Not many would have predicted Nottingham Forest’s fixture against Liverpool next week being a Premier League title clash.

Last season, Forest supporters celebrated wildly as their survival was mathematically confirmed on the final day but this term fans are starting to dream of something special.

Liverpool started 2024-25 stepping into the unknown with Arne Slot in his rookie year in the Premier League, with nobody begrudging them time to adapt to life without Jürgen Klopp after his nine years at Anfield.

But next Tuesday’s match at the City Ground will see Slot’s league leaders take on the surprise package of the Premier League, with Nuno Espírito Santo’s team going from relegation candidates to dreaming of “doing a Leicester”.

Are they genuine contenders? It has happened before with Leicester City upsetting 5,000-1 odds and remarkably winning in 2016.

According to the Opta Supercomputer, Forest have a 0.01 per cent chance of emulating that Leicester team.

So you are saying there’s a chance? Here’s how the two teams compare...

The title race picture

Leicester: Claudio Ranieri’s team established a lead and it was about maintaining their distance between their rivals. Manchester City were in their final season before Pep Guardiola’s arrival – and players knew it was the end for Manuel Pellegrini. Still, Leicester’s win at the Etihad was a huge moment as there was belief they could pull off their title win. Tottenham stayed in touch until the final stage of the season when they drew with Chelsea, then ended up finishing behind second-placed Arsenal.

Forest: They will fancy bettering Leicester’s 81 points of 2016 if they carry on their form from the first half of the season. Liverpool at the City Ground is one of the big games in the second half of the campaign. They face Arsenal and Manchester City before the March international break – they will be big matches to decide where they finish in the table.

Last season, Arsenal had 40 points after 20 matches and finished as runners-up. Leicester had an identical record at this stage in 2015-16 and we all know what happened next.

The narrative

Leicester: Like Forest, they almost got relegated the season before mounting a charge. Ranieri took over a team of players with something to prove – to this day they still have a WhatsApp group called The Misfits. Jamie Vardy had worked his way from non-league football after being released by Sheffield Wednesday. Danny Drinkwater and Danny Simpson had been in the Manchester United Academy, Robert Huth originally a loan from Stoke. Go through their team and they had rejects who came together with a winning chemistry.

Forest: They have had to contend with a four-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules last season. The punishment dropped them into the relegation zone but they fought their way to safety. Forest were also upset with decisions in the defeat to Everton last term and infamously claimed the VAR was a fan of relegation rivals Luton. There is a collective spirit at the club as so much has gone against them.

The squads

Leicester: Ranieri had a settled starting line-up and it was packed with what we know now was world-class quality. Riyad Mahrez and N’Golo Kanté were unknown when they arrived at the King Power Stadium but ended up with big-money moves to other clubs. Marc Albrighton and Mahrez gave them good width. Off the bench they had dependable squad players.

Forest: For Mahrez, read Anthony Elanga. He was more well-known on his arrival, having played at Manchester United, but has been ready to take centre stage. Chris Wood has been showing as good form as Erling Haaland, assuming the goalscorer role like Vardy at Leicester. Morgan Gibbs-White is comparable to Drinkwater and there are younger players such as Elliot Anderson – a player Newcastle did not really want to lose.

The managers

Both have been underdogs among the Premier League managerial sharks who employ mind-games or make it all about their own personality. Ranieri certainly had charisma. The Italian was loved by all with his “dilly ding, dilly dong” to tell his players to wake up when they fell asleep on the pitch. Nuno’s job appeared uncertain at times when Forest were near the foot of the table last season. After his short spell at Tottenham, some may not have even expected to see him back in the Premier League after a stint with Al-Ittihad in the Saudi Pro League. His manner is understated but he clearly knows how to coach.

What they cost

Leicester did not spend much compared to amounts invested today, with Ranieri’s squad put together for not much more than £50 million. Forest, however, have been active in the transfer market since Steve Cooper took them up from the Championship. Their squad has been overhauled with value arrivals such as Ibrahim Sangaré (£30 million), Anderson (£35 million) and Gibbs-White (£25 million). According to figures by transfermarket, Forest’s squad value is around £366 million.

The big pitfall

Liverpool look like they are going to set the pace this season, which is a different scenario to 2016. They do not look like they are going to collapse. But Forest have a great chance of finishing in the Champions League places. Of the 70 teams to have 40 points or more from their first 20 games, only four have failed to finish in the top four.

The Opta computer, a projection model that estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings, believes Liverpool have an 89.3 per cent chance of winning the league as it stands. Arsenal have a 10 per cent chance, while Chelsea and City are rated at a meagre 0.3 per cent – slightly higher than Forest’s figure.