That’s now five straight defeats for Ruud van Nistelrooy and it’s officially Leicester City’s worst run of league form since a six-game losing streak at the start of the last relegation season.

Under Steve Cooper, City never lost more than twice in a row. They took 10 points from 12 matches under the Welshman, while it’s now four points from seven under van Nistelrooy. Inevitably, questions will be asked over whether the managerial change has improved City.

Ultimately, survival is a matter of points and City are picking them up at a slower rate under van Nistelrooy. However, the Dutchman has made the fair claim that he is building a “foundation for points”. It’s a patient approach and one he believes will bear fruit and achieve more sustainable results.

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At Aston Villa, despite City losing again, there was further evidence of those foundations being built. It starts with the defensive structure and City are definitely improving. They’ve conceded an average of 13 shots per game inside their own box this season, but in recent matches they have been bringing that number down considerably.

Leon Bailey’s 76th-minute winner was just the fourth shot Villa had from inside City’s penalty area. In fact, at that point, the game was even on the balance of good chances. City probably deserved to be level. It was only when the game became stretched as City chased an equaliser and Villa exploited the space that the stats behind the game suggested the hosts had been the better side.

The underlying numbers are getting better too. In the past four losses, City have scored two goals and conceded 10. But on expected goals, it’s 3.2 for and 5.7 against.

In four of van Nistelrooy’s seven matches, City have either been better, level or within 0.5 expected goals of their opponent, yet claimed just two results. Under Cooper, they were better, level or within 0.5 expected goals for five of 12 fixtures, and earned six results.

But under Cooper there was a chaos element that emerged regularly and that seemed to help City. It wasn’t that there was an absence of tactics, but just less rigidity to them. There was less control, the game was more back and forth, and so there were more moments where City could get the bounce of the ball. It didn’t feel sustainable, but it was more successful in picking up points than the more structured approach van Nistelrooy is taking.

Because van Nistelrooy is losing more often, there needs to be trust that his process will eventually come good. The players seem like they are buying into it. The fans, to a degree, are too.

But time is ticking. The foundations alone clearly aren’t enough. Leicester need to build the house on top, and quickly. The Premier League season is already too far gone, and the ground isn't stable enough, for this to be a long-term project.

Justin guilt should be spread but change still required

Not for the first time this season, James Justin was the man on everybody's lips after the final whistle, supporters deeming him at fault for Bailey’s match-deciding goal. His name wasn’t on van Nistelrooy’s lips though, the manager refusing to directly point fingers at his own players.

All van Nistelrooy would say was that it was “clear” where the problem was for the winner. But that seems a simplification of the incident too.

Justin didn’t cover himself in glory, of course. He dribbled backwards, searching for a route out. At different stages, the pass to Conor Coady or Boubakary Soumare was on. He decided against those and went deeper towards his own byline.

But when he eventually did play the pass, it wasn’t poor. It was neither too soft so as to leave Jordan Ayew stranded, nor too hard so as to test his first touch. It was a decent weight and invited the winger onto it. He simply wasn’t as sharp as Ian Maatsen, who nipped in.

Justin arguably made a bigger error when he then dived into try to regain possession straight away, rather than cover his box. He missed the challenge, allowing Maatson to breeze into the penalty area.

When pushed on the incident, van Nistelrooy said: “It’s about handling the situation as a team and clearing away from danger.” Is that a suggestion that Justin should have launched the ball up the pitch or out of play to safety? Certainly, a prevailing attitude of ‘if in doubt, kick it out’ among supporters suggests that’s what the majority of the fanbase feel he should have done.

But that’s not how City play. The full-backs served passes into the feet of their wingers under pressure all match. It’s a riskier, but better way of breaking out of defence and moving into the attack.

Although he had put himself in more trouble than necessary, Justin still manoeuvred out of the pressure from Jacob Ramsey enough to get his head up and see a pass could be played. It wasn’t the kind of desperate situation where a lump into the stands was absolutely required.

But the level of culpability that should be attributed to Justin doesn’t change the fact that he is out of form and that he does need a break from the team. He’s played 250 more minutes than any other City player this season. He’s been pushed to play his way out of a poor streak and it’s not working.

Van Nistelrooy’s options are limited with Ricardo Pereira injured, but either a new right-back needs to come in or Hamza Choudhury needs to play there in the FA Cup and give him a chance to warm to the position again, to see if he can operate there in league matches. With the heat that’s on him, Justin needs time out of the side.

Rare van Nistelrooy misjudgement on subs is costly

It may have helped City in that moment if they’d had fresher legs on the pitch. Maatsen had been introduced seconds earlier, and so was full of energy, allowing him to steal in front of Ayew, who would not have been anywhere near as sharp as he was at kick-off after 75 minutes of running.

Aside from the injury substitution for Jannik Vestergaard, van Nistelrooy didn’t go to his bench until a triple change in the 82nd minute. That’s a surprise given his previous approach to subs.

In his first five games in charge, van Nistelrooy used all but one of his available 25 subs, and 15 of those came on before the 65th minute. He was being proactive in his changes.

Against Man City, the first change didn’t come until the 70th minute, and the second not until the 85th. But not only were City playing well, they were having the majority of the ball.

Against Villa, City had 40 per cent of the ball. They’d done far more chasing. And yet van Nistelrooy stuck with the same, tiring players.

It felt like a rare misjudgement from the manager. City had been on the backfoot following Stephy Mavididi’s equaliser and nothing was done to try to change that. Van Nistelrooy needs to get back to making earlier subs.

Ayew provides big moments but City still suffer

For the second away game in a row, Ayew’s inclusion over Facundo Buonanotte was questioned, and for the second away game in a row, the Ghanaian delivered in a key moment. After scoring at Anfield, he produced a great interception, surge, and cross to set up City’s equaliser.

Aside from his involvement in Villa’s winner, Ayew had a good game. Twice in the first half he put in similar crosses to the one for the goal, but Jamie Vardy was hanging at the back rather than rushing to the near post.

But even with a decent display, the selection will still be questioned. Because in attack, City were far from flowing like they were against Manchester City, when Buonanotte started, and far less of a threat. The silky Argentinian makes City more fluid on the front foot and that in turn makes players like Bilal El Khannouss better too. With Ayew playing, it can be a little stop-start.

Van Nistelrooy pointed to Ayew’s experience and leadership when questioned on the selection. Those are qualities that can help a team, and they’re not part of Buonanotte’s game. But are they enough to justify the impact it has on City’s attack? They didn’t have a shot after Mavididi’s equaliser.

Although, what doesn’t help Buonanotte’s cause is that he struggles to make an impact off the bench. In all of his appearances as a substitute, he’s not influenced the game. Whereas Ayew, because of that experience, usually does make a difference when he’s introduced.

Van Nistelrooy said that Buonanotte is a “vital” player for his team. With three home games in a row coming up, he needs to show that in his selection.

Context to form shows van Nistelrooy needs backing

There are bits of context in the debate between van Nistelrooy and Cooper that have so far not been mentioned. Firstly, there are the fixtures. Five of van Nistelrooy’s seven games have come against sides currently sitting in the top half.

And there’s the injuries too. Van Nistelrooy has had to manage without Mads Hermansen, Ricardo, Wilfred Ndidi and Abdul Fatawu, four players who would arguably be starting if they were fit.

And yet despite all that, there is evidence that City are getting better. So now he needs help. City made the decision to change managers early enough that the new man would get a transfer window to mold the squad. With a few additions, van Nistelrooy should be able to build on those foundations more quickly. He needs backing from the top.

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