Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl. How will he perform in this year's Big Game?

The three-time Super Bowl MVP is looking to win a third straight Lombardi Trophy and, potentially, a fourth MVP award, which would move him into sole possession of second-most wins of the award ever. On Sunday, he'll face a significant challenge to accomplish either feat.

Mahomes' opponent in Super Bowl 59 is the Eagles, a team that allowed the fewest total offensive yards and second-fewest points to opponents all season. Philadelphia also ranked third in EPA per play and first in success rate allowed during the regular season, as well as first in defensive DVOA.

How will Mahomes perform against Philadelphia in the biggest game of the season? USA TODAY Sports analyzed how he played against other top-ranked defenses this year to set some expectations for Super Bowl 59.

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Which top-ranked defenses did Patrick Mahomes play?

For the purpose of this investigation, it's important to define what a "top-ranked defense" even is.

Some of the more convenient stats to use are expected points added per play (EPA/play) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). In contrast to cumulative stats like yards and points allowed per game, EPA and DVOA account for the value of a given play.

For example, a two-yard rush counts all the same in a cumulative stat like "total rushing yards allowed," whether it's on first-and-10 or fourth-and-inches. Where EPA and DVOA differ is they account for the added value that a three-yard rush has in a fourth-and-inches situation (a lot) versus the value of the same outcome on first-and-10 (very little).

This year, Mahomes played against five teams that ranked in the top 10 in either EPA/play, defensive DVOA or both at the end of the regular season. They were (in order) the Ravens, Chargers (twice), Broncos, Texans and Steelers.

Here's how his stats looked against those teams, cumulatively:

• Completion rate: 148-of-215 (68.8%)

• Passing yards: 1,592

• Yards per attempt: 7.4

• Touchdowns: 8 (+ 1 rushing)

• Interceptions: 2

• Passer rating: 98.7

• Chiefs points per game: 22.5

• Record: 6-0

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What to expect from Patrick Mahomes in the 2025 Super Bowl

Mahomes and the Chiefs were able to excel against almost every opponent in 2024 – their 15-2 record reflects that.

But even against some top defenses, Mahomes played better than the average quarterback. His average passer rating of 98.7 against the Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, Texans and Steelers is better than his own mark for the full season and would rank 12th of all NFL quarterbacks this year.

That being said, the Eagles boast a better defense by EPA/play than all of those teams besides the Broncos. Philadelphia also boasts a higher defensive DVOA and success rate allowed than any other team in the NFL. By those metrics, the challenge they'll provide in the Super Bowl is a greater one than Mahomes has faced yet this season.

However, Mahomes and the Chiefs were the underdogs in each of the last two Super Bowls they played in (and won), including against the Eagles two years ago. This year, likely in part because of Mahomes' talent and ability to come through in the most important moments, the Chiefs are favored in the game.

In the AFC championship game, Mahomes led Kansas City to its first game with more than 30 points all season, and it came when the Chiefs needed it most. The expectation from here on out is that he'll be able to do the same thing regardless of his opponent and their defensive talent.

So even though the Eagles will be the best defense he's faced all year on paper, Mahomes should be expected to perform even better than his season-long average. The numbers show that it's just what he does against top-ranked defenses.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs QB's stats ahead of the Super Bowl