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The ridiculous set of Champions League results that would stop Arsenal qualifying for last 16

Arsenal being drawn into the Champions League
-Credit:VALERY HACHE/AFP via Getty Images


Arsenal have all-but qualified for the Champions League last 16 heading into the final matchweek of the league phase.

The Gunners have amassed 16 points from seven games to sit third in the table, with five wins, one draw and one solitary defeat to date. Mikel Arteta's side are three points clear of the team in ninth place, who are Aston Villa.

In the newly reformed league phase, the top eight teams go straight through to the last 16 with the teams finishing from ninth to 24th taking part in a two-legged play-off. The teams from ninth to 16 will be seeded and will play against a team who finishes between 17th and 24th.

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Arsenal have all-but avoided those extra two games, although there is a very slim chance they could yet slip out of the top eight on an action-packed final night of league phase action.

All 36 teams will be playing at the same time across Europe tonight as we find out who will be in the last 16 proper and who needs play-off matches to get there.

For Arsenal not to qualify there would have to be, quite frankly, a ridiculous set of results in tonight's matches.

If Arsenal draw with or beat Spanish side Girona on Wednesday night they will automatically qualify for the last 16. A defeat leaves things out of their hands, although slipping into the play-offs remains highly unlikely.

Ten teams are within three points of Arsenal in the league table, meaning the Gunners could be overhauled in the top eight. However, six of those ten teams are three points behind the Gunners.

That means for Arsenal not to qualify, six of the ten teams behind them in the table would have to win and they would have to overturn quite the goal difference too.

The fixtures

Inter vs Monaco

Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid

Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan

Barcelona vs Atalanta

Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Praha

Aston Villa vs Celtic

Lille vs Feyenoord

Brest vs Real Madrid

The teams in bold are the ones who can catch Arsenal. Obviously Inter play Monaco and Lille play Feyenoord and both teams can't win, meaning only one of them in each fixture can overtake the Gunners.

That means four of the other six teams also have to win to overhaul Arsenal. And of the teams who need goal difference to be in their favour too, Lille, Feyenoord and Brest only have a goal difference currently of +2, while Monaco are only at +3, in comparison to Arsenal's +12. Villa have +5 and Leverkusen have +6. So not only would these teams have to win and the Gunners have to lose, but there would also have to be a huge goal swing on the night.

In conclusion, you can rest easy tonight, Gunners fans.