A Premier League era is ending before our eyes

Blame Antonio Conte, perhaps. The former Chelsea manager was not the pioneer but he was a trailblazer. When the 2016-17 Premier League brought together one of the greatest collections of managerial talents to compete in a domestic division at the same time – Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Arsene Wenger, Jurgen Klopp, Mauricio Pochettino and the defending champion Claudio Ranieri – Conte responded by raising the bar.

Chelsea’s path to the title involved a run of 13 straight wins and an eventual total of 93 points. They were trendsetters. The next seven Premier League titles were won with 100, 98, 99, 86, 93, 89 and 91 points respectively. As the more mathematically minded will note, only two of those numbers are below 90. Each came with an asterisk: Manchester City’s 86 in the strangeness of the 2020-21 Covid season and 89 in 2022-23, when they had 88 after 36 games, with the title secured, and relaxed to concentrate on the treble instead.

With his perfectionism, Guardiola has been the master of the 90-point season and his presence was a reason to believe this would be another. If anyone was to depose City, it seemed, they would have to be almost flawless. That certainly appeared Arsenal’s approach as Mikel Arteta seemed to seek the type of efficiency that took Mourinho’s Chelsea to 95 and 91 in successive campaigns between 2004 and 2006. Instead, Arsenal have been more slipshod, injuries, red cards and mistakes all factors as they have dropped 14 points already.

The greater surprise may be that City have dropped 10, losing back-to-back games. Perhaps the bar has been lowered again. The counterargument is that City are no strangers to autumn wobbles and can then go on extended winning runs in the new year to amass another huge tally. Likewise, Liverpool have claimed all but five possible points so far; at their current rate of progress, they are on course for 97.

But Arne Slot’s team – still containing the core of the side who took 97, 99 and 92 while only earning Klopp one league title – still have the burden of proof; they may be bookmakers’ favourites now but they also feel like overachievers so far.

City, meanwhile, can be seen in different ways, even putting aside the possibility of a points deduction. They are a team who, until 10 days ago, were unbeaten in 32 league matches. Yet while that showed a formidable winning habit, results could camouflage indications they were worse last season in 2022-23. Now the combination of ageing, injuries and the colossal loss of Rodri may have weakened them further.

And so, if City are brought back to the pack, there is the possibility that the 90-point era is over; maybe temporarily, perhaps for longer. Manchester United’s treble winners famously won the title with a mere 79 points; even Arsenal’s Invincibles only got 90. It is possible something in the region of 85 would suffice now.

There are individual factors and broader trends. Rodri’s injury, like Virgil van Dijk’s in 2021-22, could destroy a title defence. But in general, perhaps the best – arguably both City and Arsenal – have got worse while others have got better. The expansion of the elite, from a big four to a big six to a big eight, has brought more clashes of the genuine powers. Last season, Aston Villa beat City and Arsenal within a few days. This year, Newcastle have held City and beaten Arsenal at St James’ Park.

But that has been accompanied by the rise of the underdogs, propelled by a combination of Premier League revenues and smart recruitment of players and managers. It may be no coincidence that City’s two defeats have come to Bournemouth and Brighton, to Andoni Iraola and Fabian Hurzeler, or that the Basque has already beaten Mikel Arteta. While it was a situation created by their ability to sell for huge fees, often to Chelsea, Brighton had the highest net spend in Europe this summer. Ipswich, who added to Tottenham’s inconsistency on Sunday, ranked third. If there were periods in 90-point seasons when the path to the title seemed like a cruise, now it can look like an obstacle course.

The general standard of the Premier League was a factor in the fall of Erik ten Hag, who lost far too many games against the mid-ranking teams. The early-season surge of Nottingham Forest, the lone team to beat Liverpool, is instructive in another way: some of Forest’s recruitment in recent years has been of the scattergun variety but now they have a starting 11 packed with fine recruits. Some, in Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, are the cast-offs from the reputedly top clubs. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are not alone in possessing footballers who look to have the quality to play for some of their supposed superiors.

If Forest are proof that, to simplify it, everyone has good players, they tap into a tactical trend: that some of the elite can be counterattacked. They are not as secure as they were. So far, only Forest and Liverpool are conceding under a goal a game, on average. In 2018-19, arguably the high watermark of the 90-point teams, Liverpool and City played 76 league games between them and only conceded 45 goals.

If the top teams are being overworked, in part by the expansion of the Champions and Europa Leagues, with the bigger Club World Cup a further complication, the middle class are emboldened. Brighton’s Hurzeler made attacking substitutions against City on Saturday. There has been a greater belief in the way clubs such as Ipswich, Brentford and Fulham have come to the Etihad Stadium and led this season, even if all ultimately lost.

Different scorelines have shown closer games. City’s goal difference peaked at +79 in 2017-18. Five of the last seven champions have scored at least 94 goals. Now no one is on course to get more than 79.

In an age of domination, both defeats and draws seemed endangered species. Now only Liverpool have not lost at least twice. Arsenal and Chelsea both have four draws. And draws cut the possible points tallies at the top. It is another reason to think that, rather than seeing at least one and maybe two teams crash through the 90-point barrier, this year the eventual champions may not need to get there.