Early Friday morning, as Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was preparing for a meeting with head coach Sean McVay, a league source with significant interest in this offseason’s QB carousel offered a prediction and theory on the story that had dominated the start of the NFL scouting combine: Stafford and the Rams would stay together in 2025; a financial middle ground would be found; and while Stafford would never say it publicly, the compromise would showcase that sometimes elite players do learn from the mistakes of their peers.

In this case Stafford wasn’t going to fall into the same trap that has swallowed some of the precious final years of Aaron Rodgers’ career, leaving the future Hall of Famer in search of a way to bookend his NFL legacy with something other than his spectacular failure with the New York Jets.

“They played each other [late in the 2024 season] and I know the respect Matthew has for Aaron,” the source said. “I don’t think it’s lost on him what happened with Aaron and the Jets. [Heading into their late December game] Matthew was getting asked about Aaron and I’m sure there were mental notes taken — especially with Matthew knowing there would be some career decisions to make this offseason.”

“When it’s [crunch] time, I think Matthew will know his best opportunity to finish on his terms and winning terms will be [with the Rams].”

Ultimately, the source guessed correctly. Several hours later, the Rams announced they’d reached an agreement to keep Stafford in place for the 2025 season. And just like that, the other future Hall of Fame quarterback in the winter of his career has avoided the kind of legacy-capping dice roll that is currently defining Rodgers’ offseason search for redemption.

Stafford was a big domino in QB market

It’s the first key moment in this offseason’s quarterback shuffling, sending out ripples that impact not only Stafford and the Rams, but also Rodgers, the New York Giants, the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans and possibly the incoming rookie quarterback class. Consider:

• With Stafford sticking with the Rams, it removes a potential destination for Rodgers, who sources said would have been under serious consideration as a Stafford replacement in Los Angeles.
  

• Rodgers now becomes a candidate for the Giants, who are — at this point — seeking a veteran who can win games in 2025 for a front office and coaching staff that is on shaky ground.
  

• The Raiders and Steelers could have their dynamics changed, with Stafford having been the top veteran target in Las Vegas and a long-shot goal for Pittsburgh. Now the Raiders and Steelers will consider Rodgers, with the Pittsburgh situation potentially impacting Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who are still in play to be the franchise’s starter in 2025.
  

• With Stafford off the board, the Raiders are still in play to potentially draft a rookie quarterback, possibly impacting either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, as well as the Titans, who own the No. 1 pick in the draft and could entertain dealing it to a quarterback-hungry suitor.

That’s the kind of gravity Stafford’s decision had on the back-channel quarterback talks at the start of the combine, which had a slow start largely because everyone was seemingly waiting to understand if the jobs for the Rams, Giants or Raiders would be open by the end of the week.

Money wasn't the only factor in Rams, Stafford deal

So how did it end up coming back together in Los Angeles? The best way I can describe it would be to point to what happened with Brandon Aiyuk and the San Francisco 49ers last offseason. Wanting a market-level contract extension that the 49ers weren’t initially willing to give, Aiyuk asked for permission to line up trade partners. The 49ers gave him the green light, but always kept the door open for a return — which some in the organization were confident would happen after Aiyuk got a look at the organizations willing to give him the contract he wanted.

By the end of the process, Aiyuk could have stamped a deal with the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns or Steelers. Instead of picking one, he defaulted to his preference at the start of his offseason extension pursuit: To try and get his deal done in San Francisco. That’s ultimately what happened, with a market-level deal that was delivered at least in part because the 49ers got an extended look in training camp practices at what the offense looked like without a healthy Aiyuk in it.

There were parallels to that whole saga with the Rams and Stafford, too. The Rams knew he and his family were settled in their Southern California life and community. Moving to a new city or possibly spending time apart over the course of the 2025 season and maybe 2026 as well would be a difficult choice to make. They also knew that the teams willing to give Stafford the salary bump he sought could not match the very young and talented roster that McVay and general manager Les Snead had built in Los Angeles. So it would ultimately come down to one overriding question: If the Rams kicked in some more money, would the financial difference between their offer and a one- or two-year deal with the Raiders or Giants be enough to overcome a significant life and family change, as well as a career gamble that could end with Stafford following in Rodgers' footsteps?

The answer was no.

Stafford has seen the other side of the fence when things are very bad. Parts of his Detroit Lions experience taught him that. He wasn’t going to find another McVay anywhere else, let alone another Puka Nacua or the assembly of young defensive players who are positioned to take a big step forward for the Rams into 2025.

Conversely, the Rams were also put into a position where they had to consider their options without Stafford. Could a cut-rate Rodgers give them 90 percent of what they had in Stafford? Could a cheap Jimmy Garoppolo give them 85 percent of the performance? And what would that look like? Was it worth risking the development of Nacua, who is still on a dirt-cheap contract and looking like he’s ready to take his place among the top two or three wideouts in the NFL?

Frankly, these are legacy questions for Stafford and the Rams, especially when the franchise looks close to being a Super Bowl team again. Changing that now just to save $10 million in 2025 could be catastrophic. And that’s without even getting into the conversation about how it looks to have McVay part company with yet another quarterback who was very successful for him.

Now that conversation won’t have to be had, and the Rams and Stafford got a real chance to contemplate what life would be like without each other in 2025. And all with a silver lining of both sides handling it in a way that wasn’t messy or contentious, which sends a message to other players across the league about what kind of organization the Rams have matured into since a less-than-ideal breakup with Jared Goff.

So they move ahead. Unlike Aaron Rodgers, Stafford will never have to wonder what might have happened if he’d found a way to stick it out one more year. This time, the legacy gamble was shelved, and 2025 will become a study in what staying put looks like, rather than wading into an unknown that could turn out far, far worse than anyone imagined.