The Premier League will issue disciplinary charges this week against any clubs it deems to have breached its profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) for the 2021-24 accounting period.

Under a fast-track process introduced 18 months ago clubs who have recorded losses for the first two years of the reporting cycle were required to submit their accounts for the financial year ending June 2024 to the Premier League by 31 December. The Premier League has given its financial and legal departments 14 days to study the books of those clubs in danger of a PSR breach, and is expected to issue any charges on Monday and Tuesday.

Related: Leicester at risk of another Premier League PSR charge over latest accounts

Nottingham Forest and Everton were charged with breaching spending limits for the 2020-23 period 12 months ago, which resulted in their being docked four and two points respectively by independent commissions. Those cases have established precedent that a three-point deduction is the starting sanction for a PSR breach – plus or minus points for aggravating or good behaviour – so those clubs who may have cut things fine could be in for a nervous 48 hours.

Leicester

Leicester were charged by the Premier League with a PSR breach for 2020-23 last March but the case was never heard. An independent commission accepted that because Leicester were relegated at the end of that season they were not a Premier League club when they submitted their accounts on 30 June 2023, so could not be charged.

In the hearing, however, it emerged that Leicester had been charged with a breach of £24.4m, putting them in a challenging position to comply with the regulations this year. To compound matters Leicester’s acceptable three-year loss threshold is reduced from the Premier League standard of £105m to £83m because they spent last season in the Championship, which operates stricter limits.

Leicester’s pre-tax losses for the past two years were £92.5m and £90m respectively but will have reduced significantly last season as a result of having a lower wage bill in the Championship while receiving parachute payments. In addition the club made about £115m in the past two summers by selling James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Timothy Castagne and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, as well as banking £10m in compensation for allowing Enzo Maresca to become Chelsea manager.

Leicester have expressed confidence they will comply. The finance blogger Swiss Ramble has projected an overshoot of £12m after attempting to forecast the club’s unpublished 2023-24 accounts. The Premier League’s final ruling could revolve around ancillary legal arguments, with Leicester ready to argue that promoted sides should be given the full £35m seasonal allowance after leaving the Championship.

Chelsea

Chelsea’s owners have been even more bullish in asserting they will comply with PSR despite combined pre-tax losses of £211m over the past two years, although how they have done so is a different question. Avoiding a charge may not be the end of the matter. The club escaped a breach last year by selling two hotels at Stamford Bridge for £76.5m to another company in their group, BlueCo 22, in a deal cleared by the Premier League in September.

While Chelsea have cut their wage bill significantly over the past 12 months, and raised more than £100m through the sales of Conor Gallagher, Lewis Hall and Ian Maatsen, the huge losses they are carrying mean another piece of financial dexterity may have been required. Chelsea transferred ownership of their women’s team to BlueCo 22 two days before filing their 2023-24 accounts last June, amid reports the club valued that at £150m.

As a related-party transaction that sale is subject to the Premier League’s fair-market value rules, and it has not yet been assessed. The eight-time Women’s Champions League winners Lyon were valued at £45m when the American businesswoman Michele Kang bought a majority share last summer. Inter-group sales are not permitted by Uefa so Chelsea could face a charge of breaching its financial fair play rules.

Nottingham Forest and Everton

Having been docked points last season both clubs had little margin for error this season, but appear to have shrewdly traded their way out of trouble. Forest banked £47.5m of immediate PSR profit from the sale of the homegrown striker Brennan Johnson to Tottenham 18 months ago, and their commercial income increased significantly in their first season in the Premier League, helped by lucrative kit deals with Adidas and Kaiyun Sports. Everton have had to work harder but the sales of Alex Iwobi, Lewis Dobbin and Demarai Gray should have kept them the right side of the PSR line.

Manchester United

United have published their 2023-24 accounts so it can be said with more confidence that they will not be found in breach, although judging by their willingness to listen to offers for players including Kobbie Mainoo and Alejandro Garnacho the club have little room for manoeuvre. United’s pre-tax loss quadrupled to £131m last season because of an increased wage bill, interest payments and costs associated with Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s investment, but it seems significant that since that process was completed the new part-owner has looked to slash spending.

Newcastle

Newcastle also faced a challenge to comply after combined pre-tax losses of £150m over the past two years, and only did so as a result of frantic transfer activity last June, with Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson sold to Brighton and Forest respectively within hours of the 30 June deadline. Bournemouth and Ipswich also look close to the line because of their far smaller income streams, and in the latter’s case because as new arrivals from the EFL their loss limit for the past three years is only £39m, but they are confident of complying.