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Numbers that show Premiership clubs are not to blame for England’s struggles

Prop Afolabi Fasogbon gestures during England A's 38-17 victory over Australia A in November
England-qualified Gloucester prop Afolabi Fasogbon is being fast-tracked as part of a ‘golden generation’ - Getty Images/Bob Bradford

Just as night follows day, an England slump inevitably spurs criticism of the Premiership.

Remember in 2018, when we wondered whether refereeing interpretations in the domestic game were at least partly to blame for a run of defeats for the national side? It was closer to the truth that Eddie Jones’s charges were being bullied at the ruck by more assertive, streetwise opponents.

The drop to 10 top-flight clubs, with a flock of prospective internationals leaving English shores for the Top 14 in France, has brought about understandable concerns. Many have worried about problem positions, exacerbated by possible blind spots in the age-group pathway, and how overseas imports could be blocking potential England players.

Notwithstanding the scope of the Premiership Cup and the Championship to nurture youngsters, fewer teams in the Premiership means less opportunity. Across the first seven rounds of league action this season, however, the numbers tell a brighter story.

All clubs above threshold

New rules introduced for 2024-25 state that each Premiership club must average 15 England-qualified players (EQPs) per match-day squad over the course of the campaign. Failure to do so could incur fines of up to £250,000.

Compiling EQP tallies for each match of the season so far required contacting clubs over several individuals, because cases are not always clear. And it is a moveable feast. Freddie Thomas, for instance, was eligible for England until Nov 23, when the 23-year-old Gloucester lock made his debut for Wales against South Africa.

There is also the question of individuals who have represented other countries before re-qualifying under World Rugby’s recent birthright regulation. Will Addison of Sale Sharks, Sam Arnold of Newcastle Falcons and Kieran Marmion of Bristol Bears come under this category because it is over three years since they played for Ireland.

Kieran Marmion has won 28 caps for Ireland
Kieran Marmion has won 28 caps for Ireland - Getty Images/David Rogers

Curiously, though, they do not count towards the Premiership’s official EQP totals until Steve Borthwick has triggered their England eligibility by applying to World Rugby. For this article, they have been counted as EQPs because England could theoretically pick them tomorrow.

These figures, therefore, are slightly enhanced. Newcastle would be averaging closer to 18 and Bristol around 16 if Arnold and Marmion were not counted as EQPs. Even so, all 10 clubs are above the threshold:

Leicester Tigers are flirting closest with the bottom line of 15, but have only dipped below it in one Premiership game: late October’s win over Saracens at StoneX Stadium when their England cohort were unavailable due to a training camp in Girona. Indeed, there have been only two more instances of a Premiership side fielding fewer than 15 EQPs this term; the Saracens squad who hosted Exeter Chiefs in round four and the Bristol Bears squad who travelled to Harlequins on Friday night.

Are the rules fit for purpose?

Now, these rules are not universally popular. Some see them as an artificial measure that can promote mediocre players on the basis of their England eligibility. Certainly, EQP status is viewed as a useful bonus by recruiters. Bath were pleased to discover that Ross Molony, the former Leinster second row, was an EQP.

It might be fairer to implement something more akin to the JIFF (Joueurs Issus des Filières de Formation) system in France. JIFF status – the acronym which describes the regulation of home-grown players appearing in French matchday squads – is earned indefinitely by being affiliated to a club academy for three years and clubs must average 16 per week in a match-day 23. Something similar in the Premiership would mitigate how sides can be punished perversely when their academy products are overlooked by England and selected for different nations.

Consider cases such as that of Wales centre Nick Tompkins at Saracens, or Josh Bayliss at Bath, another ex-England Under-20 player who is now scrapping for a place in Scotland’s back row. Gus Warr and Arron Reed have been propelled towards Scotland honours by coaching and game-time at Sale. Dino Lamb of Harlequins has become an Italy international. All five of these players, clearly, are no longer EQPs.

Having four more teams does make it easier for the Top 14 to sustain a JIFF system that encourages clubs to develop players, even if one day they could line up against France. But the Premiership is offering choices to Borthwick as it is.

Problem positions being repaired

There does seem to have been a concerted effort around the country to fast-track props and to provide senior game-time for members of the England Under-20 team who won the World Championship last summer. More on the latter point later.

First, here is the average number of EQPs to have appeared in each shirt number per round over the first seven rounds of the Premiership – a decent sample size. The maximum possible figure here would be 10, if every Premiership club fielded an EQP in that position every week:

This is not an exact science for several reasons. Shirt numbers do not equate directly to positions. As an example, Fraser Dingwall started for both England and England A at 12 this year, but usually wears 13 for Northampton Saints and came off the bench in the 22 shirt on Saturday against Gloucester. Some clubs put a reserve wing in the No 23, others an additional back-rower. Two EQPs at the same club may be rotated in the same position.

All that said, we can get an idea of which positions are flush with EQPs. Wing and hooker are particularly well stocked. By adding the respective averages for shirt No 2 (9.29) and 16 (9.43), one can expect to see 18 or 19 England-qualified hookers on any given Premiership weekend. And Kepu Tuipulotu, who has enjoyed some storming form for Bath in the Premiership Cup, has not yet been blooded in the league. He will aim to represent England Under-20 this season, though his senior eligibility is more complicated. Tuipulotu could also represent Wales or Tonga.

Of the 62 props to have appeared in the Premiership this season, 43 are EQPs. The combined average of England-qualified looseheads (adding one and 17) per round is almost 14 out of 20. The combined average of tightheads (adding three and 18) is even higher, at a touch under 15. Last weekend, all 10 Premiership clubs started an EQP at tighthead, from Asher Opoku-Fordjour (Sale) and Afo Fasogbon (Gloucester) at one end of the age scale to Max Lahiff (Bristol) and Fraser Balmain (Saracens) at the other. Joe Heyes (Leicester) and Marcus Street (Exeter Chiefs), both aged 25, sit somewhere in the middle.

The average for EPQs starting at No 8 (8.57) is healthy, and suggests that Borthwick could re-think England’s current back-row cohort if he deems it necessary. The average for EQPs starting at openside (7.14) is also strong and reinforces the progression in an area that looked bare a decade ago.

Centre is a contentious issue that Borthwick brought up in January. But, even with Bristol sensation Benhard Janse van Rensburg unlikely to qualify for England because he is tied by his South Africa Under-20 involvement – which is also true for back-rowers Jacques Vermeulen (Exeter) and Hanro Liebenberg (Leicester) – candidates have put themselves forward.

There has been an average of 6.14 EQPs starting at inside centre per round this season. Will Butt (Bath) and Joe Woodward (Leicester) have emerged in convincing style. One must also remember that Max Ojomoh (Bath), Zack Wimbush (Exeter) and Olly Hartley (Saracens) are yet to feature in the Premiership because of injury. All three are intriguing prospects.

Warning signs and solutions

Numbers six and 10 (both 5.43) are the lowest numbers on the list of EQP averages. Remarkably, in round four in mid-October, only two starting blindside flankers were EQPs: naturalised Newcastle veteran Philip van der Walt and Jack Clement of Gloucester. The other eight across the Premiership? Ernst van Rhyn, Vermeulen, Steven Luatua, Josh Bayliss, Liebenberg, Josh Kemeny, Lamb and Juan Martín González.

The task of replacing Courtney Lawes was tricky enough already for Borthwick, who does deserve credit for taking proactive steps. He identified Ethan Roots as a quick fix, promoted Chandler Cunningham-South during the 2024 Six Nations and fielded Ollie Chessum at blindside flanker as well. Borthwick takes a prominent role in selection for England A fixtures, and Tom Pearson has started the last two in the No 6 shirt. The England head coach is thought to have met last month with Junior Kpoku, the England Under-20 player currently at Racing 92.

Of course, it will not just be Bath supporters screaming the name of Ted Hill into their screens at this point. Standing 6ft 5in, with sprinting speed to match many back-three players, Hill is the sort of athlete England does not readily produce. Jack Kenningham, a springy line-out jumper as well as disruptive on the floor, has many admirers.

Ted Hill is banging on the door for a chance at international level
Ted Hill is banging on the door for a chance at international level - Getty Images/David Rogers

The landscape of England-qualified fly-halves is worth monitoring, not least because more than one source questioned where the next No 10 of Test calibre will come through. Finn Russell, Gareth Anscombe, Handré Pollard and AJ MacGinty take up four starting slots, with Jarrod Evans and Robert du Preez, two more non-EQPs, the most polished back-ups in the Premiership. Fergus Burke, who came from Super Rugby to replace Owen Farrell at Saracens, is an EQP but is still settling.

Charlie Atkinson started for England A twice in 2024, yet appears to be in a chasing pack of one slightly behind a front-line trio of Marcus Smith, George Ford and Fin Smith. Again, Borthwick does look to have recognised the dangers. He used up three enhanced elite player squad (EPS) contracts on Ford and the two Smiths. Losing one of them to France could cause England to be plunged into difficulty very quickly if another picks up an injury.

‘Golden generation’ being pushed through

George Skivington’s outlook towards picking Fasogbon has been “let’s get on with it”. While the young powerhouse is bound to have tough afternoons, Gloucester are committed to supporting him through thick and thin. Sale have had the same attitude with Opoku-Fordjour – the game is the best teacher. Those two have both accumulated seven Premiership appearances this season, including five starts each, and over 350 minutes of game-time.

Among the England Under-20 world champions, Henry Pollock is next with five Premiership outings and two starts, comprising 256 minutes for Northampton. Ben Redshaw of Newcastle has accrued 213 minutes as well. Billy Sela, the tighthead who has had a couple of bench cameos for Bath, excites Johann van Graan. In total, 10 members of the triumphant England Under-20 squad have featured this Premiership season, a list that does not include players such as Archie McParland, the scrum-half who came off the bench for England A after helping the Under-20s to the Six Nations title last season.

Finn Carnduff, the outstanding captain of last year’s Under-20 crop, is understood to have been set for a Leicester start before suffering an injury from which he should return in the coming weeks. A rangy and intuitive forward, he has the athletic profile to be a Test match blindside flanker.

Champions Cup action will hold up a mirror to the quality of Premiership clubs over the coming fortnight. In many cases, they will be underdogs. Reaching a semi-final, one suspects, would be a fine result for the league. Either way, the clubs cannot be accused of failing to field players who are eligible for England.