Arriving in Australia in the ember weeks of 2024, the Indian Test team is in an unusual position. They are, in a sense, defending champions. Starting in 1947, Asian teams toured Australia 30 times in a row without winning a series. Most of the time they didn’t come close: Australia won 24, six drawn. It was January 2019 in Sydney, after more than seven decades, that India’s run mountain while leading the series forced the home team to bat for a draw. India finished 2-1 and the impassable was overcome. Two summers later, thanks to the vagaries of a new touring program, India returned and did it again, this time sealing the same scoreline with a comeback run chase for the ages in Brisbane.

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India became the subcontinent team that figured out how to win in Australia, taking down the first-choice home bowling attack both times in the process. Then last year, when hosting was reversed, Australia got swatted in Nagpur and Delhi to let India keep a grip on the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in the briefest time possible, just one more series win in India for a juggernaut that was unbeatable at home for a dozen years.

Look at things this way and India should be favourites, the team their opponents couldn’t match in either theatre. But throw in other factors and this conception doesn’t gel. The long span of history still outweighs a dual instance across two years. Had India done the same in other tough arenas, things would feel different, but cricket has had few teams for all seasons. Across the span of beating Australia, the same Indian team lost both Tests of a brief trip to New Zealand, then the World Test Championship final to the same opponent in England. They twice fumbled a chance for a first series win in South Africa, going down 2-1 before a shortened next series spurned the chance for a decider at 1-1.

The closest they came to being a power around the globe was England in 2021, again leading a series against an old rival 2-1, but this time having a fifth Test to play. At that point the Indian players bailed out with some combination of pandemic anxiety, fatigue, and worries about quarantine. When they attempted to finish the job a year later, a team with momentum under Virat Kohli had instead to go from a standing start under Rohit Sharma, a timid England under Joe Root was now adrenaline-charged by Ben Stokes, and the moment was lost.

Finally, that home record of a dozen unbeaten years came to an end this month in ignominious fashion. New Zealand again, a team that despite the disparity in resources is consistently less cowed by India than others. Not just scraping a win off the back of some draws or a short series, but beating the home titans three times out of three, including bowling India out for 46 and 156 to set up the first two matches, then 121 to seal the third.

In that span since 2012, Home India has been a great Test force, and a couple of those recent overseas disappointments going their way would have removed the caveat of the adjective. But it’s interesting talking about the nature of teams given that the components change, and certainly for Away India there has never been a cohesive side. Home India has had Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja rolling through opponents, and needed only a local support cast. Away India has had Kohli with the bat and often little else.

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So is there any point looking at recent Indian achievements to project what the coming series will bring? The clinching team in Brisbane in 2021 was famously drawn from the far ends of the squad’s bench, but nine of that XI will likely be gone from the team this week at Perth. Rohit and Shubman Gill are missing temporarily, Washington Sundar seems an unlikely pick. Only Rishabh Pant to keep wicket is a lock, while one would assume that fast bowler Mohammed Siraj will join him but that will depend on the bowling configuration.

Such are the vagaries of Indian selection. Sarfaraz Khan is the new guy, who made 150 three Test matches ago batting at four. So of course his next three hits were at six, seven, and eight, he didn’t make many, and now he’s likely to be dropped for Dhruv Jurel. Devdutt Padikkal has played one Test and will now bat at three in one of the biggest series in India’s calendar, with his spot depending on Gill’s injury. Yashasvi Jaiswal is the new opening sensation who has emerged in the last 18 months. In the bowling support ranks, Harshit Rana and Nitish Reddy would be on debut, Akash Deep and Prasidh Krishna have seven Tests between them.

The veterans category has Kohli, Ashwin, Jadeja, Jasprit Bumrah and KL Rahul, none of whom made it to Brisbane in 2021. Australia will field the same bowling attack, three series running, though the batting has turned over. Does it still mean anything to say that India won last time? More like, this is a new challenge for a largely new bunch of players, who will still face the difficulty of trying to outweigh Australia’s long history against touring teams. Their task is steeper, too, with five Tests instead of four – winning two matches may no longer cut it. They can look at last time to remind themselves that the unheralded can do the unexpected, but only as we all look at stories of who came before us. If they manage to emulate that, perhaps it will be less a sequence, more a reminder that anomalies can coincide.