggling with his emotions in last week’s defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals. The plan will still be for Russell Wilson to get the ball to Pickens on the outside, so Tomlin has to find a way for the receiver to put aside his issues for this Herculean task. His eight catches for 89 yards made sure Pittsburgh’s brilliant defensive work wasn’t wasted when the Steelers beat the Ravens in November.

What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore will be confident despite the Steelers winning eight of the teams’ past 10 meetings. The Ravens’ 34-17 destruction of the Steelers in December should be a good enough blueprint to help settle any lingering playoff nerves from Lamar Jackson. An offensive scheme that takes the pressure off the quarterback’s scratchy 2-4 postseason record should work: stick the ball in Derrick Henry’s gut and make the Steelers tap out. Henry’s 24 carries produced 162 yards in the December game.

Key player: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. Any Debbie Downers have been silenced as Jackson became the first player to throw for more than 4,000 yards and rush for more than 800 in an NFL season. Oh, and he did so while tossing a career-high 41 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Electric.

Prediction: Ravens over Steelers

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1pm EST/6pm GMT)

What the Broncos need to do to win: Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has to slow down Buffalo’s jumbo package. The Bills’ secret sauce this year has been the running game or play-action trickery behind an elite, extra lineman in Alec Anderson. Denver are likely to see a lot off the super sub as Buffalo tend to run their jumbo heavily against nickel defenses, the formation Joseph usually employs. Stacking the box when faced by six big men with corners Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss on red alert for a deep pass may just keep the Broncos in the fight.

What the Bills need to do to win: To keep the Broncos from mounting a serious challenge Buffalo have to pressure Bo Nix. When harassed, Denver’s rookie quarterback threw for 4.2 yards per attempt with a 45.1% completion rate and five touchdowns with five interceptions. Fortunately Buffalo have not one but two of the NFL’s finest defensive tackles in Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones to disrupt Nix’s playoff debut.

Key player: Dion Dawkins, LT, Bills. The veteran of Buffalo’s offensive line is the epitome of consistency. After giving up only three sacks this season – a down year when compared to last season’s one – in 959 snaps, he joins the Pro Bowl lineup for the fourth year in succession. The 30-year-old’s pass blocking expertise will give Josh Allen the time to pick Denver’s strong secondary apart.

Prediction: Bills over Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 4.30pm EST/9.30pm GMT)

What the Packers need to do to win: How do you solve a problem like Saquon Barkley? The Packers had no answer as the running back scored three touchdowns in Philadelphia’s 34-29 opening day win. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will hopefully have been working with safety Xavier McKinney, who spent three years as a teammate of Barkley in New York, to discover a solution. A scheme that can hold up Barkley and force the pass is essential as McKinney is Jalen Hurts’s kryptonite: he has three interceptions in his past two games against the Eagles quarterback.

What Philadelphia need to do to win: If Hurts is 100% healthy then Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should look to outfox Green Bay. The Packers will be expecting the run, so the Eagles should throw the ball early to catch them off guard. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will be hungry to make the Packers’ weak secondary pay now that Jaire Alexander is on injured reserve. With the Pack set on stopping Barkley, one-on-one matchup targeting the underwhelming corner Keisean Nixon will pay dividends.

Key player: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers. Using the brilliant running back to keep the ball out of Philadelphia’s hands will be essential against a team who love to hog time of possession – the Eagles have the highest average share in the NFL. Philadelphia’s wide array of weaponry will thrive if given the majority of possession so the outgunned Packers have to be mindful and hold on to the ball with Jacobs steadily moving the chains.

Prediction: Eagles over Packers

Washington Commanders v Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 8pm EST/Monday 1am GMT)

What the Commanders need to do to win: In the most evenly matched of the wildcard games, Washington need to pick on Tampa Bay’s banged up defense. Safeties Jordan Whitehead and Christian Izien are out with the game coming too soon for cornerback Troy Hill, while corner Jamel Dean’s involvement is questionable and safety Antoine Winfield returns from a four-game layoff. The killer combination of quarterback Jayden Daniels and receiver Terry McLaurin is going to hurt the Bucs’ weakened secondary; they just need to make sure they land enough haymakers in what will likely be a high-scoring encounter.

What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Tampa Bay need to target Washington’s weak run defense with breakout rookie back Bucky Irving. The Commanders allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game this season with the league’s worst EPA per rush of 0.12. Irving, meanwhile, is a highly efficient runner working behind a strong offensive line. He leads the NFL with an 80% conversion rate on third down and racked up a ninth-placed 1,122 yards from 207 attempts. The league’s third-highest rusher Bijan Robinson needed almost 100 more attempts for just over 300 extra yards. Irving has shown the damage he can do to a weak run defense in recent meetings with Carolina, in which he rumbled for 263 yards across the two games.

Key player: Marshon Lattimore, CB, Commanders. One of the biggest personal rivalries in football is set for another bout as the former Saints corner returns from injury to attempt to stifle Mike Evans. The Bucs receiver has been ejected once, served two one-game suspensions, and racked up $100,000 in fines after dealings with Lattimore. This fight could light up the weekend.

Prediction: Commanders over Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings v LA Rams (Monday 8pm EST, Tuesday 1am BST)

What the Vikings need to do to win: The 14-3 Vikings have the most wins of any wildcard team in the history of the league, so will be confident they can handle the Rams. They may need to alter their usual defensive script though to earn a tough win on the road, although the game could be moved to Arizona due to the wildfires in LA. The problem lies in their preference of blitzing on 38.9% of plays against a master matador in quarterback Matthew Stafford. It usually works, as they get to a passer 25.3% of the time and have 49 sacks. On the other hand, Stafford has a 103.2 passer rating with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions when blitzed this season. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores needs to find another way to disrupt Stafford.
What the Rams need to do to win: Sean McVay needs to knock the stuffing out of Sam Darnold. The pressure is on the renaissance quarterback to rebound after his almighty dud against Detroit last week. The best method of stopping him will be to rough him up much like the Lions did and much like Los Angeles did in a 30-20 regular season win. Edge defender Jared Verse, the probable defensive rookie of the year, is an expert at pressuring QBs and will be hungry to add to the 1.5 sacks and three hits he put on Darnold in October.

Key player: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings. The sublime receiver has elevated Minnesota’s quarterback to heights few thought possible. His breathtaking speed and unparalleled catching ability provide a threat so great it pulls hapless defenders into his orbit, allowing teammates to roam free and Darnold even more chances to show off his cannon of an arm.

Prediction: Rams over Vikings